My Betfair account was locked a couple of years ago and I've never got round to phoning them up to unblock it. It's probably for the best...

i'm just here for the wreckages.

I don't think we do personal blogs in this forum bro, I think there is a footy thread you could tail and post plays/results there. GL though.

Haha you massive degen. You're like a blue version of me.

Rekt rekt rekt rekt rekt

It's fine I'm sure nobody will mind bro!

3pm double was a bust, frantically got on +2.5 goals in Sweden vs Belarus at like 2.3 (!!!!!!!) while on the golf course with 3% battery left, £55ish on it to give us a small profit so far today (4-0 Svvvvvvvveden!). Gone for +2.5 goals in Bulgaria vs Holland tonight, that's 1.79. Not a great price but it'll do.

Like I say my approach/updates etc will be much more structured as of next weekend, but we're doing ok while rushing it still

You should decide what percentage of your bankroll to place on an individual bet depending on the probability of the different outcomes and what you think your edge is. It's fairly straightforward to calculate:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

Half the Kelly bet is considered to be a good rule of thumb because it is robust to some errors in your estimate of your edge or the true probability.

This supports your view that you should be willing to bet more with a better edge, but it is still dependent on the probability of the even happening.

oh boy...

/you should really read the guidelines in the sticky...

it says in the Sports Betting FAQ:
also in the Sports Betting Forum Rules:

REKT

We do mind. Nobody cares about your imaginary picks, see above. And this is not your personal blog. Post in the appropriate thread or start a blog elsewhere.

He opened a thread but mods transfered everything here.

Yup, started a thread but mods merged everything. Speaking to them now to see if this is the best place for a thread or if I should have it elsewhere.

Got Scotland at 2.3 tonight, delighted with that! 10% too

Also

https://gyazo.com/7f7f9ea190d587403dafc41ad35c04aa

https://gyazo.com/7e0661beb3dad4ef7a4c90ffdf18a4bb

Weird why everyone thinks I'd make up winning £50 here and there, but hey ho. Will keep you all posted about whether I restart a blog here or elsewhere!

Professional poker players with a big ego makes a complete ass of himself taking a shot at sports betting. Crazy, that's never happened before.

Off-Topic question but figured you would be qualified due to your holiday. Have you ran into skin cancer? What would you suggest one would do to lower their chances at getting skin cancer due to all of the sun exposure?

Wear sunscreen.

If I could offer you only one tip for the future, sunscreen would be it. The long-term benefits of sunscreen have been proved by scientists, whereas the rest of my advice has no basis more reliable than my own meandering experience.

Not knowing much on this issue outside of the conventional advice, I happened upon a televised interview (below) that forms newfound doubt in my mind around the conventional message.

The following challenge was put to a representative of the NZ Cancer Society (an organisation that promote and market sunscreen products):

"Name one study that proves sunscreen actually reduces the incidence of melonoma (a type of skin cancer)"

Her answer- at 6 minutes 4 seconds- was pretty unconvincing.



Could I be so bold as to throw the question at you?

Accept certain alible truths: prices will rise, politicians will philander, you too will get old and when you do, you'll fanaticise that when you were young, prices were reasonable, politicians were noble and children respected their elders.
Respect your elders.
Don't expect anyone else to support you.
Maybe you have a trust fund, maybe you'll have a wealthy spouse but you'll never know when either one will run out.
Don't mess too much with your hair or by the time you're forty, it will look eighty-five.
Be careful whose advice you buy, but be patient with those who supply it.
Advice is a form of nostalgia.
Dispensing it is a way of wishing the past from the disposal, wiping it off, painting over the ugly parts and recycling for more than it's worth.
But trust him on the sunscreen.

wicked burn GazzyB123

Luckily, this only counts 2p2 and not all the other places I've posted. It truly is pathetic and something I've cut way back on doing. While a lot of posts have been utter rubbish, a decent enough portion have been learning costs so I'm within a half decade of retirement despite some expensive health hiccups for myself and family. May you be so lucky as to learn. My advice is to stop posting and read, read, read, and read some more.

looks like betstars and Blacktype are using the same lol stupid odd compiler. They both had Richy Werenski (who?) at 1/12 to win the Shell Houston golf and favoured players at doubled odds eg speith 18/1 stenson 40-1 rahm 33-1.

Interesting from the basis that the compiler has utterly no clue what he is doing and after the initial gross error with Werenski, clearly just kept lengthening players to get to the required over-round.

Every time go collect winnings they say it a loser

Today a had hanicap -9 and send it lost because then never lost my -9 rugby league

4 staff in shop saying lost god knows how many on phone kept saying it lost

Try explain that my teams won by ten points I win they looked at me like I was stupid and saying no your team never won my 9 points so I lost

Not a joke when I say nearly every time get price over phone they class it at loss

Imagine punters who handed in slip asking if it a winner and being told no when it is

No idea what most sports are and give up trying get price on anything as they have no understanding of any sports apart from football or horses. This is same in every bookies bar odd staff member who knows his s hi t.

If you're actually interested in the subject, you should look at a lot of the science and think about the why it doesn't occur (basically the second order effects counteract the first order).

Bike helmets exhibit a similar problem. Basically people engage in compensatory risk taking behavior that totally negates the benefits of the recommendation on a population level. That doesn't mean that astute personal usage should be neglected. (IE why gun control advocates don't think we should disarm the military and police)

Free Money

When you lose half your bankroll in 1 bet you will chase and lose the other half.

Thus the entire bankroll management thing.

This isn't any different than poker, it's the exact same concept.

Variance is ****ing brutal. I took a shot with 20u yesterday, won 10u and lost 10u (betting to win 1u) the same night.
Cool story i know, but BRM should be tattooed to every gamblers forehead.

They were gonna make me a chatroom millionaire for this, and I wasn't even in their ****in' army anymore.