No problem Rich. I mean you be the fight like you thought the line was -600, wait till it won then pretended it was -5000 except lol boxing which is just a lack of clear thought and conviction, then you mock other people who are far closer to reality and other people who have some sort of spine to make prognostications with actual backing.

Sporting Events may be the place for this sort of post hoc analysis that doesn't actually include any wagering.

Imagine being you

compared to you guys who think the odds were correct because mayweather didn't knock him out in the first round?

lol

Are you sure that is what they mean?

I'm not sure if thats what being argued in here but Ive heard it elsewhere. That the first few rounds were a lot closer than anyone thought, therefore the odds were right. I say baloney. Does anyone really think that if it were a 3 round fight the first 3 rounds would have looked like that? FM knew exactly what he was doing. He got CM to fall right into his trap. Got in tight with him and absorbed lots of tiny little meaningless shots and let CM punch himself out. Then we all saw what happened. If that were a 3 round right then his strategy would have much different. Obviously. FM was really never ever in trouble for even a second and actually when you consider how much older and smaller Floyd is, his execution was pretty flawless. Yea, he took more punches than in any other fight, but how many of those were ****ing hammer fists?? Or worthless little jabs to the crown of the head. Doing absolutely ZERO damage. You guys who are saying -400 was right (so +325ish no vig), are you honestly trying to argue that if those two fought 7 times, CM wins TWICE?! That is completely laughable.

Why was Mayweather down to -200 after the 3rd round? And why didn't you bet half your roll on it?

I was too busy drinking and enjoying myself at a party. That's pretty shocking to me though and if I saw that I absolutely would have. I'd also love to know who the geniuses were who were hammering Conor an hour before the fight causing the pinnacle line to drop like 100 cents, cent by cent. Do you think they were making +EV bets?

I filled up my half kelly stake at their expense. Just curious cause half kelly based on some of the numbers tossed out here is well in excess of 50% of your roll.

But I guess when feel bettors talk about math they end up cucking themselves. So why discuss what fair odds are when you bet the fight like you think -600 is fair?

2 friends sharing a moment after they just pulled off the biggest bank robbery in the history of sports.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z12bjz-s7e0

Here is also the real McGregor and not the douche persona that sells fights to his idiot fan base
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8FGOrFuYpA

Without so much hostility if thats possible, what do you guys make of the late action on pinnacle leading up to the fight? I got real nervous watching that line drop one cent at a time all the way from mid fives down to I think -410? I don't think anybody saw that coming. Pretty sure you guys all said that the reason the line wasn't way higher days and weeks before the match was because sharps didn't want to tie up funds for that long, and getting a good price day of the fight wouldn't be a problem. This all insinuates that the line was going to close a lot higher than -600. I would have bet money that it was going to steam like crazy a few hours before it started and closed above -1000.

So what gives? I honestly have no idea who would be betting CM like that and why. And I mean they were obviously wrong. Unless, actually now that I think about it, they were super super sharp and knew CM would take the first few rounds and planned on buying back floyd live betting after the first couple rounds? That seems risky as hell though.

If Goldman Sachs finds an investment opportunity and they approximate their edge to be 30% do you honestly believe they're going to just put half their money on the line cause that's what Kelly staking says? There's opportunity costs, you don't live forever and Mayweather won't be fighting McGregor every day from now til the end of time.

Not to go all Socratic on you like some of our Russian forum posters, but this statement is legitamitely meaningless.


What does edge mean for an investment?

Are we talking just equity or fully capitalized "bankroll"? Bc I would point you to google long term capital management or Amaranth hedge fund then go back to the TGIFridays you manage and drink mudslides until you blackout.

If you bet [insert a fraction] Kelly then you do what it tells you. Or you have some kind of rules to modify it. But arguing that you don't follow it Bc of opportunity cost / that human lifespan is not infinite (I assume this is trying to get at something related to variance) / that all sporting events are not identical / repeated is laughable.

Laughable.

And btw my opinion on the matter is that the line was laughably wrong. It gets tricky though saying what it should have been Bc you are just arguing over how to discount the exponential nature of aging and long layoffs from competition.

lol what??

I bet 22k to win 5k 8)

might forget about this but if someone PMs me in a couple days i'll take a screenshot and post the results

https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/3RH5BZ9

did you not see the post where he said he wasn't pleased watching the fight?

what does that mean? it means he was very happy to place the bet but once he watched the fight his enthusiasm ended

what else does that mean champ?

thremp, are you predicting what the betting line would be on a rematch, or what the actual probability of floyd winning would be?

if it's the latter and you are saying -800 then i refuse to believe you aren't trolling.

are you arguing that he has less than a 90% chance to win? i hope not

ot : i did try to get 50% on but it's very hard being from Australia

Yes you should if you are confident in your calcs

this is irrelevant

There are plenty of good reasons not to go full kelly criterion on a single bet.

Beside.emotional ones?

yes

The latter obviously.

There is a reason I'm an expert and one of the only people in this thread who bet their prediction rather than another one of the randoms who shows up after the fight to preen.

If you think -800 is trolling, let me know what you had prefight (based on what you actually bet), whether you think Conor exceeded expectations, and whether you think the line will go up or down based on what occurs in the year between now and a rematch.

nah, i will just go lol at your posts with diablo instead

Lol no