How many people who think this line was FREE MONEY actually staked a third or more of their roll? (Actual bettors, not people with 2k in a book and a jerb.)


ETA: If you think the fair line is -1000 and you're a massive 1/3rd kelly nit, the stake should be 22% of your roll. lmk which of the free money folks actually dropped real coin (to them).

pinny had -1600 and -10,000 after 8th and 9th

Lols, jesus. I'm pretty sure I bet more than your yearly net worth on most of my fights mr. nl5.

So by your logic if you bet say Real Madrid at 1.3 prematch to win (or insert any sport of your choice), they score a goal within 5 minutes, and someone offers you the same 1.3 line after, you shouldn't bet more because of that verbal diarrhea you spouted above?

Yea. This. LVR is that poster who posts like he knows everything but seem comically foolish.

So overall in hindshight I'm pretty mad at myself for cucking out and not betting way way more than I did. And also for getting waaaay too cute. I let all these DQ/rematch scenarios get in my head and donked off a ton of small bets as sort of insurance, all the while knowing floyd by KO, TKO or DQ at anywhere from -125 to -200 (and honestly probably was good at like -800) was way the right side. I did ok but for a once in a lifetime sort of spot I did not make NEAR the amount that I should have.

Ill tell you what scared the **** out of me... was anyone watching pinny drop their price cent by ****ing cent leading up to the fight?? It made me so nervous and confused. I didnt and still dont know what the FUC>K that was all about. Can anyone hazard a guess? I went from like -535 to I think -409? like one cent at a time. I kept thinking they were dummy moves and someone was going to absolutely unleash on them and it would close at like -800 or something. But the buy back really never came. It went back up to -430ish I think, but wtf was that?? Then after floyd looked like ME out there in first 3 rounds I was ****ting myself. Legit, poop ran down my leg and into my socks. There was a huge open scalp between pinnacle and bookmaker for like over an hour (+450ish to -410ish). I don't think I have ever seen anything like that. Who the hell was betting on CM at pinnacle over and over at ****ty odds, enough to keep moving them down? What was pinnacle doing?? It was like they were begging for FM action. I still dont know wtf happened.

In hindisght, CM did waaaay better than anyone expected but it was still really never in doubt. I was at a party and the pinny bull**** scared me too much to live bet but godamnit I wish I had. You could see CM gassing out more and more every round. Mouth open, legs wobbly, hands further and further down. But man, FM did not look good at all for a while. Turning his back?! charging in with no real plan. I guess it all worked and CM sort of punched himself out early. But FM def did look like a 40 year old man. Oh and how about CM weighing in at 175!! He looked MASSIVE against FM.

All in all I made some money but I should be yacht shopping today. Or at least for a new mountain bike. Just knew in my gut, as did everyone else, that this was like a 99% chance type of thing.

Man I really cucked the **** out.

congratulations

No I wouldn't bet more if I already bet the required amount before the match started.

No I wouldn't lol

what math are you talking about? show me so I can learn a bit ey

Do you guys just bet w.e you want willy nilly without any thought?

Save yourself a lot of embarrassment before you ask Iowa questions like that. I think you've been around long enough to know his rep.

Your missing the point and probably running a basic guess work model.

In-play betting graph from Betfair :

http://imgur.com/gallery/AbZwE

Just noticed all the other rubbish in your post. You should be betting information. The Real Madrid example is a time to think

Thanks for making an easy bet even easier you guize. Putting in 5x for the rematch.

This. Lol. I could be way off here, but could someone tell me if this line of thought is correct?

Say that the total market for the fight is $200 million, and that 80% of the money was on Floyd. (I don't know the right #'s, feel free to correct me.) Books seemed to want more money to come in on Floyd.

Does this mean that the limit of total sharp $ is around $160-some million? (Or at least the limit they are willing to bet, even on one of the best opportunities possible?)

June 1, 2017, shortly before Game 1 of the NBA Finals

lvr: Hello, I'd like to bet $x on the Golden State Warriors moneyline at -350. That is my required amount.

Bookie: You got it.

4th quarter, 0:30 left before the game is over, Warriors lead the Cavaliers by 24 pts, 113-89

For some insane reason:

Bookie: Hey lvr, would you like to bet any more on the Warriors ML at -350?

lvr: Of course not!! I've already bet my required amount!!!

I had 20% on Floyd avg of -450 or so. It wasn't even that great of a day +5%. A loss would have been brutal though. Everyone is saying it's OBVIOUS it was a lock after the fact, but McGregor caught Floyd with his left uppercut round 1. There was potential for a McGregor KO much greater than 1/50 or 1/30 people are claiming here.

wow, it was that obv eh??? and here im trying to win a 5% clip by betting the browns not to make the playoffs FML

Holy **** and you actually made fun of me for being bad at betting. LOL

Feels like a lot of people in here could stare down at AA, know the other guy has 22 preflop, and think "dunno if all my chips can go in the middle, because he might bink a 2".

Yeah obviously he might. But if you could double his stack size preflop and double yours knowing the situation you're in, you should hopefully do it every time.

This is a horrible analogy. In poker you KNOW you are 82% or whatever. Look at Pinnacles's tweet about this circus of an event.

https://twitter.com/PinnacleSports/s...95136555188225

I think most of us can agree the correct line was higher than -400... no one knows how high it SHOULD have been though because its a one off match.

now, I'm not sure what point or points you are arguing or who you are referring to, but, in short, it feels like you are comparing a presumed outcome of a fight vs that of AA vs 22 pre-flop.

We have calculators to tell us exactly our chances with AA. As far as I know, such a calculator does not exist when inputting two fighters

Ha^

Conner himself got that line down to -400 with his yapper

Not sure about you guys, but I knew that if you ran Floyd vs Connor 100 times, the 2 binks more often.

I would much rather my money on Floyd than the aces. Many felt the same.

By this logic you should be betting every # on a roulette spin except the 00 to grow your bankroll.

I cbfd replying to all of you but you guys are wrong and are thinking in absolutes for some reason lol

It's not the same at all lol

A more comparable example would be if you had 50% of your bankroll on the table and get AA

You then proceed to go all in and the dealer asks if you want to add more money to the table

Do you add the other 50% of your bankroll or let it slide?

Do you go all in because the 2 is never going to come? or are you going to just ride it out lol

Coming soon to a poker table near you...

lvr gets dealt red AA
Local donkey gets dealt black 22
lvr goes all-in for 50% of his bankroll
Donkey calls
Flop comes AA3, 2 clubs
Dealer asks lvr: "Would you like to add more money to the table?"
lvr: "Of course not!! I've already bet my required amount!!!"

You are comparing a scenario where you can't lose to one where you can lose 10% of the time

You have no ****ing idea what you are talking about

risking all of your bankroll on anything is ****ing ******ed

LOL dude, isn't your required bet related to your perceived edge? So your edge just got way way bigger, and you don't increase the required amount?