Thank you for the thoughtful post full of great examples and information. I learn best by doing so I plan on using this information to create a spreadsheet calculator to work through some examples. Please continue to share any other resources you think might be useful. Thanks again, you'd make a formidable bookmaker.

How is only one Eagles team top 20 all-time in Sitting Starter adjusted DVOA? And a lowly 15th at that.

Is Aaron okay? Did someone hijack his model and stop having it say Donovan McNabb is the greatest?

This happens when I try to cashout of BM after I put in verification code, I contacted support and they told me to try different devices/browser/clearing cookies, and the same thing happens no matter what I do. After telling them that, they don't say anything new and are just unhelpful.

Any suggestions for what I should do/or at least tell support? (I did somewhat solve the situation via the traditional cash out with Celtics 1H ML just now)

They're depo only for a few weeks now.

s'okay though, 1991 Eagles are still far and away the best defense of alltime.

Sports books must be killing it so much. Lot of #gamblingtwitter bragging about getting -130 on Wong teasers instead of -139 offered by FanDuel and how they’re going to make so much more money by line shopping.

Ignore the fact that they are barely profitable at -110

I withdrew from bookmaker on thurs but I had to use edge. Wire hit one day later on fri as usual

we requested and received a max withdrawal yesterday.

check cookies as this often causes issues with their site
check that you're not over the daily/monthly payout limit
check that they received and correctly marked your docs as verified

if it's not one of those, good luck. their customer service is abysmal.

Just saw that thread, dude is one of the dumber touts out there. A few months back we had an exchange and I mentioned "if you played poker you'd understand this concept" and he gave a response stating he had a career in poker before DFS. I asked where he played and never responded so I googled him and he was a dealer in a small card room in Colorado.

lol thats the best. Poker dealers who are 'into poker' are the absolute WORST

are you serious?

One of my bookies offers a bet where you can combine half time Handicaps with full time Handicaps for the same match (Basketball).

How can I calculate the threshold where this bet becomes +EV?

E.g. let´s take the Euroleague Basketball game between Alba Berlin and Maccabi Tel Aviv.

Pinnaclesports has
Alba Berlin +4,5 @ 1.952 (in american odds: -105)
Maccabi Tel Aviv -4,5 @ 1.934 (in american odds: -107)

The bookie that I´m referring to offers the bets:
Alba Berlin 1st half +2,5 + Alba Berlin full time +4,5
and
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st half -2,5 + Maccabi Tel Aviv full time -4,5

You need to hit both the HT spread as well as the FT spread
to win the bet.
I still think there has to be a threshold where the bet becomes +EV, because
when the team covers the HT spread covering the FT spread becomes
more likely automatically. I deliberately omitted the odds for the bets, because I´m
interested in how to go about calculating the threshold for a +EV bet starting
from the Pinnacle odds.

How liquid are these markets? Obviously if these are small markets than the Pinnacle line data isn't going to be too valuable

Have you tried looking at historic HT and FT scores?

Just listened to an economist podcast that darts has a chance to get big in the US, could be good for you guys here that are ahead of the curve on that already

be careful about making assumptions

Probably not.

Picking against the public generates a decent edge - I've heard around 52%. You can use a site like Yahoo to determine what most bettors are doing.

Picking dogs on the road historically also generates an edge; someone else on this board posted about 52.7% recently.

There's an old saying: "sharps like points." Picking favorites to cover probably is not the best strategy.

Background: I've picked all games on Yahoo Pick Em' at just over 54% for the past two years.

This is a monster correlation. If you are getting close to 2.6:1, you probably end up betting most of them.

lol look another nonsense cryptic drive by. this fookin guy...

which by the way is even worse than nonsense. Those bets are massive +EV

500 € max bet, but I can circumvent this limit quite easily.
Euroleague Basketball is not a small market, it is the most popular
Basketball competition in Europe and I´m pretty sure that it
has the highest betting limits in Basketball apart from the NBA.

I know that the Pinnacle lines aren´t as sharp as they used to be and I also know that
they recently increased their vig. However, I was just using Pinnacle as an example benchmark, I could just as easily use any other bookmaker as a benchmark.

I have not yet looked at the historical data, because I´m still trying to figure out
how big the correlation is (or rather how to calculate it).

I get less than 2.6:1.
Nevertheless I still think that the bets could potentially be +EV as I don´t have to bet every game
and I can pick certain spots.

I hope so.

I´ll give you guys another example from the NBA.

Pinnacle has:
Celtics +2,5 @ 1.869 (american odds: -115)

My bookie offers:
Celtics half time +1,5 / Celtics full time +2,5 @ 2.40 (american odds: +140)

Is this bet potentially +EV?
How big would the odds need to be to make this a +EV bet?

Remember that I need to hit both the +1,5 half time spread as well as the full time +2,5 spread in order to win this bet.

I feel bad now for criticizing the parlays in uncut gems

evergreen

That looks like a reasonable price (but I'm not using any data).

Do they offer it for NCAAB? I could build a tool the price those parlays in about an hour (I already have data and a tool that prices many derivs and correlated parlays).

If you are betting US Baskets (NBA or NCAAB), I'd probably use Bookmaker's line -- it's sharper now IMO.

I feel OKC will win this night. let we see

I don't think +140 is good.

2 ways to figure this.

1) Assume +2.5 -110 no vig, so win chance 0.524. To b/e you would need 1H to hit 1/2.4/0.524 = 80%, which seems high to me. I did not look at the data but I'm guessing it would show +2.5 dogs that cover game also cover +1.5 1H about 70-75%.

2) Assume +1.5 1H win chance is 0.5. To b/e you would need game to hit 1/2.4/0.5 = 83%, which again seems high to me.

I'm fairly sure this would vary on handicap, and might also vary on fav/dog.

I think you need about -130 on the game to get close to +EV for +140.

Cash Cash Cash