Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-01-2020, 09:18 PM   #1951
TomG
Pooh-Bah
 
TomG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: prop manager, crowdsource syndicate
Posts: 3,948
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77 View Post
This can be calculated, but a high overround will cause the favorite's odds to become negative.

Formula is: odds(a) = (-Pr(a)*o + Pr(a) + Pr(b)) / (Pr(a)*o)

where: o = overround

With 115% and equal -EV on each bet, odds for dog is 16.39:1, and fav is -0.0847:1. EV for both is -0.13.

Assuming a more reasonable overround, such as 103%, dog is 18.4:1 and fav is 0.022:1, or -4450 US. EV for both is -0.029.

IMO the better way of setting odds is using a book EG neutral approach, that is the book's EG is the same regardless of the outcome. I assume $1M risk capital and $100,000 total bet on the event, and assume action is in proportion to the true probabilities.

For 103% overround the EG neutral odds would be dog 13.9:1, and fav 0.0386:1, or -2490 US. EG is 73% compounded over 1,000 events regardless of outcome.
Thank you for the thoughtful post full of great examples and information. I learn best by doing so I plan on using this information to create a spreadsheet calculator to work through some examples. Please continue to share any other resources you think might be useful. Thanks again, you'd make a formidable bookmaker.
TomG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2020, 08:04 AM   #1952
Deeply Miserable
banned
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 706
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

How is only one Eagles team top 20 all-time in Sitting Starter adjusted DVOA? And a lowly 15th at that.

Is Aaron okay? Did someone hijack his model and stop having it say Donovan McNabb is the greatest?
Deeply Miserable is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-03-2020, 09:19 PM   #1953
ProfessorBen
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
ProfessorBen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Meet my friend, "Tomato"
Posts: 9,897
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

This happens when I try to cashout of BM after I put in verification code, I contacted support and they told me to try different devices/browser/clearing cookies, and the same thing happens no matter what I do. After telling them that, they don't say anything new and are just unhelpful.

Any suggestions for what I should do/or at least tell support? (I did somewhat solve the situation via the traditional cash out with Celtics 1H ML just now)

ProfessorBen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2020, 06:42 AM   #1954
Deeply Miserable
banned
 
Join Date: May 2019
Posts: 706
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

They're depo only for a few weeks now.
Deeply Miserable is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2020, 12:15 PM   #1955
NajdorfDefense
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
NajdorfDefense's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: World’s Greatest Posur
Posts: 16,941
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deeply Miserable View Post
How is only one Eagles team top 20 all-time in Sitting Starter adjusted DVOA? And a lowly 15th at that.

Is Aaron okay? Did someone hijack his model and stop having it say Donovan McNabb is the greatest?
s'okay though, 1991 Eagles are still far and away the best defense of alltime.
NajdorfDefense is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2020, 01:03 PM   #1956
DefNotRsigley
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 10,389
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Sports books must be killing it so much. Lot of #gamblingtwitter bragging about getting -130 on Wong teasers instead of -139 offered by FanDuel and how they’re going to make so much more money by line shopping.

Ignore the fact that they are barely profitable at -110

I withdrew from bookmaker on thurs but I had to use edge. Wire hit one day later on fri as usual
DefNotRsigley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2020, 01:24 PM   #1957
HolidayInTheSun
old hand
 
HolidayInTheSun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,208
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Deeply Miserable View Post
They're depo only for a few weeks now.
we requested and received a max withdrawal yesterday.

check cookies as this often causes issues with their site
check that you're not over the daily/monthly payout limit
check that they received and correctly marked your docs as verified

if it's not one of those, good luck. their customer service is abysmal.
HolidayInTheSun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2020, 01:48 PM   #1958
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,560
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DefNotRsigley View Post
Sports books must be killing it so much. Lot of #gamblingtwitter bragging about getting -130 on Wong teasers instead of -139 offered by FanDuel and how theyre going to make so much more money by line shopping.
Just saw that thread, dude is one of the dumber touts out there. A few months back we had an exchange and I mentioned "if you played poker you'd understand this concept" and he gave a response stating he had a career in poker before DFS. I asked where he played and never responded so I googled him and he was a dealer in a small card room in Colorado.
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2020, 02:01 PM   #1959
Like
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

lol thats the best. Poker dealers who are 'into poker' are the absolute WORST
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 07:42 AM   #1960
PaiDaMorte
adept
 
PaiDaMorte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: trying to be better
Posts: 708
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
s'okay though, 1991 Eagles are still far and away the best defense of alltime.
are you serious?
PaiDaMorte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 08:13 AM   #1961
khl
newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 21
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

One of my bookies offers a bet where you can combine half time Handicaps with full time Handicaps for the same match (Basketball).

How can I calculate the threshold where this bet becomes +EV?

E.g. lets take the Euroleague Basketball game between Alba Berlin and Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Pinnaclesports has
Alba Berlin +4,5 @ 1.952 (in american odds: -105)
Maccabi Tel Aviv -4,5 @ 1.934 (in american odds: -107)

The bookie that Im referring to offers the bets:
Alba Berlin 1st half +2,5 + Alba Berlin full time +4,5
and
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st half -2,5 + Maccabi Tel Aviv full time -4,5

You need to hit both the HT spread as well as the FT spread
to win the bet.
I still think there has to be a threshold where the bet becomes +EV, because
when the team covers the HT spread covering the FT spread becomes
more likely automatically. I deliberately omitted the odds for the bets, because Im
interested in how to go about calculating the threshold for a +EV bet starting
from the Pinnacle odds.
khl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 08:21 AM   #1962
kolotoure2.0
centurion
 
Join Date: Apr 2018
Posts: 129
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

How liquid are these markets? Obviously if these are small markets than the Pinnacle line data isn't going to be too valuable

Have you tried looking at historic HT and FT scores?
kolotoure2.0 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 08:51 AM   #1963
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,560
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Just listened to an economist podcast that darts has a chance to get big in the US, could be good for you guys here that are ahead of the curve on that already
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 09:11 AM   #1964
PaiDaMorte
adept
 
PaiDaMorte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: trying to be better
Posts: 708
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by khl View Post
One of my bookies offers a bet where you can combine half time Handicaps with full time Handicaps for the same match (Basketball).

How can I calculate the threshold where this bet becomes +EV?

E.g. lets take the Euroleague Basketball game between Alba Berlin and Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Pinnaclesports has
Alba Berlin +4,5 @ 1.952 (in american odds: -105)
Maccabi Tel Aviv -4,5 @ 1.934 (in american odds: -107)

The bookie that Im referring to offers the bets:
Alba Berlin 1st half +2,5 + Alba Berlin full time +4,5
and
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st half -2,5 + Maccabi Tel Aviv full time -4,5

You need to hit both the HT spread as well as the FT spread
to win the bet.
I still think there has to be a threshold where the bet becomes +EV, because
when the team covers the HT spread covering the FT spread becomes
more likely automatically. I deliberately omitted the odds for the bets, because Im
interested in how to go about calculating the threshold for a +EV bet starting
from the Pinnacle odds.
be careful about making assumptions
PaiDaMorte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 10:34 AM   #1965
hesse113
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Boston MA
Posts: 75
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob148 View Post
What up? Carbon is going to give me three free $5 bets, but I'm a noob when it comes to sports betting. I have one for NFL preseason, one for college football, and one for NFL regular season. Should I just go for favorites covering the spread to give myself the best chance of ending with cash in my account? Is this one of those things that I can't screw up?

Thanks.
Probably not.

Picking against the public generates a decent edge - I've heard around 52%. You can use a site like Yahoo to determine what most bettors are doing.

Picking dogs on the road historically also generates an edge; someone else on this board posted about 52.7% recently.

There's an old saying: "sharps like points." Picking favorites to cover probably is not the best strategy.

Background: I've picked all games on Yahoo Pick Em' at just over 54% for the past two years.
hesse113 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 12:19 PM   #1966
daringly
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 85
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by khl View Post
One of my bookies offers a bet where you can combine half time Handicaps with full time Handicaps for the same match (Basketball).

How can I calculate the threshold where this bet becomes +EV?
This is a monster correlation. If you are getting close to 2.6:1, you probably end up betting most of them.
daringly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 02:31 PM   #1967
Like
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PaiDaMorte View Post
be careful about making assumptions
lol look another nonsense cryptic drive by. this fookin guy...
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 02:32 PM   #1968
Like
banned
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 1,307
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

which by the way is even worse than nonsense. Those bets are massive +EV
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 05:23 PM   #1969
khl
newbie
 
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 21
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by kolotoure2.0 View Post
How liquid are these markets? Obviously if these are small markets than the Pinnacle line data isn't going to be too valuable

Have you tried looking at historic HT and FT scores?
500 € max bet, but I can circumvent this limit quite easily.
Euroleague Basketball is not a small market, it is the most popular
Basketball competition in Europe and Im pretty sure that it
has the highest betting limits in Basketball apart from the NBA.

I know that the Pinnacle lines arent as sharp as they used to be and I also know that
they recently increased their vig. However, I was just using Pinnacle as an example benchmark, I could just as easily use any other bookmaker as a benchmark.

I have not yet looked at the historical data, because Im still trying to figure out
how big the correlation is (or rather how to calculate it).

Quote:
Originally Posted by daringly View Post
This is a monster correlation. If you are getting close to 2.6:1, you probably end up betting most of them.
I get less than 2.6:1.
Nevertheless I still think that the bets could potentially be +EV as I dont have to bet every game
and I can pick certain spots.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
which by the way is even worse than nonsense. Those bets are massive +EV
I hope so.

Ill give you guys another example from the NBA.

Pinnacle has:
Celtics +2,5 @ 1.869 (american odds: -115)

My bookie offers:
Celtics half time +1,5 / Celtics full time +2,5 @ 2.40 (american odds: +140)

Is this bet potentially +EV?
How big would the odds need to be to make this a +EV bet?

Remember that I need to hit both the +1,5 half time spread as well as the full time +2,5 spread in order to win this bet.
khl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 05:34 PM   #1970
rickroll
oddly catty
 
rickroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: serene, serene, puissant, puissant
Posts: 7,560
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I feel bad now for criticizing the parlays in uncut gems
rickroll is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 07:19 PM   #1971
MyTurn2Raise
Drug Free MVP
 
MyTurn2Raise's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Descalso, Jay, and the pitcher
Posts: 40,622
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by popbottle View Post
I thought we'd be above this by now, but here we are
evergreen
MyTurn2Raise is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 10:04 PM   #1972
daringly
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 85
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by khl View Post
Ill give you guys another example from the NBA.

Pinnacle has:
Celtics +2,5 @ 1.869 (american odds: -115)

My bookie offers:
Celtics half time +1,5 / Celtics full time +2,5 @ 2.40 (american odds: +140)

Is this bet potentially +EV?
How big would the odds need to be to make this a +EV bet?

Remember that I need to hit both the +1,5 half time spread as well as the full time +2,5 spread in order to win this bet.
That looks like a reasonable price (but I'm not using any data).

Do they offer it for NCAAB? I could build a tool the price those parlays in about an hour (I already have data and a tool that prices many derivs and correlated parlays).

If you are betting US Baskets (NBA or NCAAB), I'd probably use Bookmaker's line -- it's sharper now IMO.
daringly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 10:48 PM   #1973
tfall
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 7
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I feel OKC will win this night. let we see
tfall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2020, 11:11 PM   #1974
PokerHero77
veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 2,518
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by khl View Post
Ill give you guys another example from the NBA.

Pinnacle has:
Celtics +2,5 @ 1.869 (american odds: -115)

My bookie offers:
Celtics half time +1,5 / Celtics full time +2,5 @ 2.40 (american odds: +140)

Is this bet potentially +EV?
How big would the odds need to be to make this a +EV bet?

Remember that I need to hit both the +1,5 half time spread as well as the full time +2,5 spread in order to win this bet.
I don't think +140 is good.

2 ways to figure this.

1) Assume +2.5 -110 no vig, so win chance 0.524. To b/e you would need 1H to hit 1/2.4/0.524 = 80%, which seems high to me. I did not look at the data but I'm guessing it would show +2.5 dogs that cover game also cover +1.5 1H about 70-75%.

2) Assume +1.5 1H win chance is 0.5. To b/e you would need game to hit 1/2.4/0.5 = 83%, which again seems high to me.

I'm fairly sure this would vary on handicap, and might also vary on fav/dog.

I think you need about -130 on the game to get close to +EV for +140.
PokerHero77 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-10-2020, 02:51 AM   #1975
tfall
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 7
Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by tfall View Post
I feel OKC will win this night. let we see
Cash Cash Cash
tfall is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:21 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online