Math/tech knowledge necessary to build a worthwhile predictive model - Page 7 - Sports Betting

or the great Kansas lyric...

'Masquerading as a man with a reason. My charade is the event of the season. And if I claim to be a wise man, brah, it surely means that I don't know.'

I enjoyed the back n forth lol

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07-06-2019 , 05:25 AM

#152

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

only on the internet is calling someone stupid considered a "beating"

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07-07-2019 , 01:18 PM

#153

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

lol you are the best dude

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07-07-2019 , 04:12 PM

#154

lvr

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 2,743

at one point in my life I would feel real emotions reading posts like yours

I would sit on forums and argue with randoms for hours on end about nothing

researching what ever the topic was and try my hardest to sound like an expert

I visited a forum I frequented 4 years ago and was amazed to find the same people posting about the same **** till this day

even after 4 years they are still arguing about politics/sports

the same ****ing topics too

crazy stuff mane

dear diary ~~~~~~~

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07-08-2019 , 10:10 AM

#155

banned

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307

LOL and now here you are, all this time later, fully evolved! The metamorphosis is breath taking!

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07-17-2019 , 02:45 PM

#156

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,294

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

so much great info in this thread. if you aren't motivated to go build a winning sports model after reading this thread well that's on you. or perhaps you are waiting for the release of Statistical Sports Models in Excel Kindle Edition? in any event, it really shows the way we limit ourselves. do you think james holzhauer said i can't go on jeopardy watson already solved the game? no. he built a better jeopardy model, got on the show, and crushed it. let's do it guys

As I spend my days listening to podcasts I have to say I was pleasantly impressed with Andrew Mack talking about his new book Statistical Sports Models in Excel Kindle Edition. This book might be worth adding to our sports betting course syllabus. Give his podcast appearance a listen as well.

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01-07-2022 , 09:27 PM

#157

rivercitybirdie

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 4,707

Ed Miller is good writer... That's about all I've got from

And what I remember from his book:

1) figure out dejuiced winning percentages from 2 and 3-way line. to anyone reasonably good at basic math/logic, this is trivial... To squares, this Nobel Prize level on insight

2) theory as to market efficiency re: very small markets, most markets and huge markets...smaller = less efficient except for huge events like superbowl where public money may swamp sharp money. I had not thought of that. Thot it was interesting

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01-21-2022 , 05:38 PM

#158

CallMeIshmael

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 9,330

From my POV, if I were offering younger me advice Id say #1 priority is to learn SQL and python, and really learn the following python packages:

sklearn for models
numpy quick math stuff but maybe less focus than sklearn
pandas for data work
some matplotlib for plotting but that thing is massive so only the tip
selenium and beautifulsoup for web scraping

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