Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerHero77
Break even calc: (6/11)^(1/3) = 0.817
12.5 point NFL fav MLs are about 85%. Subtract 3% for push on 1 and 2 and that gets you 82%, which is barely > 81.7%. You can figure 10.5 and 11.5 favs similarly, but they are no better.
If you can get a 1 point dog with 1-2% odds adjust that would probably be your best bet. Plus 1 point dogs come around more frequently than 12.5 favs so your EG is better.
Thanks. Thats what I came up with too; 82%.
I have a book that will sometimes line a game at -3 -130 when everyone else is at -3.5. Also lets you buy points in teasers. So theres all kind of opportunities. Ive been going through the zero on some of them which I know is generally a bad idea, but Im able to go through both 3s.
For instance, this week I could tease JAX from -7 to +3, then buy to +3.5 for only 10%. According to old push charts Im good. I wish I had a data base with newer seasons.