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Old 10-07-2017, 09:17 PM   #1376
DonJuan
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Hi not sure if this is best place to ask this. Anyway since last year I been placing at local bookies that I found through family. The offer is 30 mins before game time they would text all odds at at 1.952(-105) I think they use somewhat Vegas or bookmaker but sometime i think a little bit off. for ex. they would send batch of college football 12 pm game at 11:30 you get 30 mins to place bet close at 11:59. Once the line is text to you it doesn't change unless they text saying that specific line is change(rarely happen only twice I seen it in 1 year). I guess with just pinnacle/some other sharp line I could line grind and edge out tiny edge. However I know that market isn't always efficient and that just by doing this it not the best way. I would need somewhat to understand a bit of handicapping or looking at trend. Anyway my offer is if someone is serious can team up to place bets. I am willing to escrow w rep. if trustworthy is an issue. Obviously I handle with all the bookie. pm me if interested or free to search my post history to see if i am legit.


p.s another bookie I got offer is always at 1.909 line but they would send at 11:30 all 12 pm up to 3:30 game etc so there always a batch there 2-3 hour early and line wouldn't change.
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Old 10-08-2017, 06:00 AM   #1377
MisterRodriguez
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

What you have there is a license to print money.Personally if i had found a gold mine i wouldn´t share with anyone.
Look at Pinny Line figure out your edge,bomb half kelly(or a bigger fraction if the limits are to low for your BR) until they stop sending you text messages
Good Luck
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Old 10-08-2017, 09:06 AM   #1378
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

So far it is going well by just doing pinnacle-vig to figure out edge and doing 40-60% kelly. However one of the problem I am having is I think some time there are way too much action being lay off by books on pinnacle which cause the market to not be as efficient. I would end up bombing away on those edge. or cases where it seem there to be no edge but in reality books are holding position and there would be big edge. I guess this problem is mostly for NFL as I think college market are usually efficient. Thinking of doing this for Nba also
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Old 10-08-2017, 09:46 AM   #1379
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

You are turning this into a complex process and in my opinion you should maximize this opportunity with maximum effort and resources.Nfl is not efficient?i am not an expert in American Sports but when you have dozens of thousands as maximum bet allowed(just on Pinny)you will be more than fine in fact i built my BR betting on Challengers,Handball Champions league Etc.IME when you have a max bet available over a few K you should pound on any off number you can find.
Just don t overcomplicate DonJuan and do this alone,you don t need anyone to help you here.
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Old 10-14-2017, 05:17 AM   #1380
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I'd be interested to hear some opinions on turnover vs softer early lines. In a high volume sport like soccer you can potentially turnover your BR many many times during a week at the cost of betting closer to game time. On the other hand you can bet well in advance into softer lines but in some cases it will tie up your money for days or even the whole week.

My gut tells me that going for as much turnover as possible is better.
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Old 10-14-2017, 09:02 AM   #1381
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

your gut is right,thats the SB essence turnover as much money you can w/ positive expected return on your investment.
You will have a little more variance with that approach,but line value is line value regardless of the time before the game
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Old 10-14-2017, 12:17 PM   #1382
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

http://www.aussportsbetting.com/2010...alue-of-money/
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Old 10-18-2017, 04:08 PM   #1383
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Anybody arb NBA RSW lines? I saw some biased lines, but with the time value of money not sure if they were worth it.
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Old 10-21-2017, 04:32 PM   #1384
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I CAN REPORT THAT I am alive and well. Apologies for the silence. I've been away on R&R, and have been unable to report on the progress of the campaign as certain events have been filed as "classified." Let me just say that Peter and his team will pay dearly for their sins.

However, I now have the pleasure of announcing the news of our recently-launched offensive, Operation Dark Star. We will rain hellfire upon them for the next several months, and it will only increase in intensity once fresh recruits arrive in November.

I'm not allowed to disclose details but terms of a surrender were discussed. Foolishly, they refused to listen to reason. I believe they will come to regret that.

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Old 10-22-2017, 12:06 PM   #1385
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I'm in a pool where a Pittsburgh win (straight up), and an Eagles win on MNF (also straight up) nets me $1000. What do we think about hedging/middling options?
I've got a few hundred online to play with. I was considering an open parlay with the Bengals +4. Obviously, if Pittsburgh covers, that $100 is lost, but then I could press up with $200 on the Redskins +4.5 on Monday night, maybe even splitting the bet with some on the ML to get a better return if the Skins blow the pool for me.

Anything I'm missing?
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Old 10-22-2017, 05:08 PM   #1386
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

$1000?

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Old 10-30-2017, 10:19 AM   #1387
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Gentlemen, the days grow shorter, the weather grows colder, and the first grip of winter's freeze has tickled your hearty noses. But let not your resolve falter, for the enemy is weak! Peter has become old and fat; ravaged by the senility so common in men who have for so long not met a true challenge, he can hardly keep track of what week it is, much less manage his lines. But worry not, dear Peter, for your want of a proper challenge will be met! We are here, and we have turned our guns on you!

He continues to survive only by continually rolling out ever more elaborate schemes to fraudulently delay withdrawals and intimidate the enemy with his war crimes. But such pathetic, subterranean tricks will only hold for so long. He is on his last gasp. We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotting structure will come crashing down.
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Old 11-01-2017, 11:56 AM   #1388
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Anyone know what the standard odds in Vegas are on a 4 team 7 point football teaser?

Thanks
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Old 11-02-2017, 10:07 AM   #1389
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I've been away from Vegas for a while. Someone can answer with more recent info. But it used to be +200 with some places only being +180. I have no recent info.
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:18 PM   #1390
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

noob question but does anyone else find it difficult to keep track of all their bets and do proper bet sizing when they place like 50+ bets a day?
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Old 11-04-2017, 12:28 PM   #1391
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr View Post
noob question but does anyone else find it difficult to keep track of all their bets and do proper bet sizing when they place like 50+ bets a day?
For sure. It's very Poogsian of me, but I just keep a back of the envelope tally and err on the side of under betting. Glhf staking optimally when you're betting every possible side/total/derivative on the board at varying prices. The opp cost of being a nit is large.
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Old 11-04-2017, 08:49 PM   #1392
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

That is optimal. The calc is computationally impossible. And practically irrelevant.
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Old 11-05-2017, 08:55 PM   #1393
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by PropPlayer View Post
I've been away from Vegas for a while. Someone can answer with more recent info. But it used to be +200 with some places only being +180. I have no recent info.
thanks a lot
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Old 11-19-2017, 12:19 PM   #1394
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)





As we approached the battlefield, the stench of death overtook everything. Everywhere you looked you saw them -- ghosts from all over the world, lying here to die, scattered in all positions. They were mostly new recruits; young blacks, hardly trained and now forced out onto the field. All they wanted was to play a little basketball and receive inflated marks for sham courses, perhaps the odd one night stand with a sorority girl with an absentee father. And now here they were, in their paper thin uniforms, completely unprepared for winter; they had never expected to be in such northern zones. I cannot say they were very good soldiers, but they had strength in numbers. There are so many of them that they make believe it is some kind of suicidal tournament, and that those that live will go on to the next round. There were so many of them! I pitied them. Of course there were men of all sorts brought here to fight, as the fighting swelled from all corners, blacks, whites, mostly Americans, of course, but even the occasional Swedish millionaire had been brought into the effort. How bizarre that there should be so many events in a single day!


One hardly muttered a word, daring not to speak of what was certainly on everyone's mind, only nervous glances and compulsive reloading of one's bet page. Then, at around 16:30, the first shells boomed and hissed and rose into the sky. Thousands upon thousands were wagered, but I can tell you, it was nothing for me. Some of the lesser experienced men shook with fright, I even saw one soldier enter the wrong bet amount, not even maxing his wager. I had the overwhelming desire to shoot him dead for cowardice, before another general reminded me that he was, after all, one of our own.

As I stood in the centre of it all, seeing the bullets and shrapnel and bombs whizz by all around me, explosions and screams ringing in my ears, I realised that something was missing. The old familiar weekly excitement, the winter chill, the sound of the leaves cracking under my boots, the rush of man hunting man, Africans in the end zone dancing, fists furiously pumping, the echoes from the charge, the calls of "Feed them, baby, they're asking for it!"

I looked inside myself, and saw that there was nothing. Was it shell-shock? But, no, it could not be. I did not even feel fear. I was clear of mind. Then, suddenly, I knew. Of course I had heard about it from of the more experienced soldiers on the counsel of chatroom millionaires. Some referred to the phenomenon as #maxedandrelaxed. And as I stood above the battlefield, watching the carnage all around me, hundreds of events and thousands of dollars being thrown every which way, I, for the first time, knew what it truly meant. I was the one leading this attack, and yet, at the same time, I was simply not there. I was maxed and relaxed. After several hours of fighting, the heat rose from the movement of so many men, so many moving parts, hot cannons and machine guns and blood, blood! everywhere. And yet all I could do was ponder my new epiphany. Maxed, and relaxed.

Some day perhaps I will have a wife. Maybe she will ask me, what was it like at the front? How did you handle the stress of managing such funds? And what will I say? How could I ever be able to explain to her? Perhaps she will see something, shiny and dangly, perhaps costing just $1 or $2,000, and she will covet it, and how will I deny it to her? How will I tell her no, when I know that I have, at another point, watched vacantly, only perfunctorily performing my duties, guiding the funds into the right accounts, making sure they were wagered on the appropriate events, marking the wins, the losses, requesting the necessary withdrawals, but not truly being there. Even then, in a future where human life may perhaps mean little, with the rise of machines, perhaps hundreds of thousands of lives will not mean then what it means today, but still, I do not think she will simply bat at eye at what I have experienced, at the horrors I have seen, not at the numbers I am dealing with. How will I tell her that inside I felt nothing, on this day?

I do not know. And today, another large battle. I must go now, my men await me; the attack is set to take place soon. For some of my unfortunate men, today, it shall be their final round of the tournament.
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Old 11-21-2017, 01:07 AM   #1395
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

When I look at an NFL line where the home team is a dog, pk or <3 favorite, I like to put it in the perspective of what that line would be if the location were switched. However, I'm starting to wonder if my conversion is wrong for medium/big home dogs.

I calculated my table of conversions by looking at the % value of each point and making the swing match the % swing when going from -3 to +3. With that method, I compute:

PK at home converts to +5 on the road.
...
+3 home = +7.5(extra charge) on the road.
...
+6.5 home = 14 road
+7 home = 15.5 road
+7.5 home = 17 road
...
+10 home = +20 road

But if that's all true, then there's a surprisingly high number of crazy soft lines. The Pinnacle closing lines seem to suggest that, for instance, +10 converts to substantially less than 20.

So is my method flawed? If so, what are the real conversions?
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Old 11-21-2017, 01:30 PM   #1396
TomG
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

the old idea that nfl hfa is worth "bout tree points" is just a very rough estimate. it shouldn't be used for anything precise.

work in terms of win%, not point spread.

figure out the home teams neutral field win%. then adjust win% to account for hfa. convert that win% to a point spread using historical outcomes. ez game.
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Old 11-26-2017, 06:17 PM   #1397
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

If an nfl game on pinny is listed at 13.5, and i can get 14, is this always going to be +ev?

What about half a point on a total?
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Old 11-27-2017, 08:58 AM   #1398
HolidayInTheSun
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)



Easy to make money when you prey on the weakest in the population.

We are coming for you, Denise.
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Old 11-27-2017, 08:11 PM   #1399
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
If an nfl game on pinny is listed at 13.5, and i can get 14, is this always going to be +ev?

What about half a point on a total?
Too broad of a question to answer. Depends on juice. And points in NFL are not all the same; IE moving from 3 to 3.5 is a bigger move than moving from 10.5 to 12, even though its only a half point vs 1.5 points.

Totals are different. Only way to know for sure is buy/make a push chart using past scores.

Actually while on the subject, I would be interested in buying one thats up to date.
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Old 11-28-2017, 01:49 PM   #1400
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

5k for accurate scores/lines from last 5 years NFL. lmk
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