This is what I was referring to.

Congrats Thremp, you got to use the word dichotomy this week

On a serious note, what are we supposed to talk about in this thread to better our bankroll? Give us one example.

dude are you blind, he already gave you several examples like betting Kelly for one SMH!

Then don't bet on poker too. idiot

I think we all understand that 'beat the sharpest book's closing line' is generally good advice. What the discussion in the thread about is the handicapping side of things. Yes, if you beat all the closers you'll profit. Hell, that's most of what I do, MMA is one of the only sports where I try to use intuition to actually set my own lines, and i'm only about breakeven as an MMA bettor (had a slight losing 2016 and a slight winning 2014-5 in MMA specifically), whereas the bets I make on other sports exploiting soft book lines do show profit because yes, beating the closing line is generally how you make money.

Due to lowish max bets MMA does have more inaccurate lines than most sports though I think, a single 50k play from some high roller can move the line a whole bunch compared to most major sports

congratulations! you've been nominated for post of the year 2017

I think the past few posts basically summarize the view shared by the chatroom millionaires.

Best of luck with your breakeven betting in the years to come.

I've stopped posting on the rest of the sports betting forum for you and the millionaires club and have no intention of posting outside of this thread, the least you can do is leave this thread alone, you have no interest in MMA as far as I know and I have no interest in ever interacting with you in any way.

This is not your personal #safespace.

Deal with it.

ETA: Since you've decided to cross the barrier on addressing me a third time (kinda weird how you keep initiating conversation). I should note that you took time to post in LC and ATF about my recent banning. So what you just claimed would be an outright lie and fabrication. Given your track record on honesty and the false criminal accusations you've thrown at me, I guess this is what we can expect.

lol that you're simultaneously crying safe spaces and falsely alleging I made 'criminal accusations' against you. You clearly made a reference to my post in post #40567 prior to me addressing you at all and I would very happily have never addressed you in any way if you hadn't decided to come into this thread, mock my post and brag about being a millionaire. By all means deny that you came into this thread to throw roundabout insults towards my posts and bait me into some sort of back and forth exchange, but we both know that's why you're posting in this thread as you've never shown any interest in MMA or MMA betting. It is absolutely no secret that I strongly dislike you and your whole forum gimmick probably more than any other person I have never met in real life. It's clearly no secret you feel the same way about me. It's also clear you couldn't care less about MMA and you're just here to derail the thread by insulting random regular posters here like Nick Diaz and hoping for drama.

So here are some facts.

I factually accused you of following me off 2p2 to direct abuse to me, which you did on Twitter a bit over a year ago. I accused you of making slanderous accusations against me on twoplustwo which is a fact (eg. claiming I was fraudulently soliciting funds from others on twoplustwo, which is a lie, which the mods warned you to refrain from doing in the future).

I accused you of making abusing posts directed towards both me and other posters which you have been banned for multiple times, this is a fact.

Literally the only complaint that you have ever made about me that has any validity is that I kept records inaccurately in an esports thread not encouraging anyone to tail me or anything from years ago and due to my unfamiliarity at the time with how to keep records when adding additional bets on after an initial bet. I had clearly posted the method I was using in the thread and happily disavowed the record afterwards as worthless. Worth noting the discrepancy was small enough my picks in the thread would have been in the black regardless and you acted like this was some giant conspiracy that I wanted to 'go tout' and profit from my picks or scam people somehow when at no point was this remotely close to a thing and I was posting and discussing esports picks with other enthusiasts purely for entertainment. You then followed me from thread to thread abusing me and calling me a scammer for months.

I posted that am in favour of you being banned from twoplustwo for repeatedly breaching the rules when the mods gave you a temp ban (because of someone else's complaint not mine, and again you were abusing this person and got tempbanned because of that, not because of me) and I stand by the opinion that twoplustwo would be better off without you due to your abusive behaviour towards other posters over a period of years and multiple accounts. Some others disagreed, and you're welcome to interact with them in other threads, or in this thread if you have anything useful to contribute other than calling everyone else poor/bad at betting which is basically your gimmick or telling people stuff like 'your math is wrong' without posting the right answer and posting obvious info that everyone here already knows like 'bet kelly' 'beat the closing line' and 'it can be correct to bet on anything at the right price'. Others value your input, by all means go interact with them instead of with me and coming here to this thread to tell us we're all wasting our time is just trolling. Some guys like Jim tracked and posted all of their bets last year and profited five figures with a very low unit size. His posts are valuable. Some people post detailed breakdowns as to why they think a fighters price is good/bad. Those posts are also valuable. I like to think some of mine are enjoyed by other readers. I even place bets for some of the posters here on books they can't access, just because this thread is like a community and we enjoy talking about betting on MMA together. I've even made a couple of real life friends that I originally interacted with in the thread. I'm sure others have as well. Feel free to contribute with useful posts in the thread and I won't have a problem with it at all.

I stopped posting in the remainder of the sports betting forum largely to avoid interacting with you, and because some posters value your input in the SB forum and I acknowledge that if all of your claims are true you are a more successful sports bettor than I am, so respectfully I have stepped away from all of the other threads to allow you to interact with the people that value your input. Nobody wants to read another pointless back and forth set of insults between us due to your need to get the last word in along with a jab at me. So go ahead, make one more jab and then leave the thread unless you want to contribute on topic conversation.

I'll start with the 'getting the thread back on topic'.

Who do we think gasses first between Lauzon and Held? Both guys start very strong so I think it's fairly likely to come down to who starts to fade in Round 2. Lauzon's had cardio issues in the past so if Held gets him down in r1 that could be a factor, but Held gassed in r2 against Sanchez in his last fight and was done at that point. I'm torn on this fight and can't pick, logically I want to go with Held as a dog in a fight that should be a pick'em but it's tough to after his last performance. Someone talk me into/out of betting on Held.

The other spot i'm considering is Oleinik as a small fav over Pesta, the thing that's making me hold back on that one is that Pesta is young and should be improving and Oleinik is old and could fall off a cliff at any time performance wise. Pesta has no good wins and is coming off being finished twice though, and Oleinik is a machine on the ground. I can't recall what Pesta's TDD is like though and need to rewatch his UFC fights so far to figure out what the stylistic matchup is like for Oleinik first.

I thought they were the most liquid market with the best prices out there according to a 2p2 post from the guy who bought them

They did refund the amount in question. And have assured me that they are taking every effort to provide a transparent process where additional funds are not magically drawn from your account.

#teamthremp FTW!. it shocks me how bad some of my friends who casually bet are at sports/poker but all I need to do is visit here once in a while to remind myself the majority of ppl that dedicate time to to try and beat sports/poker suck just as much.

to anyone itt or forum disagreeing w Mihkel, I too was once a brokeish breakeven bettor like you guys but instead of hating on the few knowledgeable guys on here, I embraced and accepted their advice and it has led me to the legit millionaire club instead of the fake chatroom one.

BOL all, you gon need it.

what a whole bunch of bs here. I made quite alot of money betting in MMA the last year also thanks to some nice advice here by some posters. It might have been just pure luck and I havd idea what im doing but whatever. I value the input of some here.

Hilarious in person and doubly so at the ballet.

Triply when the cashier/mgr asks if he's a runner...

90% of poker players are losers at the game, if you are talking about poker players in general, then fine. But that's not what we are talking about. Pretty sure that most poker players on this forum are more than just your everyday casual poker player. They have a far better grasp on BRM and EV etc than the average punter. Frankly you are just talking out of your ass.

Just stop already! You know nobody because nobody wants to know you, period!

For what its worth I did make a comfortable living betting last year just beating closers on soft aussie books, granted thats not a lot compared to some of the top guys who post on 2p2 (Iowa and the millionaires club etc) and the bulk of that volume is stuff like NRL/AFL/Super Union. That doesn't mean I know anything useful about handicapping those sports though, just that 'oh look this price would be an arb against the sharp books with high limits so its probably off market so I should hit it'. The guys who build their own models and cris Pinny/Cris/Matchbook etc are the ones making the real money and i'm effectively just leeching their info chasing steam. I've learned a bunch

I enjoy the challenge of trying to handicap MMA betting even though it hasn't resulted in significant profit for me personally to date, it does give me enjoyable sweats on a sport where I watch basically every event and it definitely is very beatable for the sharpest guys out there, some of whom post here and do well.

Does a bookmaker's line move to a) what they believe is the true line, or b) a balanced line (i.e. a line where they make money on both outcomes). Is the answer different in theory and practice?

money moves lines

I was very happy to read this post dude. My cousin 's best friend just got out jail and his options are so limited.

I personally love the contributions and overall jabbin going on in this part of the forum. We are all big boys and no need to ever ban anyone.

I've been perplexed by something recently. If one is unable to utilize their reasoning/modeling/etc to win, how can their analysis ever be good? It seems almost tautological that the quality of the picks/analysis would be in direct correlation to the EV it holds. (Obv Dr Bob/etc have given away a ton with their analysis because they are dumb.)

I could see it as entertaining or fun or whatever. But I find it kinda silly to assert that analysis is useful in a market that is as soft as MMA (ignoring the time value of money) where winning is pretty trivial.

Can someone explain how this could be possible?

This seems like a lie since I'm from Australia and Australian bookies close/ban accounts after 1-3 bets lol. The fact you can keep betting using aus bookies is a testament to your skill.

Can you not see how this analysis is ******ed?

You say the same **** every bro does at the bar...useless drivel

Just wondering who the best sports bettors are?

Iowa! is.