Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny_B
Boy, what a shame.
Sir, I apologize for injecting some reason into this discussion. I realize that the material is not for beginners and hard to follow for most. I will try and slow it down a little, keep up if you can.
Ah yes the great Ivr, vaunted member of the chatroom breakevenairs. I am honored that you would take the time to "lol" at my post. I realize that the mental strain of breaking even for months on end can get to people, so I forgive the slight. I have linked a resource below for you to spend the downtime.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/12...HBCV8KB40DDWPR
Order it tonight. I expect a minimum 10 page paper, doubled spaced and Times New Roman font. I want the paper to include a summary of the chapters and their possible relevant application to sports betting. Try to get it to me by July 15th, 2019.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterRodriguez
Good post and nice show off levels ,but this is No
Mr. Rodriguez, it is an honor that you would reply to my post. I have an established track record of closing decent edges on NBA games over a big sample. I do not understand why this is a big deal. I did not say that I was able to beat NBA for 3% but it is certainly in the range of games that I do find fairly frequently. Several members of this forum have already demonstrated that they don’t realize that a 3% edge on a single game is different from 3% in all games. Perhaps a basic Khan Academy course in statistics would be able to assist them with this basic misconception.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
Please. You dont know wtf youre talking about. If youre really handicapping then youre originating which means youre using a model. Anyone who claims to be beating NBA at 3% margins without using a model is lying, plain and simple.
Sir, I realize that reading comprehension may not be your strong suit, but I will try to simplify this for you. I never claimed to beat the NBA for 3%. I said I found a 3% edge. Finding edges like this is very common when you are a winning sports bettor. In a standard statistical distribution you will find plenty of games both above and below the mean. I realize that basic statistics can be challenging, but I believe that you can persevere with enough diligent practice.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
What you pretty obviously seem to be doing is just picking off rogue numbers at slow "eastern european" books. Im the last person here to tell you that thats a "lesser" way to make money, but for you to be a scalper and come sauntering into a thread where real sharp bettors are discussing actual concepts that go into predictive modeling and say "umm actually u dont even need a model lol" is absurd. I get that chasing steam works and feels like printing money but it doesnt work for very long, trust me. Check back in in 3 years after youve been banned from all the places that put up a 3.5 when they should put up a 3 and lets see where youre at.
Sir I do not mean to be rude, but the fact that you think a half point is enough for a successful scalp speaks volumes about your knowledge. I am sorry to say that it doesn't shine it in the best light. Secondly, many of the “real sharp bettors” here have publicly admitted to less than stellar results over the long run. It’s clear from their posts, and the logic derived from them. Instead people are apt to send this poster on an unfruitful duck hunt down an endless rabbit hole. You want to learn sports betting? Yes, just slave away at Python for 6-8 months. The only problem is that doesn’t make you a winner. Price is the most relevant thing to your win rate at the end of the day, that doesn’t change if you model or not. Again, I know this is very complicated, but I am simply trying to save the lad a little time. The risk of getting banned is omnipresent whether you chase steam or not. I have been banned plenty, but I have a motto to get me through when it happens. Perhaps you should incorporate it as well, “Don’t cry…adapt”. There are also plenty of precautions to take. Don’t cash out, bet odd amounts, don’t max bet, this isn’t rocket science and catching a sharp bettor is a difficult task. You risk getting banned no matter how you win.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Like
And I love the "Ill keep posting here if this is well-received" lol.
I am glad that you loved my line. Vigorous debate was exactly what I was looking for. Though I have been disappointed with the level of intellect, I am happy to help steer people in the right direction.
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Originally Posted by Fubster
da math patriot has logged on and is read y to explain sprots betting to us all
Another thorough and complete my rebuttal of my hypothesis. I should have come more prepared; I wasn’t prepared for scrutiny of this depth.
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Originally Posted by hedgie43
There is some middle ground between simple steam chaser (board cleaner) and originator. I'd call this middle ground a market-based player. This includes teasers, pleasers, parlays, props, derivatives and even futures. For example, after game 5 of the GSW-HOU series, and Durant's injury, the opening series line I could find (SB/BOL) was HOU +235 and a game 6 line of Rockets -7.5. You don't need to be able to model game 7 to identify that +235 series line is +EV, but in this case you are originating the series line. Maybe I'm just making this distinction between board cleaner and market-based player to make myself feel better as I fall in this category, but there is a difference IMO.
I like this guy.