I follow boxing quite a bit (usually watch 4-6 fights per weekend) and gamble on it decently, otherwise I follow a buddy who does very well.

I put Mayweather's chances at 98%. That 2% chance is a combination of a Mayweather injury, some sort of chicanery happening, or McGregor getting very, very lucky. I think Mayweather ko vs. decision's an interesting argument.

And yes, I have subsequently bet on Mayweather.

I guess, sure. But not much would happen other than Mayweather popping McGregor and moving away, or just clinching.

I don't think it's really possible to throw something at Mayweather that he's not going to be ready for, or that McGregor's going to develop some new unique style that's going to flummox Mayweather.

I just read the ESPN article and posted in SE, but had a few questions that I thought would be better answered here.


(1)A month before the fight, 85 percent of the money that had been bet on the winner at William Hill's sportsbooks was on McGregor, including a trio of $50,000 bets on the underdog placed by the same customer on July 24 that could result in a $662,500 profit. The early lopsided action had William Hill facing potentially its biggest decision in the company's five-year history in Nevada.

Less than $1 mil is the biggest decision ever for William Hill in Vegas?


(2)Several shops said the true odds of Mayweather winning are closer to -5,000 (1-50), but they're able to book the fight at a much lower price.
"I've said [McGregor] realistically could be 50-1," Westgate SuperBook assistant manager Jeff Sherman said, "and people have asked, 'Why don't you give me 50-1, then?' I tell them I don't need to, because you're already betting him at 5-1."

Could this be the biggest disparity ever, between true odds and betting odds?


(3) At -500 to -600, and true odds of 98-99%, Kelly is 86-94%. Even at quarter to half-Kelly, is it really advisable to bet a quarter to half your entire roll on one fight?

I think it's a legit time where you could safely bet a large portion of your roll. It's very rare for an amateur to be elevated into a match with a GOAT. We don't usually see this type of edge for one fighter I don't think. Maybe CM punk vs Mickey Gall was the last time?

No, obviously

vegas bookmakers speaking to the media have as much credibility as hbob posturing on a sports betting board.

karsten braasch and donnie j turmp come to mind personally.

People overrate the impact of technique too much in fighting

Combat sports probably have the least technical requirement out of all main stream sports

Athletic ability is probably the number 1 reason someone wins a fight

i'm not so sure of this. Combat sports (i assume you're including mma, boxing, kickboxing, bjj) doe rely heavily on technique. many of the best practitioners/champions are well into their 30's (Mayweather, Golovkin, Ward, Stipe, Bisping, Saenchai, Galvao, and on and on and on). I don't have any stats but i'm assuming that age (hence pure athletic ability) plays a much larger factor in football, basketball, baseball, track and field, etc.

You need to re-read that a couple of times. Your question here makes no sense. No where does it say that it's about less than $1mil for William Hill. It mentions that 85% of money is on McGregor. There also happens to be a trio of $50k bets. There could be 100MM on McGregor total for all we know from the information provided.

You're right, it doesn't say precisely that in just those sentences, but it seemed to imply that from the context of the entire article. For example:

"The liability is quickly approaching seven figures," Rood told ESPN.
So the liability is less than $1 mil for MGM, as of the article.

There are some other quotes too, but I figured around a million, probably a little less for Will Hill, and was surprised by that. Which is why I came to ask the Q here, as I said.

I've now looked around a little more, not a ton, and it seems that the # is more likely in the $1-2 mil range, because on the Clemson-Alabama game, "It cost William Hill a seven-figure loss and was the "single worst loss on any game ever" for the company." And looks like the SuperBowl was around that # as well.

The only reason age doesn't seem like a factor in fighting is because there isn't a huge amount of fighters

It's not like other sports where there are literally millions and millions of people trying to make the league..

The sad fact is that not many people want to become professional fighters since the payout isn't that great

There are literally BJJ pros who rather open up schools because it nets them more money

as someone who was an amateur boxer and practiced muay thai for 10 years i gotta disagree. i definitely would beat my 25 year old ass up now as a 36 year old assuming i trained and got my gas tank up to par. obviously athletic ability matters but technique is hugely important...it's what enabled a young murderer like BHop transition to the wily technician he became known for in his 40's.

Well that settles that then.

ha, i expected that. anyway, if anyone really cares about the levels of technique and ring craft i would highly recommend these 2 video channels. it's called the sweet science for a reason.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2i...pQLeaj3Qplatjw

https://www.youtube.com/user/LawrenceKenshin

This is way off AINEC

Mayweather looking to embarrass McGregor http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=20289825

Found this clip interesting. Claiming it's not going to be a defensive fight and he (Floyd) will be the aggressor to make a point. I would expect this gives hope and favors Conor or at the very least the U 9.5 that has been mentioned seems like the best bet available. Wouldn't surprise many i don't think after all the talk, Floyd does what he does and fights his style (defensive) and it goes 12.

Dont understand how anyone could bet for anything other than Floyd victory, this is the most bizarre sporting fixture ive ever come across.

But Conor knows the angles, bra!

A+ gif usage

Here come the big boys....

Yeah the big boys are really pounding the line into shape. They moved from -550 to -575 after that one.

Line is moving the opposite way online

You obviously don't understand that people have been fighting for a ton of money under the Queensbury rules for over a 100 years.
The rules themselves have been the same since 1867. James J. Jeffries got paid $120,000 in 1910 to fight Jack Johnson(more than most UFC fighters today).

There is no tactic that has not been seen before, it is an absurd idea.
Mayweather is the best that has ever lived in a sport that has been around at a high level for a 100+ years. The combined experience of the Mayweathers is higher than anyone.

The reason the line is so off as a prediction market is because you almost never have a guy at a Michael Jordan or Wayne Gretzky level that has almost no fans and is hated. The Pacquiao line was just as equally ridiculous for exactly the same reasons.

The only echo chamber is that McGregor has any chance in this fight. By the end of round 1 Floyd will have figured out what McGregor is going to do before McGregor even does it.

The only real variable on this fight is the chance Mayweather takes a dive to set-up another 100 million dollar pay day. I don't think that is reasonable because he has so much future cash flows as a promoter with TMT and his entire identity is that he is unbeatable.

McGregor can knock Floyd down 3 times and still not win. He has to put a guy literally to sleep and that just doesn't happen to guys with good defense in boxing. Floyd's chin is not available for that. He has never put a guy to sleep with one punch in MMA and Floyd has never been knocked down either. Aldo would have got up with a 10 count.

Floyd looks AMAZING. The guy is clearly on a testosterone replacement so the age thing won't matter. He looks huge
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbFjm0HVeSc

There is no reason to promote that Mayweather looks as good as he has ever looked. There is only reason to release the goofy sparring videos of Conor pretending to have done something to sell the fight.

I think Floyd by stoppage is a good a bet but there is just no reason to get fancy when Floyd winning is the best sports bet ever.

For a prop bet I would take that McGregor's corner throws in the towel at some point between rounds. Once he is beyond the 5th or 6th round he isn't going to have enough power left to do anything and then he is basically a punching bag and in a really dangerous situation brain injury wise. McGregor can save face with the corner ending it for him.

Mayweather has made 500+ million dollars by the same trick over and over and over that the other guy has some chance when they don't. You can tell how many people talking **** have never seen a Mayweather fight because it is always this exact narrative. This is Floyd's ultimate trick though because the other guy has NO FIGHTS!! lol.

I am trying to figure out how much I will ever bet on sports in the future and I will bet it all on this fight. If I lose then for sure I have no business betting on anything sports related.

Dude It's not about the rules, that has nothing to do with it, it's about a new tactic, strategy, a different style of boxing WITHIN the rules that somehow turns out the be effective.

Sure If you say so.. but boxing HAS changed over the years, you got guys with totally different styles and tactics that make it work, boxing evolves that way like any other sport. you thinking people will never come up with new strategies or tactics in boxing is just ignorant. Also read my post again, I'm not saying he will shock the world with some weird stance or tactic, I just think that is what it takes, with conventional boxing he has no shot, people already expect him to go in with a wider stance, and switch stances often, he might do a bunch more unconventional things.


He has put guys to sleep, you saying they would get up is your opinion and is not been tested. Go check his fight against Ivan Buchiner, that is a brutal KO, now way he would recover from that.

LOL, clearly NOT true, he is still fairly small, he is not huge and never has been, just ripped, and YES for his age he looks great. BTW He entered the USADA drug testing pool and has been tested a LOT, TRT is not allowed.

You'r not just making things up but you state your opinions like it's written in the bible and is absolute truth. Although I agree with the general direction of you post, that Floyd is the absolute favorite, but you don't get credit for stating the obvious.

Anyone have any opnions on the video coming out of connor training? The two or three I saw were like seriously some of the worst training vidoes ever. It seems obvious he's doing it on purpose but why?