My bet on ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (vs CINCINNATI REDS) from last night was graded a loss.

The game was 5-4 ARIZONA in the top of the 8th when it was suspended due to rain.

Anyone else with this issue? Their rules simply state that games are official after 5 innings.

Thanks

Should have been graded a winner. Make sure you didn’t accidentally bet the wrong team. Happens sometimes. They make mistakes sometimes also and almost always fix them when made aware of the error.

The fact that you told me to make sure I bet the right team makes me think you don't know what you're talking about.

They are adamant that it's a loss because the game "is graded according to the score at the end of the last completed inning". Their rules make no mention of this.

Ps Whats worse is it was one leg of an otherwise winning parlay

slandering someone trying to help you in a situation you yourself are so helpless to solve you create an account at a forum to seek help is never a good idea, you pretty much just killed any chance of anyone reaching out with further advice

well done chief

I’ve seen posts around of this being voided, a Dbacks win, and a Cinci win. Depends on rules of the book.

Are you talking about the game on April 20th? Because if so, that game ended up going the full 9 innings.

And not even an account at SBR, just a poker forum that can't possibly show up first when you type sports betting forums.

This was at Betonline fwiw. And their rules make no mention of this

There is no way this should be graded as a Dbacks win. From BOL's rules:

https://nvsportsbooks.com/houserules/

This is pretty standard stuff for anyone familiar with baseball.

is there any way to avoid the 3.5% CRIS withdrawal fee they added without warning?

total theft

I managed to get a MLB moneyline at +1000. This is on a legal regulated book. Obviously a mistake. Placed the bet yesterday (Sunday) and game is Tuesday. Is legal for them to void the bet? Will they? It's been over 24 hours and still ok.

I'm not very knowledgeable about the regulatory side of the business, but my understanding from working in Nevada is that here they would probably have to let it ride.

In the U.K. it will either be voided or your account will be banned unless your losing a tonne long term

Or both...

i have a query:

Let's say I'm making live tennis bets. Is there a website that shows the lines when they opened.

Thanks,
meshanti

Meshanti, if I were you, I'd build a simple scraper in Python that takes the odds from either SBR, Oddsportal, and have it pull the odds from the site. It may take a few days to notice when certain books post their odds.

A longer method might be to scrape the book you use the most, and keep an eye on how lines move over time.

I coded a function to calculate NBA/NHL series probabilities and exact-score probabilities using the game probability at each location. However, the series probability depends on a constant. In games when a team has a chance to clinch the series (except Game 7), said team is more likely to win. The endangered team's probability of winning that game is multiplied by the constant. For the NBA, a cursory glance tells me that this constant is about 0.8, for instance the Heat went from being almost 50% to win a home game to almost 40%.

Does 0.8 sound right for the NBA in general?

What should it be for the NHL and MLB?

Isolating the situations where an NBA team has won 3 games in a best-of-seven series, and the next game number in the series is less than 7, it looks like that team wins the next game 63% of the time (with n=338). So that's a coefficient of 1-(0.63-0.50)=0.87 (or 1.13 depending on which team you want to apply the adjustment to) if I've correctly understood your question.

Not quite, I'm multiplying the coefficient by the baseline probability, which depends on the matchup. I'd plug in the Game 1 probability based on the vig-free moneyline. That would be the favorite's home probability h, from which I'd estimate their road probability r. With a coefficient of 1, the favorite's probabilities would be (h,h,r,r,h,r,h), but if the coefficient is x<1 then games 4-6 can have probabilities hx, rx, 1-(1-h)x, or 1-(1-r)x.

I imagine that the situation is worth a fixed amount of points in the spread, and I'm trying to translate that to a probability reduction for the endangered team. My coefficient approach might be bad altogether; I haven't given it much thought, nor have I looked at historical lines to see if 0.8 is right. I'm basing 0.8 solely on the difference in the Bucks/Heat moneyline between games 3 & 4, trusting that the market knew the value of the situation. I'm curious if anyone here has already done a similar analysis (but less lazily / with a sample larger than one).

My theory is supported by the Sixers/Wizards Game 4 moneyline, as well as a few historical playoff lines from the past two seasons.

However, apparently in the finals, the effect is the opposite: the endangered team gets the probability increase. Unless there were injuries during the past two finals?

I wonder why the effect would be opposite before vs during the finals. Could it be that in the finals, both teams really want to win, whereas before the finals, the team that's facing elimination realizes that losing would mean their vacation begins?

I take that back after looking back to 2014. Instead, the effect seems to disappear, meaning I'd set the coefficient to 1.

I have the Habs for tonight against the Leafs. In typical Montreal fashion I think they pull the epic comeback against the superior Toronto team just to lose in 4 or 5 games in the next round and everybody including the media is happy. +180 in b365

I received a typo-ridden email from a @protonmail.com account on Monday to the address I used to register my NitrogenSports account with the subject "Fw: Latest info Nitrogensports Fraud!!!!". It was addressed to ~15 addresses which mostly looked like personal email accounts but included affiliates@nitrogensports.eu and marketing@nitrogensports.eu. Of course it listed all the emails plainly in the To line. Looks like somebody using ProtonMail doesn't care about others' privacy. Here's the email:

It went on to attach a screenshot showing what looked like an Excel file including some deposit and win/loss information from various accounts and included IP addresses although the last digit looked zeroed out on all of them (zeroing out the last digit of IPs is a semi-common practice in "anonymizing" them). It also included what looked like an SBR complaint form receipt:

The name was blanked out in the email but the account number (looks like the right number of digits for a Nitrogen account #) and the email addresses were listed in the clear. I omitted them here. The first three octets of the IP in the SBR receipt were also listed in the clear with the last octet being "VPN". Quoted typos are included here verbatim. There were some commonalities to the omitted gmail.com addresses and the protonmail.com address and it seems likely they belong to the same person.

Anyway, I'm curious if anybody else got something like this. I'm not sure what to think about it. Personally I expect a sportsbook to use IP addresses as a fraud prevention tool. I'm a little concerned that my email address leaked to this person but not overly so. Nonetheless, I've been screwed by books before and with the increase in crypto value over the last year I figured I could reduce my exposure to Nitrogen a bit. My guess is there's a disgruntled former employee at Nitrogen. I did a withdrawal of the majority of my balance and it processed successfully. I know some users on this forum have had issues with Nitrogen in the past but I've been a relatively happy, winning customer of theirs for a few years. Thoughts?

Seems like you are trying to datamine trends?
Isolating to just the NBA finals would have a huge sample size problem.

Perhaps...Compare home teams down 2-0, vs home teams down 3-0. From my recollection, that seems to be where you’ll see the biggest change in expected win probability.

Might be slightly off topic but is anyone good with tableau and would be willing to answer some pms/questions about datavizes I'm trying to construct?