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 Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

01-01-2020, 09:18 PM   #1951
TomG
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: prop manager, crowdsource syndicate
Posts: 3,948
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by PokerHero77 This can be calculated, but a high overround will cause the favorite's odds to become negative. Formula is: odds(a) = (-Pr(a)*o + Pr(a) + Pr(b)) / (Pr(a)*o) where: o = overround With 115% and equal -EV on each bet, odds for dog is 16.39:1, and fav is -0.0847:1. EV for both is -0.13. Assuming a more reasonable overround, such as 103%, dog is 18.4:1 and fav is 0.022:1, or -4450 US. EV for both is -0.029. IMO the better way of setting odds is using a book EG neutral approach, that is the book's EG is the same regardless of the outcome. I assume \$1M risk capital and \$100,000 total bet on the event, and assume action is in proportion to the true probabilities. For 103% overround the EG neutral odds would be dog 13.9:1, and fav 0.0386:1, or -2490 US. EG is 73% compounded over 1,000 events regardless of outcome.
Thank you for the thoughtful post full of great examples and information. I learn best by doing so I plan on using this information to create a spreadsheet calculator to work through some examples. Please continue to share any other resources you think might be useful. Thanks again, you'd make a formidable bookmaker.

 01-03-2020, 08:04 AM #1952 Deeply Miserable banned   Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 706 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) How is only one Eagles team top 20 all-time in Sitting Starter adjusted DVOA? And a lowly 15th at that. Is Aaron okay? Did someone hijack his model and stop having it say Donovan McNabb is the greatest?
 01-03-2020, 09:19 PM #1953 ProfessorBen Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: Meet my friend, "Tomato" Posts: 9,897 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) This happens when I try to cashout of BM after I put in verification code, I contacted support and they told me to try different devices/browser/clearing cookies, and the same thing happens no matter what I do. After telling them that, they don't say anything new and are just unhelpful. Any suggestions for what I should do/or at least tell support? (I did somewhat solve the situation via the traditional cash out with Celtics 1H ML just now)
 01-04-2020, 06:42 AM #1954 Deeply Miserable banned   Join Date: May 2019 Posts: 706 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) They're depo only for a few weeks now.
01-04-2020, 12:15 PM   #1955
NajdorfDefense
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Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: World’s Greatest Posèur
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Deeply Miserable How is only one Eagles team top 20 all-time in Sitting Starter adjusted DVOA? And a lowly 15th at that. Is Aaron okay? Did someone hijack his model and stop having it say Donovan McNabb is the greatest?
s'okay though, 1991 Eagles are still far and away the best defense of alltime.

 01-04-2020, 01:03 PM #1956 DefNotRsigley Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Sep 2013 Posts: 10,389 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) Sports books must be killing it so much. Lot of #gamblingtwitter bragging about getting -130 on Wong teasers instead of -139 offered by FanDuel and how they’re going to make so much more money by line shopping. Ignore the fact that they are barely profitable at -110 I withdrew from bookmaker on thurs but I had to use edge. Wire hit one day later on fri as usual
01-04-2020, 01:24 PM   #1957
HolidayInTheSun
old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,208
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Deeply Miserable They're depo only for a few weeks now.
we requested and received a max withdrawal yesterday.

check cookies as this often causes issues with their site
check that you're not over the daily/monthly payout limit

if it's not one of those, good luck. their customer service is abysmal.

01-04-2020, 01:48 PM   #1958
rickroll
oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,560
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley Sports books must be killing it so much. Lot of #gamblingtwitter bragging about getting -130 on Wong teasers instead of -139 offered by FanDuel and how theyre going to make so much more money by line shopping.
Just saw that thread, dude is one of the dumber touts out there. A few months back we had an exchange and I mentioned "if you played poker you'd understand this concept" and he gave a response stating he had a career in poker before DFS. I asked where he played and never responded so I googled him and he was a dealer in a small card room in Colorado.

 01-04-2020, 02:01 PM #1959 Like banned   Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) lol thats the best. Poker dealers who are 'into poker' are the absolute WORST
01-09-2020, 07:42 AM   #1960
PaiDaMorte

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: trying to be better
Posts: 708
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense s'okay though, 1991 Eagles are still far and away the best defense of alltime.
are you serious?

 01-09-2020, 08:13 AM #1961 khl newbie   Join Date: Mar 2019 Posts: 21 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) One of my bookies offers a bet where you can combine half time Handicaps with full time Handicaps for the same match (Basketball). How can I calculate the threshold where this bet becomes +EV? E.g. letŽs take the Euroleague Basketball game between Alba Berlin and Maccabi Tel Aviv. Pinnaclesports has Alba Berlin +4,5 @ 1.952 (in american odds: -105) Maccabi Tel Aviv -4,5 @ 1.934 (in american odds: -107) The bookie that IŽm referring to offers the bets: Alba Berlin 1st half +2,5 + Alba Berlin full time +4,5 and Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st half -2,5 + Maccabi Tel Aviv full time -4,5 You need to hit both the HT spread as well as the FT spread to win the bet. I still think there has to be a threshold where the bet becomes +EV, because when the team covers the HT spread covering the FT spread becomes more likely automatically. I deliberately omitted the odds for the bets, because IŽm interested in how to go about calculating the threshold for a +EV bet starting from the Pinnacle odds.
 01-09-2020, 08:21 AM #1962 kolotoure2.0 centurion   Join Date: Apr 2018 Posts: 129 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) How liquid are these markets? Obviously if these are small markets than the Pinnacle line data isn't going to be too valuable Have you tried looking at historic HT and FT scores?
 01-09-2020, 08:51 AM #1963 rickroll oddly catty     Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant Posts: 7,560 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) Just listened to an economist podcast that darts has a chance to get big in the US, could be good for you guys here that are ahead of the curve on that already
01-09-2020, 09:11 AM   #1964
PaiDaMorte

Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: trying to be better
Posts: 708
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by khl One of my bookies offers a bet where you can combine half time Handicaps with full time Handicaps for the same match (Basketball). How can I calculate the threshold where this bet becomes +EV? E.g. letŽs take the Euroleague Basketball game between Alba Berlin and Maccabi Tel Aviv. Pinnaclesports has Alba Berlin +4,5 @ 1.952 (in american odds: -105) Maccabi Tel Aviv -4,5 @ 1.934 (in american odds: -107) The bookie that IŽm referring to offers the bets: Alba Berlin 1st half +2,5 + Alba Berlin full time +4,5 and Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st half -2,5 + Maccabi Tel Aviv full time -4,5 You need to hit both the HT spread as well as the FT spread to win the bet. I still think there has to be a threshold where the bet becomes +EV, because when the team covers the HT spread covering the FT spread becomes more likely automatically. I deliberately omitted the odds for the bets, because IŽm interested in how to go about calculating the threshold for a +EV bet starting from the Pinnacle odds.

01-09-2020, 10:34 AM   #1965
hesse113
enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Boston MA
Posts: 75
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Bob148 What up? Carbon is going to give me three free \$5 bets, but I'm a noob when it comes to sports betting. I have one for NFL preseason, one for college football, and one for NFL regular season. Should I just go for favorites covering the spread to give myself the best chance of ending with cash in my account? Is this one of those things that I can't screw up? Thanks.
Probably not.

Picking against the public generates a decent edge - I've heard around 52%. You can use a site like Yahoo to determine what most bettors are doing.

Picking dogs on the road historically also generates an edge; someone else on this board posted about 52.7% recently.

There's an old saying: "sharps like points." Picking favorites to cover probably is not the best strategy.

Background: I've picked all games on Yahoo Pick Em' at just over 54% for the past two years.

01-09-2020, 12:19 PM   #1966
daringly
enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 85
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by khl One of my bookies offers a bet where you can combine half time Handicaps with full time Handicaps for the same match (Basketball). How can I calculate the threshold where this bet becomes +EV?
This is a monster correlation. If you are getting close to 2.6:1, you probably end up betting most of them.

01-09-2020, 02:31 PM   #1967
Like
banned

Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by PaiDaMorte be careful about making assumptions
lol look another nonsense cryptic drive by. this fookin guy...

 01-09-2020, 02:32 PM #1968 Like banned   Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 1,307 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) which by the way is even worse than nonsense. Those bets are massive +EV
01-09-2020, 05:23 PM   #1969
khl
newbie

Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 21
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by kolotoure2.0 How liquid are these markets? Obviously if these are small markets than the Pinnacle line data isn't going to be too valuable Have you tried looking at historic HT and FT scores?
500 € max bet, but I can circumvent this limit quite easily.
Euroleague Basketball is not a small market, it is the most popular
Basketball competition in Europe and IŽm pretty sure that it
has the highest betting limits in Basketball apart from the NBA.

I know that the Pinnacle lines arenŽt as sharp as they used to be and I also know that
they recently increased their vig. However, I was just using Pinnacle as an example benchmark, I could just as easily use any other bookmaker as a benchmark.

I have not yet looked at the historical data, because IŽm still trying to figure out
how big the correlation is (or rather how to calculate it).

Quote:
 Originally Posted by daringly This is a monster correlation. If you are getting close to 2.6:1, you probably end up betting most of them.
I get less than 2.6:1.
Nevertheless I still think that the bets could potentially be +EV as I donŽt have to bet every game
and I can pick certain spots.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Like which by the way is even worse than nonsense. Those bets are massive +EV
I hope so.

IŽll give you guys another example from the NBA.

Pinnacle has:
Celtics +2,5 @ 1.869 (american odds: -115)

My bookie offers:
Celtics half time +1,5 / Celtics full time +2,5 @ 2.40 (american odds: +140)

Is this bet potentially +EV?
How big would the odds need to be to make this a +EV bet?

Remember that I need to hit both the +1,5 half time spread as well as the full time +2,5 spread in order to win this bet.

 01-09-2020, 05:34 PM #1970 rickroll oddly catty     Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant Posts: 7,560 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) I feel bad now for criticizing the parlays in uncut gems
01-09-2020, 07:19 PM   #1971
MyTurn2Raise
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by popbottle I thought we'd be above this by now, but here we are
evergreen

01-09-2020, 10:04 PM   #1972
daringly
enthusiast

Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 85
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by khl IŽll give you guys another example from the NBA. Pinnacle has: Celtics +2,5 @ 1.869 (american odds: -115) My bookie offers: Celtics half time +1,5 / Celtics full time +2,5 @ 2.40 (american odds: +140) Is this bet potentially +EV? How big would the odds need to be to make this a +EV bet? Remember that I need to hit both the +1,5 half time spread as well as the full time +2,5 spread in order to win this bet.
That looks like a reasonable price (but I'm not using any data).

Do they offer it for NCAAB? I could build a tool the price those parlays in about an hour (I already have data and a tool that prices many derivs and correlated parlays).

If you are betting US Baskets (NBA or NCAAB), I'd probably use Bookmaker's line -- it's sharper now IMO.

 01-09-2020, 10:48 PM #1973 tfall stranger   Join Date: Jan 2020 Posts: 7 Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current) I feel OKC will win this night. let we see
01-09-2020, 11:11 PM   #1974
PokerHero77
veteran

Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 2,518
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by khl IŽll give you guys another example from the NBA. Pinnacle has: Celtics +2,5 @ 1.869 (american odds: -115) My bookie offers: Celtics half time +1,5 / Celtics full time +2,5 @ 2.40 (american odds: +140) Is this bet potentially +EV? How big would the odds need to be to make this a +EV bet? Remember that I need to hit both the +1,5 half time spread as well as the full time +2,5 spread in order to win this bet.
I don't think +140 is good.

2 ways to figure this.

1) Assume +2.5 -110 no vig, so win chance 0.524. To b/e you would need 1H to hit 1/2.4/0.524 = 80%, which seems high to me. I did not look at the data but I'm guessing it would show +2.5 dogs that cover game also cover +1.5 1H about 70-75%.

2) Assume +1.5 1H win chance is 0.5. To b/e you would need game to hit 1/2.4/0.5 = 83%, which again seems high to me.

I'm fairly sure this would vary on handicap, and might also vary on fav/dog.

I think you need about -130 on the game to get close to +EV for +140.

01-10-2020, 02:51 AM   #1975
tfall
stranger

Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 7
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tfall I feel OKC will win this night. let we see
Cash Cash Cash

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