Is there a way to bet on this?

https://twitter.com/Suns/status/1238253668832600064

if DFS are any indication, it looks like the most promisingly liquid markets are Turkish soccer and Esports?

Well, I'm more of a soccer bettor than anything else.
Yesterday I placed two bets for the first time on the Chile league.
The games were postponed!
Gotta brush up on our Turkish soccer boys

Interesting bets one of my books just put up. Curious if anyone else has lines for these:

Which will have a game first:

NBA +180, MLB -220

NBA +280, NHL -380

MLB -190, MLS +150


My first instinct is NHL before NBA at -380 but wonder what you guys think

Can some doomers convince me otherwise about corona

The death rate from south korea seems to be 0.6%

That is based off all the confirmed cases so we can guess that the real death rate is a lot lower so what is all the commotion about

Is it ok to **** so many people over financially over this?

I am surely wrong since the world is reacting the way it is but what gives?

The death rate is closer to 1% it seems. South Korea has heavy testing and good contact tracing so they don't miss many, at least according to the WHO. But the death rate goes way up if it's not contained because the hospitals get overwhelmed with too many patients as this has a high hospitalization rate. And not only does the death rate go up significantly when that is the case, but the death rate for other diseases goes up because they don't have the ability to handle those cases properly either.

The economy was going to go in the shitter from this no matter what actions were taken.

How can it be 1% if there are thousands of untested people walking around oblivious to the fact they have corona

It would be at the worst case scenario 0.2%

They assumed that originally in Wuhan, then discovered that the Chinese were catching almost everything there. I'll see if I can find a link.

There are a lot of variables and without testing everyone, we may never really know.

But either way, those numbers will be be way higher if we run out of hospital beds.

All the people who don't see the gravity of this always do the mental math and assume a ton of cases are going unidentified and that the real date rate is far lower. The Chinese data has been stringent on this for a while and they are catching nearly every case, so automatically writing off the death rate is the wrong thing to do. And it's not just the death rate that matters, tons of people with long hospitalizations (20% need, 10% critical) these aren't short stays. They are grueling ordeals. No healthcare drives the death rate up. Getting this virus is no picnic, which is why so many are reluctant to work. Cardiac arrest, organ failure, permanent lung damage, damage in the testes, all widely reported. It's not as simple as the death figure makes it out to be.

hard to pin down death rate early and in real time just taking deaths divided by cases. overestimates by ignoring those untested, but underestimates by assuming current live cases don't die, when we know there's a pretty wide window (period of several weeks?) after diagnosis you can die.

Are you Chinese? You are delusional if you actually believe that lol

yawn. You're behind the curve bruh, HMU when you understand this better.

lvr, there's also the factor that a lot of people still have corona and the death rate is just those that have currently died vs all cases, died vs recovered is the true metric for death rate, the current cases of people who have it now but haven't died or recovered are effectively 'pending' cases to be resolved as either dead or recovered, but are counted towards the infected tally right now - obv on the other side of things, a lot of mild cases won't get diagnosed obv

Too soon to know the death rate obv you dont want to get it, it's less likely to be serious if young and healthy and more likely to be serious for people older or with asthma/poor health/autoimmune conditions etc

Also worth noting that even among the recovered cases a ton of them require hospitalisation and the main issue is if the hospital system gets overloaded because everyone catches it at once instead of over time more people die, hence Italy having a higher death rate than some other places so far like say Singapore or whatever

Even if it is inevitable that most people get it which it may or may not be you want to flatten the curve as people have been going on about to ensure the medical system doesn't get overwhelmed which lowers the death rate if the cases are spread out

So do you actually believe that China has not had any new cases in days?

lol

Well if nothing else, we can all agree that the chinese government is well known for its transparency

I just see this discounting the deathrate thing but it just seems to be taken out of thin air. I actually saw a new study today that said that it seems many people don't get symptoms at all. It's all kind of beside the point though. The bottom line is it's bad, we just don't know to what extent it is bad yet. This is a fog of war situation, it makes sense to be prudent.

i just hope this is worth it at the end

I will trust the world for the time being but having lost so much because of the government over night idk what to even think anymore

hundreds of thousands down the drain and a few of my businesses will have to die soon and many of my friends are in similar situations

lvr, if you're still not taking this seriously now then by all means take a vacation to milan, i'm sure the hotels are quite cheap these days

Sorry to hear that, that’s pretty sad. Hopefully the economic rebound is swift.

I've got serious empathy for small business owners in all of this. They are generally risk takers who improve the lives of many, with little thanks. Also, I have little sympathy for someone like lvr who made posts like this less than 2 weeks ago:

Total clown.

What is everyone doing with their money now that nearly all leagues have shut down?

I've been reading the Business/Finance/Investing forum but I'm a newbie so don't see myself getting involved for any significant amount of $.

Although it would be nice to put it in something that I can sell when sports are back (don't see this happening anytime soon though)

I hope real estate takes a hit from this. It's long overdue here in Toronto.

I have a bunch of properties and I pay a property manager. They contacted me about people not paying rent, etc. so I just said figure it out that's why I pay you, but I'm assuming that income will disappear for a while. It's not too bad since none of them have mortgages, I would just have to cover the HOA fees and property taxes.

Outside of that I'm an investing idiot. Most of my money was in money markets, high yield savings, CDs, bonds, etc. super low risk donk investments that have guaranteed %. I had some in stocks but it's still way up from where I started so I'll just hold. I don't know anything about crypto and sold everything I had during the first big surge. I also was big into precious metals like platinum, palladium, and rhodium. Might sell the palladium, but will keep the rest. Those are up so much in the last 3 years and I took so much profit out that it would have to crash to 0 to essentially cause an issue. I also have a lot of land but that's more of a long term investment. I just buy super cheap land near towns that I hope will explode soon. Been lucky with some plots outside of Austin in the last couple of years and hoping my investment around Kansas City will pay off soon.

The web based portion of my portfolio has been really struggling in the past week. Ad revenue is staying steady, but affiliate income is plummeting. It doesn't really affect me personally but what it's going to end up doing is just having me re-invest less money into the sites, which means less pay for people I hire, etc. Will try to keep them going for as long as possible but if it's running super negative (e.g., a site is losing 1k/month) then I'd probably scale back on content. I don't really see that coming soon tho. Most of them cover their costs (e.g., paying people to write, hosting, marketing, development of new sites) just from ads, affiliate income is the profit.

I personally don't know anybody that has gotten infected. Thank god.
And it is sometimes easy to think, when you are not personally effected, it's all some hysteria. And then I read in Yahoo news about a family who has something like 11 members effected and 3 dead. Tell them it's all overblown hysteria.
There is something definitely wrong with Ivr. First and foremost, he has a severe case of lack of empathy for others. Short sightedness? I'm not a doctor, I don't know exactly. All I know is, he couldn't give a scheisse if other people get sick and die, but he wants us to feel sorry for him and his buddies.
Pathetic.

so who did the cost-benefit analysis on this?

I wonder if more people will die due to the economy collapsing than corona ey