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Old 01-05-2017, 09:49 PM   #951
Poogs
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

No obviously I know how, just A) I dont think that would even be the best way and B) id have to do it manually. I dont know of a way to highlight only a select column from a web site. If I could that Id just put the list into excel and do it that way.

The twitter thing seems like a better approach. I do kind of do that but it just seems so subjective, nor sure if there was some standard way of doing it or whatever.
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Old 01-05-2017, 10:09 PM   #952
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Re: MMA Thread

lvr is a can
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Old 01-05-2017, 10:50 PM   #953
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

it's more of an art than a science. historical data gives you a general idea of how coaches handle minutes but you really have to manually adjust for each game. follow the league. watch for injuries, coaches comments, adjusted starting lineups. for example if there's just one PG suiting up you know he's going to play heavy minutes. make sure all your guys sum to ~240.

want to do a nba props h2h competition?
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Old 01-06-2017, 01:09 AM   #954
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

NBA has lots of "situations" that you can categorize too, like back to backs, days off, rest days, and etc that will factor in too. someone coming off two days rest at home against a strong opponent will be in longer than someone who is playing a second road game against a bunch of schmucks. that's one of the more important aspects, more so than team vs team matchups or whatever else. coaches these days are really into the whole rest/player management thing right now more than ever before that i can remember.

using median is the best way to get a basic number and adjust from there i reckon
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Old 01-06-2017, 12:24 PM   #955
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

If we're just gonna manually adjust everything (IE make things up), why bother using data?
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Old 01-06-2017, 01:09 PM   #956
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

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Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
If we're just gonna manually adjust everything (IE make things up), why bother using data?
When you haven't yet learned to cut and paste, you probably aren't ready for anything other than making **** up.
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Old 01-06-2017, 03:29 PM   #957
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I asked this in a thread yesterday but had no success. I also have previously asked this on reddit but no one was really able to answer my question.

Hi this is my first post here and I was wondering if anyone could help me get a few things figured out. From my time spent looking into NJ sports betting laws and regulations it seems a bit murky to me. My understanding at this point is online sports betting is currently legal in NJ and the age requirement is 21.

What would happen if someone participated in online sports betting under that age? I haven't been able to find any real information on this, all consequences I have been able to find are for gambling in an actual casino underage. Is there any actual way the state would find out? Any insight would be greatly appreciated, thank you.
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Old 01-06-2017, 03:53 PM   #958
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

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Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
If we're just gonna manually adjust everything (IE make things up), why bother using data?
if the data suggest that, for example, d'antoni is going to rest harden down the stretch if the game isn't close coming off a road game, and you adjust for that, that's not what i'd call "making things up." it seems like you're just doing that thing do where they intentionally misinterpret what someone said to try to lower them.
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Old 01-06-2017, 04:38 PM   #959
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

No that is a perfect example of just making **** up.
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Old 01-06-2017, 04:55 PM   #960
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I am shocked to discover that Matchbook has no idea what they are doing with their commission calcs and somehow have taken money from my account putting me in the negative.

Solid book.
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Old 01-06-2017, 04:59 PM   #961
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

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Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
If we're just gonna manually adjust everything (IE make things up), why bother using data?
thats sort of my question/point. There must be a way to quantify without adding in your own fudge factor, which is what Im doing and not doing a great job at.

edit: wow I didnt know you can just copy and paste a whole page into excel and it formats it perfectly. Well now I have the median at least.
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Old 01-06-2017, 07:44 PM   #962
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

And think back to when you didn't even know how to right click. I'd expect you to become to prop king of of the Americas with this new power.
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Old 01-07-2017, 08:11 AM   #963
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Re: MMA Thread

I kind of understand where lvr is coming from but assuming most people on this forum are from america it would be pretty hard to understand how the market work if they can't open a pinnacle account. Most of the line you guys post has a lot of vig in it. You can make a lot of money just by line shopping. Also unless you make thousands of trade and have a way to track vs pinnacle closing line you probably are a bit biases in your handicapping and you probably could be winning due to variance.

p.s pretty tough read but I would challenge anyone that take sport trading serious to read. https://www.amazon.com/Squares-Sharp...res+and+sharps

Last edited by DonJuan; 01-07-2017 at 08:17 AM.
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Old 01-07-2017, 12:56 PM   #964
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Re: MMA Thread

Not sure if Pinnacle closing line has been shown to be efficient for mma.
Would love to see some data on it.

Quite a few guys on here are pretty sharp in regards to betting taking into account variance,vig,closing lines.

I guess this Ivr dude has maybe followed some bets on here lost and feels the need to vent.

This is the only thread I read in the sports betting forum because its actually pretty good and not full of ego maniacs trying to one up each other.
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Old 01-08-2017, 04:27 AM   #965
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

why have none of y'all started your own sportsbook?
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Old 01-08-2017, 12:49 PM   #966
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

I tried it. Got pretty big for a while. It absolutely sucks, Ill never do it again and youd be better off working a regular job.
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Old 01-08-2017, 12:50 PM   #967
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMario7 View Post
We (people in this forum) are also poker players too and we are all well aware as poker players how to spot value! This essential tool can be used across a broad spectrum of sports and games.
This is most likely the saddest part of it all

The fact that people in this thread are poker players but are oblivious to the most basic concepts in betting
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Old 01-08-2017, 01:26 PM   #968
Mihkel05
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Re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Because the skill set for winning and running a sportsbook are totally different. They are worthwhile businesses and pretty easy to start. I have several friends who have started books. Is what it is tho.
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Old 01-08-2017, 05:54 PM   #969
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Re: MMA Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr View Post
This is most likely the saddest part of it all

The fact that people in this thread are poker players but are oblivious to the most basic concepts in betting
Dude I have reported you, sorry but start talking MMA betting in this thread or respectfully go f your mother.

Sincerely,

Nick Diaz
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Old 01-08-2017, 07:07 PM   #970
Mihkel05
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Re: MMA Thread

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Originally Posted by romaleo1 View Post
i think what he means is ain't none of y'all making money so what the hell y'all doin'
Accurate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMario7 View Post
We (people in this forum) are also poker players too and we are all well aware as poker players how to spot value! This essential tool can be used across a broad spectrum of sports and games.
Most poker players are dreadful at math and the concepts behind +EV and bankroll management. By dreadful, I mean they are actively worse than someone who has spent under 5 minutes getting coached by someone knowledgeable on the subject.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DonJuan View Post
I kind of understand where lvr is coming from but assuming most people on this forum are from america it would be pretty hard to understand how the market work if they can't open a pinnacle account. Most of the line you guys post has a lot of vig in it. You can make a lot of money just by line shopping. Also unless you make thousands of trade and have a way to track vs pinnacle closing line you probably are a bit biases in your handicapping and you probably could be winning due to variance.

p.s pretty tough read but I would challenge anyone that take sport trading serious to read. https://www.amazon.com/Squares-Sharp...res+and+sharps
Thanks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RB87 View Post
Not sure if Pinnacle closing line has been shown to be efficient for mma.
Would love to see some data on it.

Quite a few guys on here are pretty sharp in regards to betting taking into account variance,vig,closing lines.

I guess this Ivr dude has maybe followed some bets on here lost and feels the need to vent.

This is the only thread I read in the sports betting forum because its actually pretty good and not full of ego maniacs trying to one up each other.
How would you possible have data shown that it is efficient? I'm not sure you understand what you're asking much less what "data" you could see to show this. The question is poorly formed.

Also, the reason you probably like it is because its more of an SE/BSP thread. Probably have the same level of intellectual discussion that the average water cooler talk has. It is just kinda the nature of what attracts people to the thread. MMA has somewhat small limits (NHL sized), a lack of data, and infrequent events. Hence why there are few professionals who actively pursue it. Weirdly, most people in this thread focus on the popular events despite being no where near the limits for the smaller events where they might likely have an edge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nick Diaz View Post
Dude I have reported you, sorry but start talking MMA betting in this thread or respectfully go f your mother.

Sincerely,

Nick Diaz
He is talking about betting. Stop trying to police the forum with threats. There are moderators that serve that purpose.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr View Post
This is most likely the saddest part of it all

The fact that people in this thread are poker players but are oblivious to the most basic concepts in betting
This is as old as time. There is basically no one I know who came from a successful poker background and learned to grasp betting in any material way. There is probably some actual inverse correlation between the two. Several people still can't grasp concepts such as Kelly Criterion and the implications after years of discussions on the subject.
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Old 01-08-2017, 07:16 PM   #971
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Re: MMA Thread

So you put him up to this pointless and time wasting tirade?
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Old 01-08-2017, 07:19 PM   #972
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Re: MMA Thread

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So you put him up to this pointless and time wasting tirade?
I assume you are referring to me. There is no way I'd put someone up to stepping into this cesspool. I'd do it on my own time. I find the weird dichotomy between the MMA thread and the rest of the forum to be kinda strange. (There are a handful of squares who post picks in the NFL/CFB/etc threads, but the MMA folk talk a very strange angle.)

It is mildly amusing when one posts something on the basis that the MMA market is a unique and special snowflake or just outright makes something up, but otherwise I don't care what you people do here. It is your own issue.
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Old 01-08-2017, 07:41 PM   #973
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Re: MMA Thread

You do care, you've taken the time to come here, read and reply. You care.
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Old 01-08-2017, 07:54 PM   #974
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Re: MMA Thread

Ya, I do notice posts by worthwhile posters who post valuable information I'm not aware of (and likely should be).

By "you people" I meant the regulars who make all the weird math errors, the continued refutation of Kelly, the hand waving about markets that are inefficient despite no evidence to the contrary, etc. You guys are welcome to donk away betting 0EV openers free from any input on how to improve or even think more clearly about the subject.

I think this weird "circle the wagons" approach to lvr (who is making a ton of his own mistakes) is weird. You could just read what he says, see if there is a point, and then respond in a clear manner rather than just going Nick Diaz or whatever some of the other replies have been.

Let me give you an example to help: "the only thing that matters is the odds". While his English is abhorrent and he doesn't expand on this. Ultimately every play is correct at a certain price. Most people think that ~closing lines are pretty accurate and the best estimation of the true prior probability. Some people here don't. They are mostly just crazy people. (There are times when I have disagreement and have bet too much to continue betting. But ultimately I get all the monies and the door generally closes.) Since all betting lines are implied probability and all factors must be synthesized into this price, he is obviously correct. Yet there are people here disagreeing which is silly and funny.

Anyway, hope that helps.
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Old 01-08-2017, 09:16 PM   #975
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Re: MMA Thread

I'm a super casual observer and enjoy the thread because it pertains to the only sport I follow and am semi knowledgeable about. I don't want to shut the discussion down as it is fascinating. That said, Mihkel, where did anyone disagree with what lvr was saying as far as concepts? The only disagreement and frustration I saw seemed to be that he was accusing people without example of disagreeing with those concepts, and in a strangely aggressive manor.

I'd like to understand more of the concepts you are talking about if you care to share and explain them. Speaking only for myself, I am ignorant of them for sure.
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