Yes. I try to know basic information about an event before I bet it.

I generally don't indulge models where I'm pulling a random win %, but have no idea how to adjust for the potential of overbetting rendering the whole exercise inane.

This was widely known.

"Floyd Mayweather Jr. is worth plenty, of course, but high value assets do not always translate to cash to pay the IRS."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertw...-release-yours

Yeah it's better to just throw away profitable models because even though you know they'll win you can't precisely say exactly how much they'll win by until real time betting/testing but who has time for that?

How do you even know its winning if you don't know the degree its winning?

Being well over 2 standard deviations above break even has been reliable

So you are able to model the SD of your results compared to ???, but can't make an adjustment to account for systematic bias?

Yes. And the guy I was responding to asked "lol are you serious" to a statement that FM was in debt leading up to the fight. I was responding to him in case he didn't know. Maybe he was being sarcastic..

I was being serious

don't believe everything you read

forbes is a ****ing joke

Are you claiming that the tax hearing didn't actually happen?

It's well known that a wealthy person going from say 100MM to 50MM creates an even greater sense of urgency/desperation than a normie going broke.

See Also: Billy Walters

are you claiming they audited him?

otherwise this is all speculation

aka bs

They have filed a 22.5m lien.

so what?

once again you are just assuming he would pay it if he had it

Yes. I'm assuming he'd rather pay it, instead of go to jail then pay even more.

Was discussing this epic event with a buddy last night. He couldn't believe the #s I was throwing around. Still in awe.

LDO

'It turned out to be the most heavily bet fight ever and an opportunity of a lifetime for professional gamblers.'

How much are we betting on Mayweather at -1200 vs. Paul?

One of the greatest ever (who's past his prime) boxing a dude that lost to a youtuber (who's going to be bigger but that's it)....unless Floyd trips on a banana peel this is going to be an easy win.

Does anyone know what % of boxing matches end with "oopsies" (like an accidental DQ etc.)...because other then that %, Floyd is a lock. (for mma I'm thinking of accidental illegal knees like Aljo vs. Yan, or Jones' illegal elbows on Matt, etc.)

Wow is -1200 serious there? I feel like Paul will be an easier fight in comparison to the McGee for fight. I feel this fight should be like -5000 or more for Mayweather honestly.

Good question how much? Know some about LP have followed on off through last few years kid is athletic and well it ends right there for me. Go back to 2nd KSI fight he took a small uppercut that rocked and buckled his knees and i just started to laugh. Kid bit off some much more then he can chew here because Money is going to hurt him and KO him as well imo.

Money at -1200 i like it but it is unsanctioned or whatever so would not go farm even though it screams it because i agree i think Money flat out KO's LP.

Maybe Logan can put a giant L on the bottom of his left shoe then a giant P on the bottom of the right shoe so when Money tells him Its my bike! He still gets some attention because apparently getting KO'd by Money pays well.

You're basically betting on the fight not being fixed if you take Floyd here

That said as much as he wants/needs money I don't think he'd ever do anything to jeopardize his zero

Also re Yan/Aldo, describing the illegal knee as 'accidental' is a bit generous lol

But yeah I can't imagine a DQ being common here and if it is it's unlikely to be on Floyd's side

The only worry at all is a fix which is obv rampant in boxing and yes this is a freak show but I doubt Floyd would give away his legacy for a fix here, if he was ever going to take a dive surely Conor or Pac would have been a better spot to not against the random youtuber, it would completely destroy Floyd's legacy to lose. Seems a pretty safe bet he wins this one. Jake Paul seems to be the more serious boxer of the two Pauls in that he can at least throw a punch and beat an actual athlete and an actual fighter (granted arguably the worst striker in MMA history)

Hopefully there's enough casual money we see -600 or whatever at fight time somewhere like the -350 that was around on Floyd vs Conor

True price has to be something like -5000 surely and most of that 2% equity comes from fixes/disqualifications/random injury to Floyd in early r1 like he blows out his ACL or something

Mayweather is -2049 on the book I usually use, and you can't bet on him. I'd bet an lol small amount on him at that line...it's +EV just wouldn't want to lock up my money for that long.

Anyone locking up their money on a -2000 line earlier than fight day is an idiot

Bovada is still -1200 on Floyd. (+700 on Paul, since Bovada really likes juice.) I don't know enough about boxing to say what's fair, but I'm skeptical of you guys saying it's a lock-of-the-year -5000 contest. I think people generally underestimate how important weight is in boxing, so Paul's extra 50 pounds, to go along with his extra 6", and being 26 vs 44 years old, would make me pretty wary about dumping a kelly-sized bet at -1200. Is there any size where you think Paul has a 10%+ chance to win? Meaning if Paul were 6'6" 240, would you still say he loses 90%+?

Can get -1000 PBF over here