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Old 04-02-2019, 02:47 PM   #1
lehman18
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March Madness Promotion Game Theory - Live Instance

I need help figuring out the correct play in this contest.

This NJ site (Pointsbet) has been running a promo in which I have a one point lead over two opponents going into the last 3 games. Everyone else is mathematically eliminated.

These are the rules:
  • Must place a minimum $10 MoneyLine Bet on game to count towards your point total.
  • Each favored team win will get you 1 point. Each Underdog Win Gets you 2 points. Favourites/Underdogs decided by PointsBet MoneyLine at tip-off.
  • Most total points (on games with Min $10 Bet) wins $5000 Bonus Bet!




I have a fundamental understanding of why I would make each bet, but I'm not sure which one is right or if there's an obvious strategy I should be implementing.

FYI: VA is going off as a -250 favorite and Mich St is going off as a -160 favorite. Also, unsure of what a tie means. I'd say it's 50/50 whether they split the prize or give all winners $5K.
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Old 04-02-2019, 03:27 PM   #2
TomG
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Re: March Madness Promotion Game Theory - Live Instance

great question buddy and nice work getting this far. any idea what your opponents are going to do?

michigan state is around 60% to win their game. virginia around 70%. from a pure ev perspective

texas tech = 2 * 40% = 0.8
michigan state = 1 * 60% = 0.6
auburn = 2* 0.3 = 0.6
virginia = 1* 0.7 = 0.7

you're in the lead so you mostly want to maximize your ev here. you'll definitely be taking the favorite virginia. in the other game i'd take the underdog texas tech mainly because they offer the higher ev but also because your opponents will likely do the same to try to catch up so you can block them
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Old 04-03-2019, 12:26 AM   #3
lehman18
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Re: March Madness Promotion Game Theory - Live Instance

Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG View Post
great question buddy and nice work getting this far. any idea what your opponents are going to do?

michigan state is around 60% to win their game. virginia around 70%. from a pure ev perspective

texas tech = 2 * 40% = 0.8
michigan state = 1 * 60% = 0.6
auburn = 2* 0.3 = 0.6
virginia = 1* 0.7 = 0.7

you're in the lead so you mostly want to maximize your ev here. you'll definitely be taking the favorite virginia. in the other game i'd take the underdog texas tech mainly because they offer the higher ev but also because your opponents will likely do the same to try to catch up so you can block them
That’s my ititial inclination. The math backs it up. But the one theory I’m struggling with is taking both favorites. Presumably both contestants are likely to take at least one underdog.

Now if we accept that theory is there a case for taking both favorites and just winning the contest now since a 2 point lead = victory?

I actually think this is a very close call. Possibly favoring taking the favorites considering game theory versus mathematical modeing.

If I take the mathematically correct picks in the semis. Just like my opponents do. It will likely lead to a conundrum in the finals

Last edited by lehman18; 04-03-2019 at 12:48 AM.
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:21 AM   #4
TomG
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Re: March Madness Promotion Game Theory - Live Instance

you make a great point. you aren't giving up that much ev and if you can wrap it up right now that is worth a lot. what do you think you're going to do?
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Old 04-05-2019, 01:20 AM   #5
xnbomb
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Re: March Madness Promotion Game Theory - Live Instance

can you bet both sides?
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Old 04-05-2019, 01:22 AM   #6
xnbomb
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Re: March Madness Promotion Game Theory - Live Instance

you can also hedge a bit and place $10 bets on the ML for both favorites and 1K bets on the spread on the dogs.
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Old 04-06-2019, 11:32 PM   #7
TomG
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Re: March Madness Promotion Game Theory - Live Instance

how did this end up? hopefully we got this thing locked up! if not we got a great sweat to look forward to so either way we win.
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