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Old 05-04-2016, 01:22 PM   #1
Post-Oak
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Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (Current)

Anyone know a website that has all MLB pitching changes listed with some information like maybe timestamps? Other than looking for red names on SBR, I don't really know where to go for this info. Seems like it shouldn't be such a pain in the ass to find this info.
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Old 05-05-2016, 11:47 AM   #2
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

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Originally Posted by Post-Oak View Post
Seems like it shouldn't be such a pain in the ass to find this info.
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Old 05-06-2016, 01:37 PM   #3
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

5 Sports Fish Questions

(The first 4 would benefit me, the last one would benefit you- maybe a lot. Either way, anyone who is smart about this stuff and helps me I will help them with 5 poker questions/hand histories if they want)

Sports Fish Question #1
If you were generating money lines that you believed were true/accurate, you'd be printing (in terms of EV) whatever dollars you were able to beat them by (assuming you only bet $100 per play), correct? Example, you have a team at -150 and you get them at -135 and risk 135 to win 100, in theory you just made $15 in ev. ***This is very basic I'm sure and prob deserves some flames, I would just like confirmation if you don't mind/I'm pretty sleep deprived atm.

Sports Fish Question #2
If my assumptions are correct in question #1 and thus you had a small EV printing system, would you bet more units on the bigger discrepancies?

Sports Fish Question #3
Would you bet the same # of units on favorites as you would on dogs?

Sports Fish Question #4
In general, do lines move towards favorites as game time approaches/is it better to bet favorites early and dogs late?

Sports Fish Question #5
Why don't you guys have a "Fade Me" thread on this sub forum where only proven losers can post their plays with their fish logic? Or say if you hear two idiots at a bar talking about a "lock" or whatever you can post their play for everyone's benefit indirectly... Seriously, this seems like a pretty sweet/profitable idea to me.

Much Appreciated
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Old 05-06-2016, 01:42 PM   #4
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

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Originally Posted by DGAF View Post
5 Sports Fish Questions

(The first 4 would benefit me, the last one would benefit you- maybe a lot. Either way, anyone who is smart about this stuff and helps me I will help them with 5 poker questions/hand histories if they want)

Sports Fish Question #1
If you were generating money lines that you believed were true/accurate, you'd be printing (in terms of EV) whatever dollars you were able to beat them by (assuming you only bet $100 per play), correct? Example, you have a team at -150 and you get them at -135 and risk 135 to win 100, in theory you just made $15 in ev. ***This is very basic I'm sure and prob deserves some flames, I would just like confirmation if you don't mind/I'm pretty sleep deprived atm.

Sports Fish Question #2
If my assumptions are correct in question #1 and thus you had a small EV printing system, would you bet more units on the bigger discrepancies?

Sports Fish Question #3
Would you bet the same # of units on favorites as you would on dogs?

Sports Fish Question #4
In general, do lines move towards favorites as game time approaches/is it better to bet favorites early and dogs late?

Sports Fish Question #5
Why don't you guys have a "Fade Me" thread on this sub forum where only proven losers can post their plays with their fish logic? Or say if you hear two idiots at a bar talking about a "lock" or whatever you can post their play for everyone's benefit indirectly... Seriously, this seems like a pretty sweet/profitable idea to me.

Much Appreciated
1) Yes
2) Yes
3) No (Google Kelly Criterion)
4) No
5) Nobody loses at a high enough rate to beat the vig except for Sharky Sports and I think they committed ritual suicide.
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Old 05-06-2016, 01:45 PM   #5
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

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Originally Posted by Iowa! View Post
1) Yes
2) Yes
3) No (Google Kelly Criterion)
4) No
5) Nobody loses at a high enough rate to beat the vig except for Sharky Sports and I think they committed ritual suicide.
Very much appreciated.
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Old 05-06-2016, 01:46 PM   #6
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

1) you save money when you lose, but its the same when you win. so only $6 in ev
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Old 05-06-2016, 01:54 PM   #7
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
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1) you save money when you lose, but its the same when you win. so only $6 in ev
makes perfect sense, ty, I am an idiot
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Old 05-06-2016, 02:16 PM   #8
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by DGAF View Post
makes perfect sense, ty, I am an idiot
Quote:
Originally Posted by Derek123 View Post
1) you save money when you lose, but its the same when you win. so only $6 in ev
Opposite on positive odds.
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Old 05-06-2016, 03:57 PM   #9
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
Opposite on positive odds.
If -150 is true and I get -135 don't I win $100 60% ($60) and lose $135 40% ($54)--> $60-$54=$6ev?

If +150 is true and I get +165 don't I win $165 40% ($66) and lose $100 60% ($60)--> $66-$60=$6ev?

Shouldn't I be looking at equal discrepancies as fav or dog to the same true line as the same EV?

(sorry if this is all too dumb, I appreciate the patience)


edit: also after finally using my brain a little (and actually doing some math) beating a lower true line by an amount is better than beating a higher true line by that same amount (either way)

Spoiler:

Last edited by DGAF; 05-06-2016 at 04:08 PM.
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Old 05-08-2016, 03:50 PM   #10
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

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i thought this was worth cross posting. in the hsplo thread. debate going on whether it was ev or not
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Old 05-08-2016, 06:04 PM   #11
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

DGAF,

That is correct. I was commenting on the "when you win and when you lose" aspect.

Sicul,

Please don't sully this board with pokertards. They are uniformly stupid about math and probability. Please see all posts by pokertards in this forum.

NB: Its prob not worth betting even if you know its +EV.
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Old 05-19-2016, 02:23 PM   #12
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Billy Walters charged with insider trading today

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/bu...bler.html?_r=0
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Old 05-21-2016, 04:52 PM   #13
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

It is insane for a guy as rich as Billy to take those kinds of legal risks.
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Old 05-23-2016, 03:33 PM   #14
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Wasn't sure where to post this, but does anyone use the pinnacle API? I'm having a problem and its frustrating me. I'm putting a bet in through the API and some of them go through successfully. But some do not and return a "LINE_CHANGED" error. But the line does not seem to have changed recently. And I pull odds with the since parameter, and in a snapshot, and then try to bet it and still get the same error. And I can do a Get Line request on this specific line successfully. But then when I try to place the bet again it still gives the LINE_CHANGED error.

WTF???
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Old 05-27-2016, 08:08 PM   #15
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

I don't bet futures, and don't know the answer to this question. I'd like to hear if you know the answer.

Let's say I bet on Ole Miss to win the national championship for college football. Let's say that after I placed my bet but before the season begins, the NCAA issues sanctions against Ole Miss that prohibit participation in the college football playoffs. What is standard industry practice in this scenario among reputable sportsbooks?

Is my bet voided? Or is it graded as a loss?
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Old 05-27-2016, 08:28 PM   #16
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Depends on if it says All In or not.
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Old 06-03-2016, 01:28 PM   #17
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

mickle05 i have noticed you post in such an authoritative fashion that i feel surely i can learn a lot from you if you would be so magnanimous can you please post a list of some bets you made yesterday
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Old 06-03-2016, 02:17 PM   #18
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by tomatoe View Post
mickle05 i have noticed you post in such an authoritative fashion that i feel surely i can learn a lot from you if you would be so magnanimous can you please post a list of some bets you made yesterday
All the chat room millionaires were on Golden St series before Game 1.
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Old 06-03-2016, 02:59 PM   #19
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

I bet 10-20k on NBA props through my network of Bodog accounts as well.
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Old 06-03-2016, 03:03 PM   #20
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
Originally Posted by tomatoe View Post
mickle05 i have noticed you post in such an authoritative fashion that i feel surely i can learn a lot from you if you would be so magnanimous can you please post a list of some bets you made yesterday
You'd probably learn a lot more if you weren't such a distasteful bottom feeder that you need to change you handle every 100 posts to trick people into helping you.

This may or may not be related to your genuine mental illness.
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Old 06-03-2016, 07:54 PM   #21
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

you two are betting partners? how did you know golden state was a lock?
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Old 06-04-2016, 06:01 AM   #22
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

Quote:
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you two are betting partners? how did you know golden state was a lock?
Hive mind.
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Old 06-04-2016, 11:52 AM   #23
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

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Originally Posted by Mihkel05 View Post
This may or may not be related to your genuine mental illness.
alanismorissette.jpeg
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Old 06-04-2016, 12:43 PM   #24
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

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you two are betting partners? how did you know golden state was a lock?
Stevan Kerry is the second coming of Michael Jordan on the MVP of the league.
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Old 06-13-2016, 06:49 PM   #25
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re: Low-Content Forum Chatter Thread (OLD)

What up? Carbon is going to give me three free $5 bets, but I'm a noob when it comes to sports betting. I have one for NFL preseason, one for college football, and one for NFL regular season. Should I just go for favorites covering the spread to give myself the best chance of ending with cash in my account? Is this one of those things that I can't screw up?

Thanks.
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