Quote:
Originally Posted by businessdude
yeah, I thought of the bold, but they say the minimum of amount wagered and amount won counts - so $500 at -500 only ups the wagered tally by $100. (This seems pretty shady - still risking $500. Is this normal?)
Do you mean like a "middle" strategy?
and yeah, to bet a -500 favorite is pretty much lighting money on fire, you need to win 83% of the time just to break even, there are times when it's worth betting for sure but it's investing a lot for a small payout and a high risk of ruin
middling is what you were contemplating of betting both sides, but instead of blindly eating vig, there's enough room in the middle between both sides where you could feasibly win both bets if the result is in the sweet spot
this is most commonly done via multiple books where one book has a team at -7 and another at -9, you bet team a -7 and team b +9, if team a wins by 7 or 9, you push one and win other, if by 8 then you win both, of course most of the time they don't win by 7-9 points and you lose on vig but at times it can very low risk for a chance at a high payout
since you're doing one book, the idea would be to bet half on a spread right when the line opens, this is a bet you are fine with no matter what as the market may not move in your chosen direction and you're stuck without a middle opportunity
good middle spots are most common in player props where books are more likely to come up with their own numbers instead of tailing another so you could get Lebron o/u 26.5 points on one and o/u 23.5 points on another - of course you're likely eating massive vig on props though
a good rule of thumb is that if you tail bets the sharps share here occasionally, the line is quite certain to move in that direction, but then again that's already quite possibly a high ev play to begin with so may be best to just ride out the variance
gl