WTF is this? I made my biggest bet of the year on this 'fight', so I don't know what you're blabbering about. Go read my pre-fight posts and tell me I didn't have a clear position. So odd. Yes, I thought the true line should've been closer to -5000. No, I didn't bet most of my roll. LOL me I suppose.

Does anyone here think if conor trained boxing since he was 5 would be a top 5 boxer in ireland?

Yeah and if he boxed since age of one he would be #1

Seems pretty likely given he won 3 rounds against Floyd with 6 months training and reached the top in MMA which is what he actually dedicated his life to. Not a lock, but i'd take yes over no in a hypothetical. Hell, he might be a top 5 boxer in Ireland now, there's a big difference between being 'top 5 in small country' and 'can beat Floyd Mayweather'

Ahahahahahhaha

Do you think it's an obvious yes or no? You're the one that asked the question.

For what it's worth I had my largest bet ever in terms of risk on Floyd at -3xx average with some TKO at -13x, 10-15% range of bankroll between the two

I had a third of my roll on Floyd. I find it bizarre I had what many of your consider an outlandish estimate of Floyd win %, yet I wagered more money than the bulk of you?

It makes it hard to take these type of posts (especially after the fight) seriously in light of the facts.

I had something like 13% of my roll on Floyd so it's not like it was an insignificant percentage (yes, i'm one of the poors and all that but it was still a low five figure amount). Two thirds of it straight up, one third on the TKO line.

I agree that anyone who bet sub 5% probably made a mistake, but a third is still pretty aggressive even for a phenomenal spot especially on a sport as corrupt as boxing.

Out of curiosity what % did most people bet if they care to share?

I thought the true line was in the -1000 to -2500 range pre-fight (pretty sure I said -2000 but too lazy to go check post and obviously with a low degree of certainty due to the unique nature of the event)

In hindsight, it's probably less than -2000 but more than -1000? Hard to say.

If only Kelly criterion handled a level of certainty around a median estimate, if only.

Do none of you guys have 20 30 40% on the line at any given time on the daily ?

How do you make any betting

If you are risking 13% on an event where you think the outcome occurs more than 9/10 times then what about **** then 1% ?

I just don't understand why we're having this conversation after the fight. I bet a third because I was being conservative. I had one of the most conservative estimates here (which I'm being widely ridiculed for) and then bet .5 Kelly. Yet here we are, where I'm an actual expert on the subject, but every random comes out of the woodwork.

We even have disagreement that Conor outperformed expectations! (Which is completely absurd considering he was down to +160 and clearly won the first three rounds.)

thremp,

this whole 'I'm an expert' schtick is so laughable, especially when you seem to be having a ton of trouble understanding what you actually even saw take place in the fight.

Yeti,

Professionals almost never actually watch the events. I'm curious why the odds moved heavily in Conor's favor during the fight if he wasn't exceeding expectations. What is your HOT TAKE? (As if any of your posts weren't absurd.)

All the best on that 30k wager for FREE MONEY. Maybe that really is half your BR tho! In which case CONGRATS!

Great bet,however(and i am fairly novice comparing with you guys at this phase)33% seems to much to me.
I taught repeatability was one of the main premises of Kelly Criterion and this was clearly a one spot scenario..
What was your taught process behind that bet,just assessing your perceived edge and bombing half kelly?

Kelly is not just for repeatable scenarios.

And yes. What else do you do other than 1) estimate edge 2) bet?

I suppose: 1) Estimate edge 2) Don't bet 3) Post on message board is a prominent play, but I'd rather have food to eat. E-dap don't buy sammies.

Maybe a bit off topic but I'm curious about something. How do you determine how much of your net worth is considered your bankroll? I run into betting maxes pretty quick for the bets I do, so I can get by with a bankroll that isn't all big in comparison to n.w.

But for an event like this when you can get so much down I feel like I am using a smaller Kelly percentage. Just curious how you approach this... or maybe bankroll is very close to n.w?

Kelly roll is nw + what you can beg, borrow, steal, + future income streams

Evert sports bet is a one spot scenario.

So much this.

Thremp, I've got nothing against you personally. I think you're a pro bettor, right? I am not, I just do it to make some extra dough. You are a better bettor than I, but you most def are less knowledgeable about boxing. Let's revisit this exchange....

I'm going to kill myself when I bust my bankroll and have to get a job. (I'm not really willing to have children and sell them as child slaves to fund another .3% on my bets.) So in my case money on gambling sites = kelly BR.

Rich,

One of us made a big bet on this fight based on actual estimates they believe in and do so for a living, the other of us made a bet of a random amount of money and then rants on a message board after the fact.

I mean... everyone who "watches boxing" and is a "boxing expert" manages to make a pittance on the fight, but the pros clean up while basically never watching? Weird!

I'm not arguing who made more money. Not looking to keep this going. Good luck to you, sir. I hope you keep killing the books.

I'm the same way and this is actually how I do it too. Is there a precise way you determine when to cashout other than not keeping more on the sites than you feel comfortable with?

My point is if half your money is on sites, it is like you are really betting 1/4 Kelly. It's is obv much easier to bet 1/2 Kelly with 100k bankroll and 1 mil nw than it is with 100k bankroll which is all the money you have. Just wondering if there is an optimum way to determine this. Maybe the fraction of Kelly doesn't matter so long as you are using Kelly.

Appreciate your posts here

I cash out to buy things and when I'm not actively using the funds. (Cashouts super cheap now.) Risk assessment site to site is more nuanced. Don't wanna be that ****tard who got got by a dude with a neck tat for 600k.

Future income streams help to offset the issue you describe in the 2nd paragraph. Betting full Kelly on 500k when you're going to be a full time neurosurgeon next year is conservative. Betting full kelly on 500k living in your parent's basement as an unskilled 30 smth with no marketable skills is very aggressive. Kinda depends since we're all just handwaving future income streams/discount rates/etc.

I mean everyone here is acting like there has never been a shady thing to happen in the world of sport...BOXING no less.