Ok

You’re kinda killing multiple threads here guy

Yeah, Grandpa Simpson tried to tard up my BSP thread also.

So, this:
Which isn't really too surprising given the history of Binion's and the mob running LV at the time, gets responses like this:
As though that would stop big APs from raping games there?

And I'm ruining the thread?

I already stated I have no first-hand knowledge of any counters getting killed. The point I made was that many counters who were severely roughed up (and I think any sensible person would agree that happened) would not be willing to state their experiences on a public forum.

I asked Mason to add some of his thoughts as he was indeed involved with AP play back then, contrary to what some other posters here erroneously believe.

you said he "developed some advanced strategies." i don't doubt he wrote a book about them but he didn't "develop" them.

We already know he wrote AP books about blackjack.

I don't know with absolute certainty if he developed on his own every single method in his BJ books. But I'm reasonably certain you don't know either, and it seems likely he originated at least some of them.

I'm aware of a fairly obscure method he wrote about that worked for quite a long time for single deck. Kind of like Wonging without leaving the table. I don't recall anyone else taking credit for it.

ok so now that we have gotten to the bottom of the matter we have confirmed that you have no actual subject knowledge and this is just stuff you assume to be true. won't be engaging you further on this, you obviously have some sort of weird desire to be seen as a domain expert on this matter. you may continue to do so without any argument from me.

you’re too f’ing good sometimes man <3

Anyone following the drama on VSiN with gill Alexander French open bet? Weird spot that in some ways I can see both sides, but ultimately I do think the west gate freerolled a lot of the supposed losing tickets so they at least need to refund fully the losing bets and notify the players.

Could someone tell me what the edge is and how it’s calculated for the following:
You make a bet that pays +600 but the true odds are +400. Or in other words you are getting 6-1 for a 4-1 proposition. Thanks!

always convert american odds into percentages to work with. let's get started.

how often does a bet with true odds of +400 win?
suppose for example you risk $100 on the bet.
how much would you win if it the bet won? how much would you lose if the bet lost?
do we have everything we need to make an expected value calculation?

that should get you started. i don't want to just give an answer because then i would be robbing you of the opportunity to work through a fun exercise and learning something new and isn't that what life is all about?

How are you determining that the fair line is +400?

The BE% for +400 is 20%. So 80% of the time lose 100. 20% win 400.
The BE% for +600 is 14.2%. So 85.8% lose 100. 14.2% win 600.

Comparing my line to pinny and WH.

this is good work. you're well on your way now to setting up an expected value calculation. here is the general form to get you started:

expectedValue = (Win% * win$) + (Loss% * loss$)

it will give you a dollar amount assuming our example of $100 risked. you can then divide that number by $100 to get an ROI.

I appreciate your help but I don't think I'm coming up with the correct answer.

Using that formula I get:

.2*600=120
.8*100=80
120+80=200

so an expected value of 200 and ROI of 100%???

I'm trying to figure out what the edge is as a percentage in order to utilize Kelly to find the optimal bet size.

you're really close. one small error is causing a mistake. right now your formula shows you winning money under both outcomes. once in a while when betting sports you lose $.

for edge just calculate it by

prob to win * decimal odds -1

then kelly is just

edge/(decimal odds-1)

if you want to do say 1/2 kelly

then just multiply the above by 1/2

Easiest way: On average you're going to lose 4 times, then win once. Each time you lose, you lose one unit. When you win, you win 6 units. So on average, after 5 bets you net 6 - 4 = 2 units. So you earn 2 units for every 5 bets you place i.e you're earning 0.4 units every time you bet (on average). 40% edge.

great exercise! is anyone else surprised that it works out to a 40% edge? i've been doing this a long time and i'm still surprised sometimes by the power of plus odds.

does FOXBET limit winning players? they have pretty good limits and -110 lines on LIVE COLLEGE FOOTBALL. I would devote a lot of time to it, if I knew I could beat them and still get decent money down.

If he’s betting NFL player props doesn’t surprise me if he has a 40% edge

Every single regulated book limits to some degree, most of them offensively so.

This isn't accurate. I did play blackjack and was mainly someone who counted cards and did some rudimentary shuffle tracking (which is discussed in my book Blackjack Essays).

Also, in Blckjack Essays there is discussion of front loading and first basing along with some nice photos. However, I never did any of this myself and the book says that "Most of this material is derived from conversations I have had with two friends who are expert players."

Best wishes,
Mason

It's a shame that my book Blackjack Essays is sort of a forgotten book today. But it has a lot of good stuff in it and back in the day it sold a fair number of copies.

Best wishes,
Mason

Hi Fubster:

I think I'm the first to write about shuffle tracking, which I called card domination, and what I did was completely developed by myself. See my book Blackjack Essays.

Best wishes,
Mason