I normally hang at primm valley

Hey whats up guys I read a thread on another board and was curious if you thought these numbers were legit. This is long and pretty noobish so I apologize, If I'm posting anything I shouldn't be please just erase and lemme know thanks


I've been a long time donk sports bettor, some of you may remember I posted picks for a little while here and lost like 10k and just got flamed relentlessly but its all good cuz I totally deserved it lol I'm not one of those tards who comes on forums and acts like he's god greatest gift to the world in sports betting, I realize now the way I bet (basically just "capping") is -EV and that basically all I've been doing is making losing bets my whole life even when they win. My point is although I admittedly am a sports betting donk I don't by any chance pretend I'm Billy Walters like some guys do, which honestly I think annoys you guys more than just me flaming my money away lol. Hope you guys understand what I'm getting at.

So anyways, my dumb ass is finally getting the drift on that I need to beat the closing line and I have a local who's lines in NBA are often off by 1/2 to 2 points (or more). Basically he comes out with a line about noon and just doesn't change it unless something crazy happens so there are some serious errors a lot of times. The guy is small time 300/max bet (he'll let me go 500 here and there) and honestly if I were to win like 5k I think he'd cut me off but still that's 5k I could get and I'd like to actual take advantage of it instead of just being the fool. So anyways I started looking around at how big of a difference a half point, full point, 2 points ect make and I stumbled across this dudes post on another board and was curious if you thought these numbers were legit, or just covers hogwash.


So this guy says his computer or whatever tracked every line move in the NBA the last 14 years. These results are if you got the opening number in favor of every line move. So if the line opened at -5 and ended at -6.5 you got -5. Obviously impossible but it was showing the value of beating the line. Anyways, here are his numbers for each 1/2 point and your record

Line movement | Bets won | Bets lost | Ties | Win %
----------|--------|---------|---------|---------
0.5 | 1669 | 1625 | 48 | 50.7%
1 | 1215 | 1087 | 35 | 52.8%
1.5 | 736 | 574 | 35 | 56.2%
2 | 358 | 305 | 18 | 54.0%
2.5 | 265 | 172 | 8 | 60.6%
3 | 143 | 106 | 3 | 57.4%
3.5 | 68 | 45 | 3 | 60.2%
4 | 50 | 40 | 1 | 55.6%
4.5 | 34 | 20 | 0 | 63.0%
5 | 18 | 14 | 0 | 56.3%
5.5 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 73.3%
6 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 80.0%
6.5 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 71.4%
7 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 55.6%
7.5 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 85.7%
8+ | 33 | 4 | 1 | 89.2%
TOTAL | 4633 | 4008 | 153 | 53.6%



So as you can see once youre at 1 point youre already beating even a -110 line. Do you think these numbers are legit?



Sorry for the novel and all the dumb questions, thanks for any replies

lol bookies

i can't believe sharky's sports was over 4 years ago now

where has the time gone

Those numbers look fine, 1 point moves probably ran a little bad tbh. If you can get an extra point on NBA closers, you will win. Just make sure you aren't laying -8 -110 and Pinnacle has -9 +103 or whatever.

11th March 2017

Word down from HQ is that the enemy can no longer withstand the pummeling we have been giving them. Surely we thought that we could not win, only a couple short weeks ago, as we had retreated and retreated since the New Year. But now we have fought with a valour I have never seen before, not from our men, or any men for that matter. We broke through on Wednesday, and have routed them for the past two days, day and night. Nobody knows for sure what is going on, as it's all happened so fast, but I can't see how they can take this much longer. There are rumours that terms are being drawn up for a surrender. Oh God, how I hope this war shall be over soon!

Any input on what repeated small line movements mean? Something like this for example where every minute or so the line is going back and forth by a relatively insignificant penny:
03/14 07:25 AM +½ +113 -½ -133
03/14 07:24 AM +½ +112 -½ -132
03/14 07:23 AM +½ +113 -½ -133
03/14 07:22 AM +½ +112 -½ -132
03/14 07:21 AM +½ +113 -½ -133
03/14 07:20 AM +½ +112 -½ -132
03/14 07:20 AM +½ +113 -½ -133
03/14 07:19 AM +½ +112 -½ -132
03/14 07:18 AM +½ +113 -½ -133
03/14 07:17 AM +½ +112 -½ -132
03/14 07:16 AM +½ +113 -½ -133
03/14 07:16 AM +½ +127 -½ -147
03/14 07:14 AM +½ +112 -½ -132
03/14 07:12 AM +½ +127 -½ -147
03/14 07:12 AM +½ +112 -½ -132
03/14 07:11 AM +½ +127 -½ -147
03/14 07:11 AM +½ +113 -½ -133
03/14 07:09 AM +½ +127 -½ -147
03/14 07:08 AM +½ +113 -½ -133
03/14 07:08 AM +½ +127 -½ -147
03/14 07:07 AM +½ +113 -½ -133

Two people with a different opinion.

Two people betting identical similar amounts back and forth lol

Think a bit deeper.

I meant Stateline, NV (the place outside Heavenly)... LOL @ Primm

If you're referring to me, yes exactly. I was feeding the troll. Any insight you're willing to discuss? Is the book trying to get a player to bite? i.e. book identifies player waiting in the wings who hammers max every time line is at +113

sup mags

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S20YVksyplQ

two months ago, i watched goon for the first time based on mags recommendation from 5 years prior. thought of him the whole time. rip

Does anyone still see St. Mary's +6 at Bovada? F*ng dual lines.

hey, how much are basketball ah points or totals points worth.
i understand they arent same for different numbers, but is there any public data?
ty

if only there was a FAQ and google

Hi friends,

I have kept a long and interesting poker PGC over the past few years, and I am now dabbling in some sports betting, and want to document it, but keep it seperate from my poker blog. Thus, a new blog is born!

Sooo in September I deposited £1,000 into Betfair. I placed 5% of my bankroll on any given bet, upping it occasionally to 10% if I felt there was a particular bet that was just too good. I had £2,200 after around a month, but cashed it out as I hit a very rough patch playing poker, as I wanted to focus on my main source of income.

Fast forward to a few days ago, and we're back at it with £1,000. I got off to a tough start over the last few days, but a bit of heat today has put us back into profit. My bets so far have been...

18 Mar - Stoke vs Chelsea - Chelsea 90 mins - £50 @ 1.71 - WIN
18 Mar - Leeds vs Brighton - +2.5 goals - £56.60 @ 2.3 - LOSE
22 Mar - Germany vs England, Scotland vs Canada - Germany & Scotland 90 mins - £97.71 @ 2.3 - LOSE
24 Mar - Uruguay vs Brazil - +2.5 goals - £43.97 @ 2.06 - WIN
24 Mar - Uruguay vs Brazil - +3.5 goals - £46.18 @ 1.5 - WIN
24 Mar - Georgia vs Serbia - Serbia 90 mins - £94.56 @ 1.64 - WIN
24 Mar - Italy vs Albania, Croatia vs Ukraine - Italy & Croatia 90 mins - £50.15 @ 1.92 - WIN

Balance sitting pretty at £1,051.50. Tonight's 2 games are Mexico vs Costa Rica & USA vs Honduras. I'm gonna go with Mexico & USA double, £52.57 @ 2.4!

Hopefully y'all enjoy the ride, feel free to jump in and offer advice/critique my system, but as ever keep it constructive!

past posting is awesome

gfy

What site do you use? Betfair? Bet365?

Find some horse racing people to follow, more money to make in horse racing than football.

10% of your bankroll on any one play is too much if you plan to do this seriously. Should never be more than 3%

A quick Google suggests your insinuating that I am posting fake results after the game to boast about my winnings of £50. Please rest assured I am not doing that, that would be very very sad



Betfair, it allows everyone to "act as the bookie" which gives me more flexibility.

A friend of mine does very well with the horses, but I have no interest in them unfortunately. Think it's better to stick with footie!

Disagree; if I see something that's exceptional value I'm more than happy to double the bet. Perhaps if we make it to the big bucks we will use a smaller percentage, but for now I'm happy to take the odd risk.

Last night's double was a success, taking us up to £1,150ish. There's a lot of football on today, but I'm travelling back to Scotland/golfing, so it's all going to be a bit rushed. Really looking forward to international week being over and I can get on with this properly.

First bet of the day is Oldham vs Sheffield Utd, Bury vs Fleetwood - Sheffield Utd & Fleetwood double - £55 @ 4.2 (I placed the bet and updated this thread on my phone so exact odds and exact bet are out slightly, but that's roughly what it is).

I also normally place single bets, and never ever at odds this high, but Fleetwood are 3rd in the league, Bury are 19th (I think), they are a great price. Hopefully we get Saturday off to a good start, lots of International games tonight!