Gravity's Rainbow

1-1-4, +0.0u

TomG,
ive cobbled together enough accounts that take these hockey props that Ill definitely be doing them. Probably will start in 10 days or so. What do you suggest for a wager? Id like to do something weekly cuz I cant guarentee Ill be able to post em all year and/or will be able to stay in action all year. Maybe a weekly units won?

well i understand where you are coming from my concern is that by settling weekly it encourages a tournament style strategy more than just pure betting. for example if someone is down going into the last day they just do stupid **** like betting the entire board hoping to come back regardless of ev. or the person up a few units will bet more cautiously than otherwise warranted. that behavior is correct in this style competition but self defeating in actual betting. this is serious business, not some kind of game.

so let's either extend the time frame to at least a few weeks and/or set a min/max daily bet requirement

yea that makes sense. How about a 2 week time frame and a good faith clause, plus min risk 10 units per 2 weeks? Im not looking to bet any serious amount of money on this anyway, want to do it for fun and bragging rights, but of course there needs to be SOMETHING on the line.

that's fine. friendly game for small stakes. as i said from the start, if you have any track record of success at this you are the favorite. i have yet to demonstrate a positive return vs. the book.

after thinking about it, i suggest we try it this way. we both post plays, no limit on the time frame or min/max number of bets. each wager is base 1u (risking 1u for dogs or to win 1u for favs). we settle up whenever one party wants to quit. settle up is based upon differential between our units won/lost with each unit worth a pre-agreed upon dollar amount.

example
$10 unit
tomg -15.8 units and resigns
poogs -2.1 units

differential. 13.7u. tomg pays poogs $137.

there will be a lot of pushes (this bet is the pai gow of sports betting). we just need to agree on a lines set and $ per unit amount.

That all looks good to me.

for record keeping:

Canucker (poogs) & I (TomG) are doing a $1K x-book/unit

GOGOGOGO TomG

The only potential problem I can see is the line set agreement. I have four different books that Ill be using, and obv betting into the best line. I dont know where they get their lines from or if theyre even any different. I cant imagine theres too much difference though. What are you using, the greek?

yes i just look at greek. for our purposes, probably best to post opening lines to the thread before you make any of your own bets and then all our bets have to be made off those lines.

today's warmup.

jagr +100 over riemsdyk
e. staal +100 over ennis
kopitar -115 over forsberg
toffoli -115 over forsberg

do these officially count towards the contest?

just practice till we get started officially in 10 days or however long it takes for poogs model to reach a big enough sample size

Where is the best place/website for a sports fish to see what side of a bet is getting more action- and by how much? Looking to compare weight on a side to line movement, because that seems like a very logical (and lazy) way to find the right side of any game. At least in my fish brain it seems that way .

***If any long-time sports winner has a poker jones/leak and wants to trade Q&A with me, I'm down/send a PM to start the exchange.

Thanks!

3-0-1, +3.0u

ready to rumble

DGAF, look at pinny, bm, bovada and SB lines. if you see pin and bm are +11.5, and bov and SB are +12, then you know +11.5 is the sharp side where money is coming in

you win enough money to buy a pack of bubble gum? when are we gonna start betting NFL sides? lets go pats

eh...alright. Im not crazy about that but I dont see any other way of doing it.

How does 20 bucks a unit and start on nov 7th sound?

lol Poogs trying to angle shoot on line shopping

tyvm

I didn't even think about comparing fish sites to sharp sites..

I was trying to soul read the smart people at pinny and bet whenever their line didn't move to accommodate the lopsided wagering (or even better when it moved the opposite way). On a scale of 1-10, how dumb is that?

tomatoe- so far I owe you one poker answer if you ever have a poker question. Unfortunately I don't know much about anything else.

but we know who the real winner is

(ME I'M TALKING ABOUT ME CUZ I'D BE UP $3K)

that's fine. agreed. just to be clear, each day one of us will have to post the lines we'll be using to the thread. i don't care if i'm posting them from the greek or you are posting them from your outs. i just want to make sure we both have equal access to the same set of lines.

so for example, today i would post this link of a snapshot from thegreek's lines and we bet only off those.

http://pastebin.com/xuPFrmYf

please explain your idea more. but based on what im reading so far, it seems pretty dumb.

Haha, like tonight for instance I believe over 60% of the money has come in on Cavs, and yet there has been no line movement to reflect that/accommodate it. So I'm led to believe the books are taking a position on Tor +3. Is this dumb? Any reason for websites like covers, vegas insider, or sbr to lie about where the money is coming in? If not, why isn't the line +4 or whatever now?

Basically rather than actually try to handicap games myself (horrible idea), I'm just trying to soul read the books.

I realize ^^^ might all be incredibly fishy. Just trying to get better at my favorite hobby/somewhat plug my biggest financial leak. Thanks.

but like wat if the super casuals who are on the cavs bet $50 on average but the somewhat smarter but still square folk are betting $75 each on the raptards?