ugh that sucked. Not my best performance. I choked under the lights.

poogsy grab your favorite set of daily fantasy projections and use them to go h2h on total bases with me. some good ones are sabersim, dailyfantasynerd, baseballmonster, dailyroto, and the bat. pick one or take the average of a few. we can beat the books together.

many longtime sports bettors say networking with other bettors is a valuable skill and perhaps the most underrated aspect of a longterm, successful sports gambling career. i know it's something i could improve upon.

how is everyone doing today?

let's make it a great day!

MAKE SPORTS BETTING FORUM GREAT AGAIN

it's opening day
all your gambling dreams come true
another blown save

just when I thought I’d never read this forum again, you pull the hulk hogan real american thing where he’s been getting beat up for 5 minutes and takes a solid punch to the forehead and starts shaking his head in defiance. another punch landed to the forehead, more defiant shaking until finally he finds the strength to punch back, land a hulk-sized boot to the face and finish off his opponent with the big leg drop.

who will fight for the rights of every man? fight for what’s right? fight for your liiife?

tomg will. damn american hero.

if it aint poisson it aint for poogs.


Actually Ive never thought of taking on total bases really. Hmmm... you gave me something to think about for the next few days. So youd have to figure out the percent chance the guy gets a single, dbl, etc, figure out his ABs, normalize for pitcher and I guess defense and stadium but prob not, add(?) them together? That doesnt seem right. If I do come up with something and go against you itll be for peanuts and Ill need odds. And youll need to drop me like one more little crumb of info cuz as you can see I need some help. Think of it as penance for being kind of an ******* to me last time.


My hockey model has been kiiiillin it lately though. Its like no one knows that the marchand line is unreal or that kucherov is an alien.

Maybe we can do a baseball and hockey competition??

Looking back at my sports betting "career", its very apparent that, among other things, one thing that precipitated me doing this a ton less was when I stopped actively looking for new accounts. I got one guy who got me everything and that was unreal for a while. But when that stopped the whole thing almost did. And you really have to stay connected in the "scene." So yea, networking is huge. Id say its honestly even more important than being good at math and certainly more important than all this big data **** I see nowadays.

sounds good man. but you don't need to re-invent the wheel and do all those adjustments yourself unless you really want to. just grab some dfs projections that break out the expected number of singles, doubles, triples, HRs. then multiply out the value by the number and you got expected total bases for each guy. compare two guys. you can stick to easy cases where one is a lot more than the other or the wrong guy favored or estimate it with poisson. it's not poisson though so just be careful with that. you'll get a good feel for when it's a good bet after you do it for a while

anyone who does this for a living for 10 years deserves and has earned my respect

10 years in one of the most competitive cutthroat industries in the world you're goddamn right that is deserving of respect

classic MLB where you crush the line so bad you worry they're not gonna honor the ticket due to an obvious line error and you lose the bet in the 5th

even CHOPTALK couldn't last 10 years

rickj, ACEACE, BrianL still going strong

statistical anomalies

i still believe rickj died about 10 years ago and his neural network has become self aware and still posts. it really is next level stuff

rickj update

jjkfor20 how is the model coming? hurry so we can get rickj plays without having to subscribe.

legit want to believe this over him going full-on tout.

:-(

poogsy i'm thinking THE BAT makes the most sense for us. it breaks out all the stats we need for total bases and actually does a pretty good job with its projections. we can also use it for pitcher total K's. $200 for the season but we can expense it.

let me know when you're subbed so we can begin work on our speadsheet template for it. i'm thinking we can import updated THE BAT projections and feed that to a page that will do all the total bases calcs for us.

who here has the most competitive total bases lines and limits as well as pitcher total K's? preferably local outs. once we get our model working we can focus on getting down.

this is how you run a betting syndicate boys

....by teaming up with poogs?

crowdsource syndicate doesn't need 10 big data clones. our members bring their own unique skills and experience we use the 'wisdom of the crowds' approach applied to abilities. 10+ years of successful pro gambling experience? you're goddamn right i'll take that any day

tomorrow, I’m going to fly

youd be lucky as **** to ever get to "team up" with me or use any of my old connections or networks. So save the condescension, chief.

And Tom if youre serious, I have 2 books that take all kinds of mlb props, including total bases. I havent seen pitcher K yet. The skin I use actually completely took them down after I had at them for half a season a few years ago and theyve never been back.

I can get down more than a few hundred on each bet and some of that has to go to the agent, but there are TONS of options. I can get down something like 5k day in a day, 300 bucks at a time. Its a grind but could def be worth it if I could beat these like I beat NHL and total K's.

Maybe we can work something out?

cant* get down more than a few hundred....