if you do what you love, you never have to work a day in your life

Or marry a hot rich girl

Poogs,

I like how you're so garish about your ignorance. In some ways this is even admirable. You really don't care what other people think of you.

ok, thank you. I dont have a pinny account so I didnt know that.

shots fired !!!

true beauty comes from the inside

I'm glad I'm not your type Poogsy.

Drinking pretty much everyday is not something to brag about.

i dont think he was bragging about it, the original question specifically mentioned drinking.

where do you live

I thought every pro punter has a pinny account unless they're a specialist and somehow avoid getting roasted by bookmakers that aren't sharp

That is the joke.

why bother with a pinny account they barely have props

lol NCSU

that kinda depends...

its raining monney. me and sharkey knew that alabama was a mortal lock today. im takinngn off ill see you guys inn the bahamas

Damn, I thought they were an immortal lock.

I have no need for a pinny account, not yet anyway. Maybe one day Ill join the secret millionaires club but for now I'm perfectly happy with my 20+ prop accounts at bottomfeeding.ag

Without meaning to disrupt the fun, I wish to interject with two cereal questions:

1. Atop the sports betting sub-forum is a sticky thread entitled "PropPlayer's Awesome Sports Betting FAQ." In it, the member "PropPlayer" suggests a standard staking technique of betting around 1-2% of one's bankroll on any given event.

I'm sure we'd agree that this is wrong- Kelly's is surely the optimal staking method. Yet PropPlayer is a winning bettor so my question is:

How has he made this fundamental mis-judgement? Would he be far richer if he had followed Kelly's? Or is there, in fact, a case to be made for his flat staking approach?

2. Does there exist a mathematical proof of why parlays are bad?

1) It is for noobs. And ya, he would have.

2) They're part of almost every optimal BR growth solution so it seems unlikely they are "bad".

You should only be using Kelly if you can definitively quantify your edge. Props recommendation of 1-2% will keep noobs out of trouble, and if youre in FAQ section, theres a decent chance youre a noob (which is fine. If youre in the FAQ section here youre off to a good start actually). Also I think most noobs tend to over bet as opposed to under bet in general, so theyd probably go broke quicker using kelly, as it is fairly aggressive.

And parlays aren't "bad" per se but people misplay them. I think sports fish get turned on by low risk, high reward stuff and tend to think that something that pays out 15-1 or whatever HAS to be good in the long run. Maybe they see it as a lottery ticket they can root for. But theyre great for getting around limits and getting in on some correlated stuff. Plus if you throw in a little favorite/over parlay on the monday night game its great cover.

If you, OP, are a noob starting out, youre asking the right questions.

Thanks very much guys. Regarding (2)- I think I need to go away and look into this in more detail. I only started betting seriously last month and It's likely that my logic isn't straight or that I've been led astray by toxic articles. My impulsive response for now though is this:

I want as much of my bankroll to be invested at any given time- preferably all of it. Kelly's staking recommendation on, say, a 5 game parlay could be as low as 1% (of one's BR). So, by including such parlays, I'd need to work harder to fully invest my BR than I would as a vanilla bettor, where my stakes (using Kelly's) are much higher.

I freely admit to being a lazy individual but, that aside, what is flawed in the above reasoning? (I'm conceding that there probably is a flaw somewhere there)

Edit: And yeah, I'm a noob. I did bet sports recreationally for a while but it's only very recently that I took it up as something resembling a full time job.

yikes...

Why do you want your whole BR in play at once? And why are you focusing on parlays? Especially a 5 teamer? I dont think Ive made a 5 team parlay in my life.

I've said this before; worrying about kelly staking at your stage in "development" is borderline absurd. Do you even know how to calculate your edge? (Assuming you even have one which I kinda doubt).

Getting your whole BR in is std. When beginning you can do it multiple times a day.

No one computes optimal kelly and everyone uses .5 Kelly assuming independence without accounting for Lagrangian constraints.

I mean to say in any given week (or even day if you can find enough + bets), I prefer to be fully invested. Provided I'm following Kellys, the events are independent and the bets are in fact +, that's fine right?

And I'm not keen on parlays, I just brought up a five legged one to illustrate how they might become annoying if you're trying to be fully invested. But it might've been an absurd example- I'm really not sure