i have over 10k on this fight and i'm not even going to watch it. All because i have a prop bet that the fight does under 5 million buys. plus these 2 guys are pretty unlikable.

I've already bet on Floyd for my fill, but I had a friend ask me for suggestions on the best bet he can make for a decent payout. He believes Floyd will win easily as well, and I said that just straight betting Floyd, or Floyd inside distance, or parlaying Floyd + Under are the best options, but he wants a better payout than even money, since he's just a $50 Bovada punter.

What are the best bets he can make to get a good +$ payout?

On Bovada, I'm seeing:

Floyd in rounds 1-2 +1000
Floyd in rounds 3-4 +1000
Floyd in rounds 5-6 +900
Floyd in rounds 1-3 +700
Floyd in rounds 1-4 +400
Floyd in rounds 1-6 +190
Floyd by KO +450
Floyd by TKO +230
Floyd by DQ +800
Floyd by Decision +250
Floyd by UD +325
Floyd by MD +1600
Floyd by SD +1600
Floyd by TD +3300

Should I advise one or more of these? Any other ideas?

(I think that if I combine the rounds 1/2+3/4 bets it yields +450, and if I combine the rounds 1/2+3/4+5/6 bets it yields +255, so those would be better than just betting 1-4 or 1-6.)

You'd think that, but I dunno if anyone is hitting him for 10-12 rounds the way Floyd will, don't know if he's facing anyone that's gonna make him move the way Floyd does. The guy who is gonna feel right at home in that ring and those rules has an edge. That's all I'm saying. The other guy is gonna feel like an alien on earth.

lol yeah everyone is thinking that.

two fighters saying this won't go past 4. under being pounded at pinnacle. Over is a lock.

Mayweather "This fight won't go the distance, mark my words."

Here is my prefight analysis and betting prediction for tomorrow’s Mayweather vs. McGregor fight: http://masterclassboxing.blogspot.co...-prefight.html

People have so many opinions and predictions. My friend who is a pretty good amateur boxer said he thinks Floyd will win by the 6th. Take that as you will.

I think Floyd's weight gives away a little tactical information that they are going to try to drown McGregor past 6 rounds because of the cardio advantage he will have weighing less.
I think McGregor winning 1 or 2 rounds with effective aggression is a decent bet because with Mayweather's weight he is incentivized to just play defense early, let McGregor punch himself out some then by round 4 have McGregor completely figured out with a full tank of gas.
After that it will be all down hill for McGregor.

I do think the McGregor fan boys will get some excitement early on and a little sweat for the Mayweather bets but the reason McGregor has no chance is that it is a 12 round fight.

I would also love to bet that McGregor never fights in MMA again and McGregor Promotions first big fight as the main promoter is against Paulie Malignaggi. All McGregor needs to do is win a round and that fight is a lock for 50-100 million dollars in McGregor's pocket. Maybe he does one or two more MMA fights to get a piece of UFC equity but I do think this is the start to McGregor's boxing career and McGregor Promotions as a boxing promotion. As a boxing fan that is really exciting.

Interesting bet my book offers, would like to hear some opinions on it:

CM to win at least one round, odds are 2.62. What ya'll think?

Sylvia vs Pudzianowski comes to mind. Also Overeem vs Brett Rogers. Both were like -200.

Couture via sub against Toney at ~-140 is the best prop similar. I maxed that a few times @ 5D.

id take that bet, CM should be the attacked at least for the first 2 rounds, and overall he should land a few decent punches through the first half of the fight

nice writeup man

Come on, lets go.
We can get his line to -400 at least. I am splitting my bets into 3 because I think the tourist money is going to come in on McGregor today.

As far as winning a round IMO you have to know the judging criteria is on clean punching, defense, ring generalship and effective aggression.
McGregor is not going to win a round on clean punching or defense but IMO he could have a 50/50 chance to win one of the first 4 based on effective aggression. You kind of get ring generalship for free when you fight really aggressive. That will be especially true when trying to turn this into a 4 round sprint because you know you aren't winning a 12 round fight. He also could have no clue though when he actually gets in there and immediately is getting countered to the body with every single thing he tries.

Still though I think Floyd to win at anything less than -700 strictly dominates all other bets.

Mayweather is -400 on b365 atm

I'm not a boxing or betting expert but i wouldn't bet on mcgregor winning a round ( at those odds).

I don't think mcgregor will win a round by "effective aggression". You can't just throw punches cluelessly and hope to win the round. He might try a few times, get countered then stop throwing punches and mayweather will walk him down. From the few clips i've seen from him he doesn't even throw punches correctly and it will be hard for him to land something on mayweather if his punches are telegraphed or too wide.

Pacquiao is a lot better than conor and won like 3 rounds. And he won those rounds by countering mayweather's jab when he didnt expected to (and following with punches), not by attacking first.

Canelo was supposed to be aggressive, he didnt throw many punches and didnt won a single round if i remember well.

The only one that did well being the agressor vs floyd was maidana in the first fight but it was probably a choice by mayweather cause he said before the fight he will fight differently and 2nd fight maidana threw a lot less punches if i remember well.

Very good writing sir

i have 4 units already but after reading that i am down for another unit

glgl

Any of you know ballpark what sort of punches landed per round we could expect from Floyd?

I have 8k on floyd to win.... -375 now on bodog might add more.... gl all

Mayweather rounds 4-6 is +475 on bovada.

Each individual round of 4-6 is +1600. Am I missing something here or should I just bet each of the individual rounds and not the 3 round set?

120 to win 570
40/40/40 to win 640

Am I understanding this correctly?

$640 - $80 = $560
$560 < $570

$120 to win $570 is better

I like under 5 1/2 rounds but i am not touching that

STRAIGHT BET
[24996] FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR -590
(CONOR MCGREGOR vrs FLOYD MAYWEATHER JR)

glgl

Well you obviously are not an expert because you are just straight wrong. That is basically how Jeff Horn just beat Pacquiao. He won the fight because of his ring generalship and effective aggression while landing less punches.
It is the exact type of fight that because most people don't understand the judging criteria call the decision a robbery and cry about how corrupt boxing is. Boxing is not a sport of just landing punches. McGregor is totally going to be trying this dirty in fighting style with a ton of arm punches and elbows.

Either way it doesn't matter because it is utterly stupid to bet anything other than Floyd to win straight up.

-375 that is so sick.
Don't get cute and outsmart yourself boys.

Yep, forgot to subtract the 80, don't usually bet fights. Thanks.

Great write up

Agree that it's not just about landing punches. If conor can manage to throw a lot of punches then yeah he might win a round. Horn was the agressor cause he threw more puches than pacquiao so you could give him some rounds even tough pacquiao connected more. But my point was he probably wont be able to throw a lot of punches, and you can't win for effective agression if you dont throw punches.
I'm not saying that mcgregor has 0% chance of winning a round but it's not likely enough to bet it at 2.62.
I can't recall 1 time when someone won a round doing that vs mayweather, he instantly grabbed pacquiao and guerrero everytime they were inside. So why would mcgregor would be succesful doing that?

Amen! Maybe win by ko/tko/dq is good bet too, but win straight up at those odds seem so sick.