I built the tool. Full game spread of 4.5, totals averaging 140:
First half +2.5 parlayed with Full game +4.5 hits about 33.3% (home/home and road/road are about the same). So you'd need about +200 for it to be break-even.

How many hobbies can you make a ton of money at over a decently large sample (like 500 bets) and be a novice?

I have been tracking the handicappers of CBS Sportsline for about 5-6 months now and almost all of them are hitting between 56-62%. They take almost all public favorites.

When can you tell if someone like this is good or just getting lucky?

Don't know if that's money line or spread. But if it's money line you could still pick favorites, rack up a pet impressive w/l record but still lose money.

For reference, check out the 30 day challenge thread where people are trying to pick winners 30 days in a row on massive favorites to spin up $5 into like $50k or something

Or, another way to look at it, if you have 25 monkey's blindly picking teams in 10 games based upon fair spreads (so it's really a 50/50 chance) then at least one of them will get 8 or more of the 10 picks correct 75% of the time.

I can imagine there's enough people involved in that website that it'll be difficult to truly isolate out those who are just getting lucky if they do it by spread.

Sorry, it's spread. Guys are all hitting around 250-160. Some a little better, some a little worse. I've validated the records they have posted.

Is that enough of a sample size to blind tail these guys? In order to hit that what edge do you think they have against sportsbooks? Do they have models? What are they doing on a day to day basis to hit such a strong % and off of that how can I adopt it?

I mean, that's a pretty significant sample size so I'd lean towards them knowing something.

You can always do the math to be sure though. You can look at how large the population is and figure out how many people in a population that large over a sample size that big would hit those rates naturally if picking blind. If there are far more than to be expected then I'm sure a couple must be pretty good at it.

It'll certainly have a higher roi than paying for picks, I'm 100% certain about that.

But at the same time I doubt the pros would be doing it for a living (there are some in here in the thread so maybe they can chime in????) would ever spend time posting picks so you're likely capped at a talented hobbyist as someone to follow.

What I'd do is first guess what you think the lines will be. Then take a look at the lines and pick the "inefficiencies" ie if you think it's -3 Ari but the actual spread is -1 Ari then you obviously bet ARI.

Only then would I take a look at the accounts you trust in and see where they disagree it agree with you and try to figure out why. That should arm you with enough info to agree or disagree with their conflicting picks.

But realistically, most pros are either building models or doing heavy line shopping so I wouldn't treat this anymore than a hobby unless you're willing to go to those lengths. .

There's a thread here that's a few months old dealing with how to build a model. I'm on my phone but there's not too much volume in this sub so shouldn't be too hard to find. I'd also imagine there may be a thread about how to love shop and if not you could make one. That's something I don't know about myself so if you find one or create one please post the link here so I can lurk

Post this over at Peeps where $6 footlong can see it. He works there and has always been helpful with stuff like this.

Your chances of losing doing this are 100%.

Esp since they have 40 'experts' picking games and only give the result for 2 handfuls of them, and those they do they only list the sports where they have winning records, some of which are a whole 2-1 ats. Wow, 2 outta 3!

Definitely worth paying $10/mo for the privilege.

nobody is hitting 60%

I've seen this bet recently offered at my book but slightly different I'd be interested to hear if you thought it was +EV. They allow you to parlay the full game moneyline + halftime 3 way line (ties lose)+ 1Q 3 way line.

Taking an example from tonight's game

Rockets vs Blazers

I can parlay Rockets -390 game line, -270 1st half 3 way line, -210 1Q 3 way line and get this at -105.

They're juicing the 1H and 1Q line by 20 cents then what's available not to mention ties lose but is there enough to make it +EV.

Just putting this out there, i know a bunch of you guys feel strongly about deck prism so thought I'd share

I've been playing bodog/bovada/igintion poker for 5 years, played 1.5 mill~ hands (50-500nl) winning player 5bb~, with the 2-3 random bets a year for a while maybe losing like 500~ a year.

Over the last month I've upped my sports betting having done 50~ bets with a ROI of 12% with an average bet of 300~.

I'm prob just a fish on a heater/SSS, but at what point to sports books limit bets/close accounts? I always want to play the poker on this site, but I have read stories of accts getting closed from sports betting winners and I don't want that to be me.

You’ll still be able to play poker, they’ll just limit your sports bets to $25 or $10. You never know at what point that happens but I’ve found it’s usually after cashing out a bunch of winnings

they care more about what kind of bets youre making as opposed to how the bets do. If youre clicking along at 12% at 300 a pop in player props youll get limited at some point. If those are straight bets you wont even get looked at

I got limited by bovada to $25 in like 3 months of betting NBA player props. Only made like $3-5k on it too before it was gone.

I had one account a long time ago they let go from 500 to 13k before shutting me down, and another they shut down in less than a month which barely made anything.

Probably 90% of the bets are NBA point spread live betting when teams go on runs and the lines are super juicy in comparison to the opening lines. Is this good/bad? Haha

I dont think youll have problems getting down on that

If they find you have an edge on livebets, they will probably just lower your live betting limits. With only ~50 bets in a month, you’re probably in the clear for awhile.

Whats the least-worst sport to include in a 6 point teaser other than football? And how bad is it? I want to tease SF to +7.5 (at -110) before it disappears but am wondering if the other leg will make it -EV. I was thinking teasing a CBB team with a super low total but I feel teasing basketball at all just sucks so much. Thoughts?

Also I have a 3 teamer teaser at +180 with 2 winners in it so far and one open spot. Im hoping this book will go to 1.5 so I can get SF at 7.5 on there. Thoughts on where the lines is heading?

tease SF and under?

I suppose. I hate teasing totals but theres probably some correlation there.

What about teasing NFC to 7.5 in the pro bowl? Any data on pro bowl teases and/or push charts?

you sure thats good with a 54 total?

No, not at all. But I love getting teams that are market at +1 where you can find a 1.5 and get 7.5. Then if the lines moves you can get the other team at +7.5 for a big middle.

But I do take the total into account and honestly if this wasnt the superbowl id probably pass. I just wanted to get in on some SF +7.5 early as a hedge/middle then look to hammer KC ML or -1. Im down on teasers for the year though so honestly its prob all -EV