Quote:
Originally Posted by BadBeatBodog
I'm finally at the point where I should probably be betting more than my prop limits. For various reasons, I cannot always get the same amount down on each prop. Should I be betting as much as I can on every prop, even if that means sometimes I'm betting $100 and sometimes $1000? Or is it better to aim for a more uniform bet size. Not using Kelly. My gut tells me, if I have an edge on every bet I should just be getting down as much as possible each time but I am hoping for confirmation either way.
Glad to hear the prop betting has been going well for you, I enjoyed reading about your modeling experiences earlier this year.
What's your sample size with the current version of the models you are using? I switched over to a trading position earlier this year and in the past several months I've seen accounts go on pretty impressive runs over the course of a few hundred bets, usually just to give it all back. If I remember correctly guys like Sigs from the Crowdsource Syndicate were using Kelly, but ended up always max betting props because their bankroll and edge was big enough that what the Kelly method would have told them to bet was bigger than the limits anyway. There's plenty of material to be found throughout the internet to guide you in deciding which way to go, but if you aren't sure how to answer that question on your own yet, maybe holding off on the max betting for now is in the best interest of protecting your bankroll.