It is SOP to steal earned but not redeemed points.

Justin is a weirdo sociopath who lies routinely and I don't really understand why.

Yes. Wild how high a % of "respected posters" don't actually bet.

unless you know enough diamond tier points earners who have not had their points flaked then IMO it's too risky for the ~20% gain and wouldn't wait 1-2 months, it definitely is standard operating procedure to have them flaked off of you.

in my experience, the points go missing the minute they find out that you might have a clue what you're doing, but if you ask for them, they'll pay them. at the worst rate possible. i'd say best strategy is if you've been placing a string of sharp/winning bets, it's a good time to cash them in at a preferable rate while you can. if the account isn't seeing much action, then you can let them accumulate and hope to ride it out a bit longer

oh, found this in a notepad file called "funny chat which shows what scum bookmaker is"

Must be 6 digits long (numbers only)
Info at 15:40, Nov 28:
Thank you for choosing to chat with us. An agent will be with you shortly.
Info at 15:40, Nov 28:
You are now chatting with Joe.
You at 15:40, Nov 28:
hi, my betpoints were turned in to cash, but a mistake was made
Joe at 15:40, Nov 28:
Welcome to our Live Chat Department. My name is Joe. How may I be of assistance?
Joe at 15:40, Nov 28:
Hello XXXXX,
You at 15:41, Nov 28:
PIN XXXXXX
Joe at 15:41, Nov 28:
I will be more than glad to help you
You at 15:41, Nov 28:
i received 379 in cash but i should have received 569. i had 76,000 betpoints
You at 15:41, Nov 28:
see here please: https://www.bookmaker.eu/loyalty-program-cashback
Joe at 15:43, Nov 28:
Just a minute.
Joe at 15:44, Nov 28:
The betpoints are exchanged at the lowest level.
Joe at 15:45, Nov 28:
There's no mistake on your Betpoint/Cash Balace.
You at 15:45, Nov 28:
yes, but exchanging them at the lowest level, when i was at a higher level is just the same as stealing them really
You at 15:45, Nov 28:
do you see why?
Joe at 15:46, Nov 28:
Yes.
Joe at 15:46, Nov 28:
Our apologies, however, our BetPoints program, Free Play & cash bonus offers are only for recreational customers. A review of your betting activity has identified your account as non-recreational, therefore, we can no longer offer you any promotions or bonuses.
You at 15:46, Nov 28:
i understand that of course
Joe at 15:46, Nov 28:
We are making an exepction giving you those Betpoints.
You at 15:46, Nov 28:
i am just asking for my points to be granted to me at the correct rate
You at 15:46, Nov 28:
i did earn them
You at 15:47, Nov 28:
i would like them to be converted properly
Joe at 15:47, Nov 28:
That is not going to happen. Please keep in mind that we state on our House Rules that the bonus points are not mandatory and we can banned from this program to anyone.
Joe at 15:48, Nov 28:
You got the Betpoints at the lowest rate.
You at 15:49, Nov 28:
thanks joe
You at 15:49, Nov 28:
nice company you work for
You at 15:49, Nov 28:
have a great day!
Joe at 15:49, Nov 28:
If that will be all for you today, please do not hesitate to contact us with any questions or concerns. We are happy to assist you.
Joe at 15:49, Nov 28:
If that’s all for now, remember you can always visit our ‘Help Center’ at: https://get.bookmaker.help/hc/en-us or feel free to contact us again via chat.

If you need anything in the future, do not hesitate to ask for me, my name is Joe

In order to improve our service, kindly fill out the following post-chat survey.

Thank you for choosing bookmaker.eu

lets get philosophical, gang. how should we judge the behaviour of people like Joe here? perhaps the Nuremberg defense can be of use:

thus, i think we can rightly conclude that joe and his colleagues are not innocents here, and deserve whatever shall befall them. further,

spend it while you can denise. we are coming for you.

Remember when TomG got all my BetPoints confiscated? With compound interest those points would be worth so much

I totally forgot betpoints existed. No idea what Platinum level is worth. I only lose there so at least mine won't get stolen, it's the book where all my great value bets push and the rest lose by 1 or 100.

Thanks for the feedback.

I didn’t even think about the betpoints until I realized I had like 60k.

Honestly, I’m not sure how they would classify me as a player. All my bets are props, in game, and 2nd halfs, but I am rarely beating closing lines and a marginal winner there.

I'm amazed Vegas made Miami a 7-pt fave in Louisiana vs LaTech after losing to Duke and FIU. Just amazed, esp after our 3 top offensive weapons aren't playing and 3 starting defenders decided to work on their draft grades instead of playing.

I got the under and LA Tech, so expect miami to score 40 in the last couple of minutes

I wonder if there's more advantage now with so many people sitting our bowls since they mean nothing for them. Lets become qual analysts

Sherrock was +470 at BM solid value. Don't they know it's the year of the woman?

shits getting wild out here

Guess Fins +24 teasers was good.

Bookmaking question.

Suppose a fair line for an event is 5% to happen, 95% to not. We want to build an over round into the market so the probability sums to 115%. What is the formula for a fair way to distribute the over round so that both sides offer an equally negative EV proposition?

The method I was using gives an individual probability greater than 1 so I assume I'm doing something wrong.

As you observed, you can't nicely use an even split hold that puts one target above 100%.

If your goal is to hold equivalent to a 15% overround for both bets (this isn't what you asked), you could convert each event to odds, and divide those odds above 1 by your overround.

Your 95% event has decimal odds of 1.052632. I'd adjust the payoff to 1 + (0.052632)/1.15, or 1.045767.

Your dog event would have raw odds of 19:1, or 16.65:1 after dividing.

A majority of the house's theoretical hold comes form the 95% event (not surprising) even though the dog odds "look" more adjusted.

one time

Thanks for responding. I'll try switching to decimal odds for this type of work. I've never considered the problem from the bookmaker's point of view before so it's a good exercise for me.

Sucks he bricked the double 20 to go up 3-1. Still MVG won't be throwing all these 180s the whole match will he?

Wright just crushed him, nice win.

"No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse."

RIP David Stern. League TV contract went from $10m/yr on cable to almost $3000m a yr on cable in 20 years under his 3-decade leadership.

Who will rig the lotto and the picking of playoff officials and cover up Jordan's gambling on the NBA now, sigley?

This can be calculated, but a high overround will cause the favorite's odds to become negative.

Formula is: odds(a) = (-Pr(a)*o + Pr(a) + Pr(b)) / (Pr(a)*o)

where: o = overround

With 115% and equal -EV on each bet, odds for dog is 16.39:1, and fav is -0.0847:1. EV for both is -0.13.

Assuming a more reasonable overround, such as 103%, dog is 18.4:1 and fav is 0.022:1, or -4450 US. EV for both is -0.029.

IMO the better way of setting odds is using a book EG neutral approach, that is the book's EG is the same regardless of the outcome. I assume $1M risk capital and $100,000 total bet on the event, and assume action is in proportion to the true probabilities.

For 103% overround the EG neutral odds would be dog 13.9:1, and fav 0.0386:1, or -2490 US. EG is 73% compounded over 1,000 events regardless of outcome.

Did he kill Michael Jordan's dad to send a message?

Thanks. Yea he was great, consistent throughout. Pretty dominant apart from that one set there.

Now the real sweat is on. Withdrawing 40k from an agent with a 4500 exposure limit.

I put some on him myself after the semis, nice to book the first win of the year.