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Old 04-21-2021, 06:35 PM   #2401
nebraska123
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

My bet on ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (vs CINCINNATI REDS) from last night was graded a loss.

The game was 5-4 ARIZONA in the top of the 8th when it was suspended due to rain.

Anyone else with this issue? Their rules simply state that games are official after 5 innings.

Thanks
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Old 04-22-2021, 05:09 AM   #2402
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Should have been graded a winner. Make sure you didn’t accidentally bet the wrong team. Happens sometimes. They make mistakes sometimes also and almost always fix them when made aware of the error.
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Old 04-22-2021, 06:14 AM   #2403
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by EYESCREW View Post
Should have been graded a winner. Make sure you didnít accidentally bet the wrong team. Happens sometimes. They make mistakes sometimes also and almost always fix them when made aware of the error.
The fact that you told me to make sure I bet the right team makes me think you don't know what you're talking about.

They are adamant that it's a loss because the game "is graded according to the score at the end of the last completed inning". Their rules make no mention of this.

Ps Whats worse is it was one leg of an otherwise winning parlay
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Old 04-22-2021, 06:38 AM   #2404
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nebraska123 View Post
The fact that you told me to make sure I bet the right team makes me think you don't know what you're talking about.

They are adamant that it's a loss because the game "is graded according to the score at the end of the last completed inning". Their rules make no mention of this.

Ps Whats worse is it was one leg of an otherwise winning parlay
slandering someone trying to help you in a situation you yourself are so helpless to solve you create an account at a forum to seek help is never a good idea, you pretty much just killed any chance of anyone reaching out with further advice

well done chief
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Old 04-22-2021, 11:04 AM   #2405
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nebraska123 View Post
My bet on ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (vs CINCINNATI REDS) from last night was graded a loss.

The game was 5-4 ARIZONA in the top of the 8th when it was suspended due to rain.

Anyone else with this issue? Their rules simply state that games are official after 5 innings.

Thanks
Iíve seen posts around of this being voided, a Dbacks win, and a Cinci win. Depends on rules of the book.
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:40 PM   #2406
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by nebraska123 View Post
The fact that you told me to make sure I bet the right team makes me think you don't know what you're talking about.

They are adamant that it's a loss because the game "is graded according to the score at the end of the last completed inning". Their rules make no mention of this.

Ps Whats worse is it was one leg of an otherwise winning parlay
Are you talking about the game on April 20th? Because if so, that game ended up going the full 9 innings.
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Old 04-22-2021, 01:41 PM   #2407
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll View Post
slandering someone trying to help you in a situation you yourself are so helpless to solve you create an account at a forum to seek help is never a good idea, you pretty much just killed any chance of anyone reaching out with further advice

well done chief
And not even an account at SBR, just a poker forum that can't possibly show up first when you type sports betting forums.
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Old 04-22-2021, 03:35 PM   #2408
nebraska123
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by atrainpsu View Post
Iíve seen posts around of this being voided, a Dbacks win, and a Cinci win. Depends on rules of the book.
This was at Betonline fwiw. And their rules make no mention of this
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Old 04-22-2021, 06:53 PM   #2409
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

There is no way this should be graded as a Dbacks win. From BOL's rules:

Quote:
For any instances not mentioned here, Las Vegas wagering rules apply
https://nvsportsbooks.com/houserules/

Quote:
IF A GAME IS CANCELLED OR SUSPENDED AFTER FIVE (5) INNINGS THE WINNER IS DETERMINED BY THE SCORE AFTER THE LAST FULL INNING (UNLESS THE HOME TEAM SCORES TO TIE, OR TAKES THE LEAD IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE INNING, IN WHICH CASE THE WINNER IS DETERMINED BY THE SCORE AT THE TIME THE GAME IS CALLED). EVENTS DO NOT CARRY OVER TO THE FOLLOWING DAY.
This is pretty standard stuff for anyone familiar with baseball.
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Old 04-27-2021, 08:50 PM   #2410
nebraska123
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

is there any way to avoid the 3.5% CRIS withdrawal fee they added without warning?

total theft
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Old 05-03-2021, 09:53 PM   #2411
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I managed to get a MLB moneyline at +1000. This is on a legal regulated book. Obviously a mistake. Placed the bet yesterday (Sunday) and game is Tuesday. Is legal for them to void the bet? Will they? It's been over 24 hours and still ok.
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Old 05-03-2021, 10:48 PM   #2412
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by eastern motors View Post
I managed to get a MLB moneyline at +1000. This is on a legal regulated book. Obviously a mistake. Placed the bet yesterday (Sunday) and game is Tuesday. Is legal for them to void the bet? Will they? It's been over 24 hours and still ok.
I'm not very knowledgeable about the regulatory side of the business, but my understanding from working in Nevada is that here they would probably have to let it ride.
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Old 05-04-2021, 07:15 AM   #2413
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by eastern motors View Post
I managed to get a MLB moneyline at +1000. This is on a legal regulated book. Obviously a mistake. Placed the bet yesterday (Sunday) and game is Tuesday. Is legal for them to void the bet? Will they? It's been over 24 hours and still ok.
In the U.K. it will either be voided or your account will be banned unless your losing a tonne long term
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Old 05-04-2021, 03:22 PM   #2414
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by cockandbull View Post
In the U.K. it will either be voided or your account will be banned unless your losing a tonne long term
Or both...
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Old 05-16-2021, 09:18 AM   #2415
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

i have a query:

Let's say I'm making live tennis bets. Is there a website that shows the lines when they opened.

Thanks,
meshanti
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Old 05-19-2021, 09:47 PM   #2416
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Meshanti, if I were you, I'd build a simple scraper in Python that takes the odds from either SBR, Oddsportal, and have it pull the odds from the site. It may take a few days to notice when certain books post their odds.

A longer method might be to scrape the book you use the most, and keep an eye on how lines move over time.
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Old 05-29-2021, 02:52 PM   #2417
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I coded a function to calculate NBA/NHL series probabilities and exact-score probabilities using the game probability at each location. However, the series probability depends on a constant. In games when a team has a chance to clinch the series (except Game 7), said team is more likely to win. The endangered team's probability of winning that game is multiplied by the constant. For the NBA, a cursory glance tells me that this constant is about 0.8, for instance the Heat went from being almost 50% to win a home game to almost 40%.

Does 0.8 sound right for the NBA in general?

What should it be for the NHL and MLB?
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Old 05-29-2021, 04:43 PM   #2418
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Isolating the situations where an NBA team has won 3 games in a best-of-seven series, and the next game number in the series is less than 7, it looks like that team wins the next game 63% of the time (with n=338). So that's a coefficient of 1-(0.63-0.50)=0.87 (or 1.13 depending on which team you want to apply the adjustment to) if I've correctly understood your question.

Last edited by rabbitcoin; 05-29-2021 at 04:55 PM. Reason: edited for clarity
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Old 05-29-2021, 05:14 PM   #2419
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Not quite, I'm multiplying the coefficient by the baseline probability, which depends on the matchup. I'd plug in the Game 1 probability based on the vig-free moneyline. That would be the favorite's home probability h, from which I'd estimate their road probability r. With a coefficient of 1, the favorite's probabilities would be (h,h,r,r,h,r,h), but if the coefficient is x<1 then games 4-6 can have probabilities hx, rx, 1-(1-h)x, or 1-(1-r)x.

I imagine that the situation is worth a fixed amount of points in the spread, and I'm trying to translate that to a probability reduction for the endangered team. My coefficient approach might be bad altogether; I haven't given it much thought, nor have I looked at historical lines to see if 0.8 is right. I'm basing 0.8 solely on the difference in the Bucks/Heat moneyline between games 3 & 4, trusting that the market knew the value of the situation. I'm curious if anyone here has already done a similar analysis (but less lazily / with a sample larger than one).
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Old 05-30-2021, 12:23 AM   #2420
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

My theory is supported by the Sixers/Wizards Game 4 moneyline, as well as a few historical playoff lines from the past two seasons.

However, apparently in the finals, the effect is the opposite: the endangered team gets the probability increase. Unless there were injuries during the past two finals?

I wonder why the effect would be opposite before vs during the finals. Could it be that in the finals, both teams really want to win, whereas before the finals, the team that's facing elimination realizes that losing would mean their vacation begins?
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Old 05-30-2021, 12:49 PM   #2421
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
However, apparently in the finals, the effect is the opposite
I take that back after looking back to 2014. Instead, the effect seems to disappear, meaning I'd set the coefficient to 1.
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Old 05-31-2021, 03:29 PM   #2422
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I have the Habs for tonight against the Leafs. In typical Montreal fashion I think they pull the epic comeback against the superior Toronto team just to lose in 4 or 5 games in the next round and everybody including the media is happy. +180 in b365
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Old 06-02-2021, 06:49 PM   #2423
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I received a typo-ridden email from a @protonmail.com account on Monday to the address I used to register my NitrogenSports account with the subject "Fw: Latest info Nitrogensports Fraud!!!!". It was addressed to ~15 addresses which mostly looked like personal email accounts but included affiliates@nitrogensports.eu and marketing@nitrogensports.eu. Of course it listed all the emails plainly in the To line. Looks like somebody using ProtonMail doesn't care about others' privacy. Here's the email:

Quote:
THEY ARE NOT ANONYMOUS AS THEY SAY, THEY USE YOUR IP ADDRESSES TO LOCATE INFO AND ARE WORKING ALONG TERRORISTS AND MONEY LAUNDERERS USING YOUR ACCOUNTS BACKSTAGE MAKING UP YOUR BALANCES NUMBERS IN ORDER TO REPORT THEM AS GAMBLINNG ERANINGS AND THEN WHEN IT IS NEEDED THEY WILL REPORT YOU ALL TO THE USA TAX AND NON LEGAL-ANTIU TERRORIST GAMBLING AUTHORITIES TO MAKE YOU ALL SEE AS THE ONES LAUDERING MONEY WHILE THEY RUN AWAY. I HAVE THE PROOF AND WILL SHARE IT IN THE INTERNET AND THEY CAN DO WAHTEVER THEY WEANT AGAINST ME CAUSE AND I WILL WIPE OUT MY ASS WITH THE CONFIDENTIALLY AGREEMENT THEY SAY THEY MAKE ME SIGN!
It went on to attach a screenshot showing what looked like an Excel file including some deposit and win/loss information from various accounts and included IP addresses although the last digit looked zeroed out on all of them (zeroing out the last digit of IPs is a semi-common practice in "anonymizing" them). It also included what looked like an SBR complaint form receipt:

Quote:
Name:
Date: 05/31/2021 - 06:25:25pm
Sportsbook: NitrogenSports
Account #: ###### (OMITTED@gmail.com)
Ip Address: XXX.XXX.XXX.VPN
Type: Costa Rica
Email Address: help@sportsbookreview.com
Reply to Address: OMITTED2@gmail.com
Country Of Residence: Costa Rica
Alt Contact: OMITTED@gmail.com
Name of Account Holder:
Forwarding Sportsbook Email: Yes
Requested copy: Yes
Authorize to Disclose Dispute Info: Yes
Forum Screen Name to Create:
Description:
I am an insider of Nitrogen Sports operatiosn whic are located in Costa Rica. I have very important information about customers accounts whith huge BTC balances as well as the plans of NitrogenSports to use this next Sports high season to accumulate winnings and customers funds balances and run away. I am at the operational department and tey have left out of the earnings so I am willing to let all customers know about it, so they are carefull by depositing since they will not let them withdraw their money at some pioinbt as they are doing right now. There are hundreds of customers which have their balnaces withheld by NitrogenSports making up things so they can keep cheating customers longer before they run away which will be right after the high season ends. The information I have is clear and I can share it at any time. If you are interested in letting this customers know feel free, anyways I will make all of the information public all over the internet. Thnak you in advance for your attention to this matte
The name was blanked out in the email but the account number (looks like the right number of digits for a Nitrogen account #) and the email addresses were listed in the clear. I omitted them here. The first three octets of the IP in the SBR receipt were also listed in the clear with the last octet being "VPN". Quoted typos are included here verbatim. There were some commonalities to the omitted gmail.com addresses and the protonmail.com address and it seems likely they belong to the same person.

Anyway, I'm curious if anybody else got something like this. I'm not sure what to think about it. Personally I expect a sportsbook to use IP addresses as a fraud prevention tool. I'm a little concerned that my email address leaked to this person but not overly so. Nonetheless, I've been screwed by books before and with the increase in crypto value over the last year I figured I could reduce my exposure to Nitrogen a bit. My guess is there's a disgruntled former employee at Nitrogen. I did a withdrawal of the majority of my balance and it processed successfully. I know some users on this forum have had issues with Nitrogen in the past but I've been a relatively happy, winning customer of theirs for a few years. Thoughts?
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Old 06-03-2021, 02:24 PM   #2424
atrainpsu
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by heehaww View Post
My theory is supported by the Sixers/Wizards Game 4 moneyline, as well as a few historical playoff lines from the past two seasons.

However, apparently in the finals, the effect is the opposite: the endangered team gets the probability increase. Unless there were injuries during the past two finals?

I wonder why the effect would be opposite before vs during the finals. Could it be that in the finals, both teams really want to win, whereas before the finals, the team that's facing elimination realizes that losing would mean their vacation begins?
Seems like you are trying to datamine trends?
Isolating to just the NBA finals would have a huge sample size problem.

Perhaps...Compare home teams down 2-0, vs home teams down 3-0. From my recollection, that seems to be where youíll see the biggest change in expected win probability.
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