I agree fwiw. I feel like I kinda had the real soft props market almost to myself for a little while a few years ago but it seems like people caught on. Prop lines in general seem a lot sharper than the field day they were a few years ago. It wouldnt be uncommon for me to find stuff like -150 +200 scalps on props I could get 500-1000 on. Never see that anymore.

I think part of what happened to K's is BM upping the limit to a reasonable amount. I used to check in the past and they only had $50-100 limits and even in Vegas $100 limits.

Them putting it at $500 this year made it more competitive. ~10% ROI on $500 bets is more appealing especially when you can re-bet and there's ~30 pitchers/day. That's the only reason I got interested.

If it gets too hard then probably won't bother anymore. It's already a pain now with how much the market moves and how random the time it opens is. I'll probably ditch it in July when the big race tracks open up.

Might be good only in April/May. Projecting K's after May with tons of in-season data is much easier.

With NBA/NHL props I noticed more books posting props on games w/decent limits so I got interested too. Need to predict rebounds/assists/etc. for spreads and totals, not that hard to just calculate props then and if limits are $250 or more seems worth it. I think DFS killing itself with high rake and more sportsbooks opening up due to legislation in states and them catering to DFS players really helped the market grow

Pro: higher limits
Con: lines will get worse over time

Yup, for sure. The limits never bothered me because I would have 10 plus accounts at once and could get down at least 100 at each one. Some books I had just had flat max bets for everything. I used to be able to bet up to 2k on some really obscure props and buy back half of it at like 50c scalps. I rarely would want to be naked on any single bet for more than 2k anyway. So it was really perfect for me for a while.

If im being honest with myself though I dont think I really have the technical skills to kill it anymore. But then again I used to think this all the time and have always done at least ok so we'll see. Pitcher K thus far has kinda sucked though. Ive been tinkering with catcher framing but its hard to quantify.

Sir, I apologize for injecting some reason into this discussion. I realize that the material is not for beginners and hard to follow for most. I will try and slow it down a little, keep up if you can.

Ah yes the great Ivr, vaunted member of the chatroom breakevenairs. I am honored that you would take the time to "lol" at my post. I realize that the mental strain of breaking even for months on end can get to people, so I forgive the slight. I have linked a resource below for you to spend the downtime.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/12...HBCV8KB40DDWPR

Order it tonight. I expect a minimum 10 page paper, doubled spaced and Times New Roman font. I want the paper to include a summary of the chapters and their possible relevant application to sports betting. Try to get it to me by July 15th, 2019.


Mr. Rodriguez, it is an honor that you would reply to my post. I have an established track record of closing decent edges on NBA games over a big sample. I do not understand why this is a big deal. I did not say that I was able to beat NBA for 3% but it is certainly in the range of games that I do find fairly frequently. Several members of this forum have already demonstrated that they don’t realize that a 3% edge on a single game is different from 3% in all games. Perhaps a basic Khan Academy course in statistics would be able to assist them with this basic misconception.

Sir, I realize that reading comprehension may not be your strong suit, but I will try to simplify this for you. I never claimed to beat the NBA for 3%. I said I found a 3% edge. Finding edges like this is very common when you are a winning sports bettor. In a standard statistical distribution you will find plenty of games both above and below the mean. I realize that basic statistics can be challenging, but I believe that you can persevere with enough diligent practice.


Sir I do not mean to be rude, but the fact that you think a half point is enough for a successful scalp speaks volumes about your knowledge. I am sorry to say that it doesn't shine it in the best light. Secondly, many of the “real sharp bettors” here have publicly admitted to less than stellar results over the long run. It’s clear from their posts, and the logic derived from them. Instead people are apt to send this poster on an unfruitful duck hunt down an endless rabbit hole. You want to learn sports betting? Yes, just slave away at Python for 6-8 months. The only problem is that doesn’t make you a winner. Price is the most relevant thing to your win rate at the end of the day, that doesn’t change if you model or not. Again, I know this is very complicated, but I am simply trying to save the lad a little time. The risk of getting banned is omnipresent whether you chase steam or not. I have been banned plenty, but I have a motto to get me through when it happens. Perhaps you should incorporate it as well, “Don’t cry…adapt”. There are also plenty of precautions to take. Don’t cash out, bet odd amounts, don’t max bet, this isn’t rocket science and catching a sharp bettor is a difficult task. You risk getting banned no matter how you win.

I am glad that you loved my line. Vigorous debate was exactly what I was looking for. Though I have been disappointed with the level of intellect, I am happy to help steer people in the right direction.

Another thorough and complete my rebuttal of my hypothesis. I should have come more prepared; I wasn’t prepared for scrutiny of this depth.


I like this guy.

All please take note: Every criticism of me has been ad hominem. It’s time to shake this forum up a little bit. You all can do better. Daddy is home.

you seem like a real even keel kind of person

Thanks

lol

Get to work compadre!

Just so you know, you're flexing a textbook that his own students found so absurd they organized a walkout on his class and got him removed from his position... fyi

LOL

guy please dont leave or change

I realize that modeling is the hardest path to profit, but for me it will be the most fun and potentially satisfying. Anyone can have 20 tabs open and mindlessly wait for a line to move like monkey trained to mooch. Maybe some people can even tell when a line is likely to move again after it has already moved. That's all well and good, but I think it would be a bigger blast to painstakingly create/refine a model and then watch its predictions come true.

Nice bait, sir.


I don't totally understand the interest in slaving away for hours building a model to grind out a 5% edge on a market where you can get down $10k a week. If you're rsigley and all you have to do is click a button and just like that a model appears out of thin air, fine. But for most of you who are not pros, and just doing this for fun, I'd imagine it would be more pleasant to use those hours going for a walk, doing something creative, or just watching the actual sports event if you happen to actually enjoy this stuff.

One of the best pieces of advice I ever got was from b00t, when he suggested I forget about trying to originate. For a guy who indulged in my suffering, he spared me a lot of it. Thanks, old friend.

I disagree. It depends on your end goal. If your end goal is to make a MLB Model for ML's and totals, then why not start with K's (or any prop)?

They are parts of your final model already.

The only reason it was easy for me to bet that prop is because I already predict K's for part of model, it's integral for baseball.

Then since I already did it all I needed is 12 lines of code to calculate o/u for a variety of totals and pay someone $50 to create a pretty view of the data.

If I was starting today, what I would do is start to build a database or excel spreadsheet of lines and some prop you are interested in. They don't have to be perfect but just copy the BM lines once a day. Not going for super accuracy but whats important is the # they are at and the +/-

Build a database of all the data from day 1 to today and study it and try to predict whatever prop you're interested in. There's enough data in the season now that you don't have to do your own pre-season projections.

By the time you do this it should be like july-ish and then use the data pre today to try and predict june 20th

then pre june 21st to predict june 21st

etc.

see how close you can get. try to figure out why you're so off if you are, etc.

try it with your projected lineups vs. actual, etc.

Insanely easier to start now than 15 years ago. So much data and resources at your disposal. The hard part is just start.

Don't sit there reading all day and planning

Just start doing it

Pretty good example of the smug superiority that is 2+2 at it's worst. Far too common.




The one thing I really don't like about 2+2 is the smugness/overestimation of personal ability that goes on here. Everyone thinks that beating small stakes poker gives you insights to basically everything. So I have noticed that people here believe themselves to be much much smarter than they really are.


In short, [T]he entire thread would appreciate it if you toned it down a bit. Every one of your posts reeks of unrelenting anger at your own conscious existence. Perhaps it would be more tolerable if you weren't so grossly incompetent.

Sir, I truly hope that your so-called "stupid ass questions competition" is fruitful. Unfortunately, we have a term for the supposed facts outlined in your post.



The only corroborating evidence I could find was this,

"Harvard students are planning to walk out of economist Gregory Mankiw's Econ 10 class on Wednesday to show solidarity with the Occupy Movement."

Finding the facts and adhering to their consequences might not come naturally to you, but I implore you to explore it further. You may be surprised by what you find.

DaddysHome, Thank you for your input and your astute attention to detail. I will take note and continue to conduct myself with the utmost respect and deference to the sports betting community. I hope that we can all continue to grow and learn together.

An admitted low stakes poker player trying to tell regular posters on this sub, nearly all of whom have won seven figures betting sports, what's what? Amazing.

In fact, a mere 17 months ago you were asking for strategy help on a poker tournament that costs less than $8.

Big Daddy indeed.

DaddysHome, I have been playing poker for a long time. I am proud of my career and I have left it all on the felt. The $8 ticket was a freeroll, of course, but that seems to miss the point. I am not above learning at any stake. And my definition of "small stakes" includes the majority of $1/2 online that I have played in the last year. Those aren't easy games, though I am not sure you how up-to-date you are on the state of the games.

There are two options you can take from here, debate my points on their merits or try and shame me for a freeroll I played a year and a half ago. I will never be buffaloed by a forum bully.

Subscribed, thanks Cod!

Good stuff. Anybody you know provide archives of prop odds?

yeah but why have models for anything if you don't enjoy coding and statistical analysis?

Not a problem.

Maybe we should take these skills and work penny stocks instead.

Since you like me, maybe you’ll listen to me. There are some very knowledgeable people in this thread worth listening to. As someone who seemingly employs a market-based strategy, these people are key to your existence and you should respect them. Disregard if this is some Poogs-style attempt to extract info.