tl;dr

Seriously what is going on here? Can you sum it up in 3 sentences please?

what if i told you im really hard

Interesting regardless of whatever intention behind all this. Barclass I have a question for you. Why this forum?

Being on a manic episode must be one hell of a ride.

this is quickly becoming one of the more entertaining/interesting thread on 2+2

Cliffs: OP is 22. Awhile ago he was 18 and liked real estate. Now he likes the stock market. He has $20k to his name. His friend has $37k. He trades OPM of $370k using php code. He lists some nonsense formulas. He makes $6k/month. He thinks he can beat market for 50% ROI/year. He asks if its possible for one individual to beat sports betting and believes the answer is no.

2% legit awesomely successful person
40% mental illness
30% understands the nature of markets but is self-deluded
30% does not understand markets and is self-deluded
25% troll

yeah, it doesn't add to 100%. More than one of those things might be simultaneously true.

What exactly is the purpose of this thread? If you're claiming no one can win at sportsbetting you're objectively wrong, even I win at sportsbetting and i'm far from the sharpest person who posts here, let alone the actual elite sportsbettors who don't post or share info at all. If you're trying to claim you're successful at life nobody really cares one way or the other or if there's some other purpose to the thread what is it exactly?

I'd make a joke about how we've found Matt Marafioti, but that would be in poor taste

divide by 100000000000

I agree. A closed form algorithm sounds near impossible. Thankfully I'm not dumb enough to try such a moronic solution to an easily solved problem.

at 20 i had 25k in my bank accoutn from working at dunkin donuts throughout high school and college

and i did it without algorithms

Okay. I've suspected you pick an choose evidence to confirm your own biases. Atleast now I know.

Best of luck with your "bets".

amazing

Robert,

But we know dis you.

Generally speaking weighted polling averages are the way to go, but certain polling outfits are garbage and campaign resources like ground game do matter (for example Reid over Angle in NV-SEN 6 years ago).

I do have some biases when it comes to politics but I feel they are grounded in logic for the most part with a reliance on demographics being what I expect them to be in any given election (eg. if the turnout in a presidential year mirrors a midterm or vice versa, i'm probably going to be way off).

Regarding the random insults you post directed at me and pretty much everyone else here I guess i'll just assume you have some sort of mental disorder.

You have me to thank for that in part. I sent him here after he opened it in the wrong section. I didn't expect you guys to be so nice to him though. I think that's helping the awesome along nicely. I simultaneously apologize to those who don't love this guy. But I think you need to be dead inside for that.

I've never publicly posted a phony record to seem like a winner. What type of mental disorder is required to do that?

You don't really bet. You fabricate history. I wouldn't follow your "analysis" ever. I just want to point out the facts so people can decide.

No, you enjoy being an ******* and an attention whore for the sake of it while contributing nothing of value.

We could certainly take a poll of who contributes more. In this little interaction, I've refrained from any name calling (such as saying you have a mental disorder or whatever was caught by the profanity filter) and instead relied on facts.

Nate's methodology is solidly better than in past years, as he no longer engages in stupid practices like taking proprietary campaign polls and lumping them in and has even included some generally regressed economic indicators. Obviously his model isn't predictive since it uses polling data from the past that may or may not be representative of the future.

I just find it quite amusing you pick and choose your evidence to fit your liberal thesis rather than viewing these things as facts. I've probably won an order of magnitude more just on the last election than you have in your entire sports betting career, so instead of name calling and making up fake records, try learning.

It's amusing you don't even think you're 'name calling' by making unfounded accusations against me. You randomly attack other users who try and contribute on this forum regularly, it's not just me. I don't particularly care, but you're certainly not contributing anything useful. Occasionally you post something like 'your methodology is garbage' when someone is trying to discuss a concept. Even if that's true, your post adds no value.

I'm not disputing that you've probably won more money than me sports betting, after all i'm only up five figures lifetime sportsbetting which is not a lot. I'm sure if your claims about what you do are true you're up more. Good for you.

I am well and truly aware that I have a liberal bias politically and tend to bet more in election cycles where liberal candidates are more likely to win. I think less than 10% of my lifetime political bets have been on conservatives, but I do have a solid winrate. I believe I went 1-1 in the 2010 cycle (won on Reid, lost on Feingold) but I had very good cycles in 2008/12 winning all major bets (mostly on Obama and Obama to win certain states) and didn't make any significant wagers in 2014

ROI is a more useful measure than total profit in any regards on political wagering in my opinion so bragging about how much money you have won doesn't mean anything if your average bet size is as high as you claim. If your ROI is amazing good for you, unless you're sharing your analysis/picks again nobody cares.

It is clear why you washed out of poker if you can't grasp why someone telling you that you are wrong is devoid of value. Especially someone who's a few orders of magnitude more successful than you.

I won >100k on the last election. I think I "get it".

You're just a clown who posts nothing of value. Literally. Picks are literally the last thing I'm interested in from anyone intelligence. You are just so totally ass backwards with your method, thinking, and results that I find it incomprehensible. Then again, I didn't play poker for McDonald's manager money so w/e.

Just keep posting fake records and you do you.

PS: What is an unfounded accusation? Your record is fake. You have acknowledged it. It is there, and fraudulent. The fact you claim it is unfounded does not make it as such.

spoken like a true poor

I haven't been here in ages, what's going on with Swoop? 2 line summary?

2 line summary: Mikhel doesn't like me, thinks i'm a 'scammer' of some sort because I tracked my bets using incorrect methodology due to inexperience several years ago in a thread here. Proposes bet, we can't reach terms because I think he's angleshooting and he refuses to provide his real name, he stalks me on 2p2 abusing me for several years afterwards.

Long version

Due to a lack of experience at the time in the esports thread a year or two ago I was adjusting the average price if I added units onto a bet, for example If I fired 1u at -125 and 1u at -127 i'd post my play as 2u -126 and I was tracking my record as if all bet sizes were equal using the average price I got. I was completely open that I was doing that because the thread was just for fun and I was only keeping track of how much I was up or down in the thread for my own amusement and he thought it was inflating a record for some unknown ulterior motives. At no point was I advising anyone to tail my picks or trying to tout or solicit funds from anyone, I was just posting the picks I liked because people enjoyed discussing them in the thread and he took this as me 'deliberately inflating my record' to somehow 'scam people' which isn't even close to true, at no point have I ever claimed that people should tail my picks or solicited money from anyone here or elsewhere for anything sports betting related. In hindsight I realised this was not the standard way to track bets being won or lost so just stopped posting records altogether on 2p2. I still post my picks in the MMA thread and that's it really.

Mikhel sent me abusive messages here and on twitter for quite some time and tried to get me to agree to a bet to 'prove' my record, we tried to set terms and I believe (personal opinion, I can't say this with 100% certainty as they bet did not take place) that he tried to angle shoot me on the proposed bet by insisting any minor rounding error over thousands of bets eg me recording a bet made at 1.90 as -111 rather than -111.1 leading to my 'records' being off by a dollar resulting in him winning the bet, I proposed my records be within 1% of claimed results for me to win which would show that I was clearly profitable over the disputed 'records', he declined and called me a scammer and at that point I gave up and I told him I want nothing to do with him. On a seperate note we couldn't agree on an escrow, I proposed a bunch of regular posters/mods on 2p2, he insisted it be Iowa! who is a close personal friend of his who I know nothing about who has also never been anything but rude towards me. Basically, we couldn't come to terms, and he insisted this was because I was a 'scammer' of some sort and has since stalked me on 2p2 attacking me basically any time I post anything.

Oh, and he did all of this anonymously without agreeing to provide his real name etc, while mine is publicly linked to my 2p2 account. This objectively makes him a coward in my opinion. I now know who he is, due to someone else telling me, but he was insisting I bet a five figure amount with him with his friend who I don't know as an escrow, and terms that left me open to angle shooting and he refused to even let me know his real name which is obviously info you'd want if you're betting 10k with someone.

Now he stalks me from thread to thread posting insults any time I try and give any advice to anyone or post any sort of analysis, basically telling me that anything I have to say is worthless, making false accusations and basically telling me to stop posting.

For what it's worth Mikhel if you want to bet that i'm not up five figures in the past year (which isn't even impressive) then i'll happily prove that I am, and would allow someone we both agree on to audit my accounts.

If you're happy to say i'm a 'marginally profitable small time sportsbettor' then i'll happily admit that while I don't like or respect you at all, if all of your claims that you have posted no evidence for are true, and I will assume they are true, you are a 'better' sportsbettor than me and most people and have more money than me. Will that satisfy your ego?

I expect realistically we won't reach an agreement on any bet, so at this point I propose how about you never respond to one of my posts again and I never respond to one of your posts again because it just derails all of the threads you randomly attack me in. If you want to propose a bet on my results over the last 12 months on my claim that I am profitable over my last 8000 bets to the tune of five figures, feel free to make a specific offer with terms either in the thread or via PM

To anyone calling me 'poor' or whatever, I don't have a million dollars like you do. I've been a moderately successful poker player and sportsbettor and made a living without becoming rich, i've never claimed otherwise. If you've made a million dollars sportsbetting, then legitimately all I have to say is good for you, well done, I hope to as well one day.