Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Sports Betting Discussions related to wagering on sporting events.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-20-2017, 07:09 PM   #1
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Local parlay cards

Got a few local guys who hand out the cards. Payouts are **** and ties lose but theyre printed on Tuesday and I don't have to turn them in till Friday nite so you can get some soft lines.

I'm just wondering how I should attack these things, if at all. I hit a 4 and 5 teamer last week but realized this week I made some major errors calculating my edge cuz I was using the number, like +14, as my number when since ties lose I should have been using +13.5 right?

Pays 5 to 1 for 3 teams, 9 to 1 for 4 teams, and 14 to 1 for 5 teams. The 5 teamer odds are just brutal, isn't it 20 to 1 normally?

Anyone willing to throw me a bone and let me know what I should be doing, or just let me know its a waste of time that's cool too. I have no ego here, just looking for some honest replies. Wont mind at all any negative comments as long as theyre true lol

Thanks for any replies
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2017, 01:12 AM   #2
Derek123
adept
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 981
Re: Local parlay cards

for the 3 teamers you need each leg to be 55% just to break even. so you are going to need some big line moves. plus like you realized full point spreads need to be deducted .5 to account for ties. doesnt seem worth it..
Derek123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-21-2017, 09:17 AM   #3
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

Yeah currently I have three games at 57% and two 56%s, seems like about 6% ROI but I'm only doing $100 card so yeah $6 ain't much.

Thanks a lot for the reply
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-20-2017, 10:02 PM   #4
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

So my guy is letting me parlay 1H lines with full game lines of the same game. Hit one last week and he said nothing when I got paid so I'm gonna roll with it.

Anyone know how big of edge this is?
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2017, 09:19 AM   #5
akkopower1
centurion
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 126
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeToParty View Post
So my guy is letting me parlay 1H lines with full game lines of the same game. Hit one last week and he said nothing when I got paid so I'm gonna roll with it.

Anyone know how big of edge this is?
What do they pay?
akkopower1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2017, 10:19 AM   #6
Like
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 316
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeToParty View Post
So my guy is letting me parlay 1H lines with full game lines of the same game. Hit one last week and he said nothing when I got paid so I'm gonna roll with it.

Anyone know how big of edge this is?
lol....what do you think?
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2017, 01:37 PM   #7
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
lol....what do you think?
Huge I'm assuming buddy. Just wondering how I should attack them.
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2017, 01:38 PM   #8
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by akkopower1 View Post
What do they pay?


Pretty ****ty. 5 to 1 in 3 teamers and 9 to 1 on 4 teamers
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-21-2017, 09:27 PM   #9
akkopower1
centurion
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 126
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeToParty View Post
Pretty ****ty. 5 to 1 in 3 teamers and 9 to 1 on 4 teamers
No, what do the H1 full game parlays pay?
akkopower1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2017, 12:58 AM   #10
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by akkopower1 View Post
No, what do the H1 full game parlays pay?
Minimum three teams, so you gotta add something else in
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2017, 07:18 AM   #11
akkopower1
centurion
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 126
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeToParty View Post
Minimum three teams, so you gotta add something else in

Wow!!!! How has your bookie not gone bankrupt.

Let’s say at the start of the week your bookie offers

Pats h1 -6.5
Pats ft -12.5
Steelers -3.5

At the end of the week pinnie has

Pats h1 -5.5
Pats ft -9.5
Steelers -1.5

You can get 5:1 on the lines set at the start of the week????

OMFG, that is value town!!!

It should be a no brainer, figure out which two lines are furtherest from the online bookies lines and parlay up the h1/ft for each game.

If you google NFL win margin graph, find the graph with all the win margin %’s, halve those percentages (either team can win by that amount), then adjust the prices set by Pinnacle accordingly, you’ll arrive at a crude “true price” for the lines.

Bookies like bet 365 would have ht/ft lines parlays (team must win by at least thevdisayed line at h1 and ft) add 8% to adjust the price and you’ll have a crude measure of the h1/ft parlay.
akkopower1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2017, 11:37 AM   #12
Like
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 316
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by akkopower1 View Post
Wow!!!! How has your bookie not gone bankrupt.

Let’s say at the start of the week your bookie offers

Pats h1 -6.5
Pats ft -12.5
Steelers -3.5

At the end of the week pinnie has

Pats h1 -5.5
Pats ft -9.5
Steelers -1.5

You can get 5:1 on the lines set at the start of the week????

OMFG, that is value town!!!

It should be a no brainer, figure out which two lines are furtherest from the online bookies lines and parlay up the h1/ft for each game.

If you google NFL win margin graph, find the graph with all the win margin %’s, halve those percentages (either team can win by that amount), then adjust the prices set by Pinnacle accordingly, you’ll arrive at a crude “true price” for the lines.

Bookies like bet 365 would have ht/ft lines parlays (team must win by at least thevdisayed line at h1 and ft) add 8% to adjust the price and you’ll have a crude measure of the h1/ft parlay.
lol...dont do any of that.

Just get down as much as possible for as long as possible. Thats it. There isnt a single game you wont have a massive edge on no matter what side you take. Use lots of cover plays and dont kill him. Sheer him week by week and just be smart about it. Find another bettor and give him to the agent for free (but dont tell him about the parlays obviously). You could stay there for years if youre smart. Well maybe a year. But yea your edge is ridiculous.
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-22-2017, 11:39 AM   #13
Like
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 316
Re: Local parlay cards

I didnt acutally read the replies...I didnt know it was pushes lose and ****ty odds. You still have a crazy edge though. **** this guy...punish him. Hes raping his customers pretty bad cuz you know they all play 5 teamers.
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2017, 01:08 AM   #14
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

Thanks a lot like I appreciate the input
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2017, 01:16 AM   #15
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

This weekend I did two $50 three teamers.

(1H) San Diego st -4
(Full game) San Diego St -7
49ers +7

And

(1H) 49ers +4
(Full game) 49ers +7
Texans +10
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2017, 01:18 AM   #16
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeToParty View Post
This weekend I did two $50 three teamers.

(1H) San Diego st -4.5
(Full game) San Diego St -7.5
49ers +6.5

And

(1H) 49ers +3.5
(Full game) 49ers +6.5
Texans +9.5


Since ties lose I guess I should post them like this
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2017, 07:14 AM   #17
akkopower1
centurion
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 126
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by ILikeToParty View Post
Since ties lose I guess I should post them like this
Texans and 49ers lines are fantastic!! Good luck in your second parlay, mega value there!!!

I think you took the wrong side of the chargers, online bookies say winning by more than a TD won’t be easy.

If I PayPal transfer you $5k can you put that on the second parlay for me?
akkopower1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2017, 10:55 AM   #18
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by akkopower1 View Post
Texans and 49ers lines are fantastic!! Good luck in your second parlay, mega value there!!!

I think you took the wrong side of the chargers, online bookies say winning by more than a TD won’t be easy.

If I PayPal transfer you $5k can you put that on the second parlay for me?

I'm on San Diego St in college football today, not the chargers
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2017, 02:10 PM   #19
Like
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 316
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by akkopower1 View Post
Texans and 49ers lines are fantastic!! Good luck in your second parlay, mega value there!!!

I think you took the wrong side of the chargers, online bookies say winning by more than a TD won’t be easy.

If I PayPal transfer you $5k can you put that on the second parlay for me?
are you a real person?
Like is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-23-2017, 08:58 PM   #20
akkopower1
centurion
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 126
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
are you a real person?
I struggle the make 5’6” with platforms, but don’t let that fool you, I am indeed real.
akkopower1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2017, 03:32 PM   #21
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

Wire me the 5k already .....
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-24-2017, 10:15 PM   #22
Sabaneta
adept
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,009
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by Like View Post
I didnt acutally read the replies...I didnt know it was pushes lose and ****ty odds. You still have a crazy edge though. **** this guy...punish him. Hes raping his customers pretty bad cuz you know they all play 5 teamers.
remarkable you've won money at this
Sabaneta is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-26-2017, 11:55 AM   #23
Weenus
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: 1537 Teramo Street
Posts: 82
Re: Local parlay cards

Quote:
Originally Posted by akkopower1 View Post
I struggle the make 5’6” with platforms, but don’t let that fool you, I am indeed real.
another Jafar ghost EXPOSED
Weenus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2017, 12:09 AM   #24
ILikeToParty
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: Just partyin
Posts: 1,406
Re: Local parlay cards

This weeks games that have half and full game lines. 1st half line listed first (obv). Ties lose so I listed the lines at what we're actually getting, so like -4 I will list as -4.5 and +4 will be listed as +3.5


Louisville -4.5 / -7.5
Miss St +3.5 / +6.5

Penn St -3.5 / -3.5
Washington +2.5 / +2.5

Memphis -3.5 / -4.5
ISU +2.5 / +3.5

Wisconsin -4.5 / -7.5
Miami +3.5 / +6.5

Michigan -4.5 / -8.5
SC +3.5 / +7.5

Auburn -7.5 / -10.5
C FLA +6.5 / +9.5

LSU -3.5 / LSU -3.5
ND +2.5 / +2.5

Georgia -0.5 / -1.5
Okl -0.5 / +0.5

Alabama -3.5 / -3.5
Clemson +2.5 / +2.5
ILikeToParty is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2017, 01:52 PM   #25
Like
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 316
Re: Local parlay cards

Without the correlation those are some of the worst odds/payouts Ive ever seen, and Ive seen some disgusting things. You have a moral obligation to win as much money from him as possible.
Like is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:13 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online