Math) Finding fair price for asian quarter bets
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 614
Assuming a soccer match where the probabilities are:
exactly 0 goals: 10%
exactly 1 goal: 20%
2 or more goals: 70%
Fair decimal odds for:
Under 0.5: 10
Under 1.5: 3.33
Decimal Odds for Asian "Under 1" where exactly one goal is a wash/push: 1/(win_probability / loose_probability) = 1/(0.1/0.7) = 7
I am trying to figure out the fair odds for Asian quarter bets.
Payout for Under 0.75:
0 goals: win
1 goal: lost half, other half returned
2+ goals: lost
Payout for Under 1.25:
0 goals: win
1 goals: win half at odds we are looking for, other half returned
2+ goals: lost
What is the formula for "Under 0.75" and "Under 1.25"?