lol wait are you thremp? An interest in health and fitness AND sports betting with a bizarre infatuation with me?? Why would you hide behind a random username?

Ive described a perfectly reasonable bet where the money is escrowed and the judges are unbiased. Ill even take the hand deliver part out since I know youd never do that.

Either take this bet or go back to CRUSHING n0obs on forums

poogs, did you ever say why you offered $300?

not like, the canned ‘bc the forum went down’ response, deep down was it really that? i’m curious bc if so, you’re low-key saying i wouldn’t track the bets accurately.

i’d be confident making bets with you and #teampoogs generally, but maaan what were you thinking about when you sent that??

I've had enough of people in this community saying that they're in this game for the lulz.

Poogs,

No. You're a known cheat. And there is ample evidence to make that claim. Your asinine dipshit bet is not acceptable. Accept mine or go back to um... whatever the **** you do?

Poogs admitted his wrongdoing, apologized, and as far as I know has gone on to a righteous life of gambling. You know in his past life, Paul was worse than a scammer. He persecuted the church with zeal and was there watching approvingly as Stephen was stoned. Yet he went on to become one of the greatest missionaries in the history of the Church. If God can forgive and transform Paul I think we can find it in our hearts to forgive Poogs or do you deem yourself above God?

I mean Ive addressed a bunch of times before but since its you wiper I will again...

yes that was a mistake and not the right thing to do. But go back and read that thread and what happened at the end. I think people forget that the entire forum went down when he had a few days left and was close to break even. I absolutely admit now that he won and I owed the money but it was sketchy at the end. Plus I really was on a motorcycle trip with my dad and brother seeing my old and sick grandmother in florida for the last time so I could barely even get online. I was getting bombarded with emails and I absolutely didnt handle it the right way. I got defensive, I probably fired off that email half drunk all pissed off in the middle of georgia in the middle of the night. Like I said, it was wrong and if I was on the other end id be pissed too. But I paid him in full, apologized and stuck around still doing plenty of business on here.

And look at the fun it made! I didnt have to make that prop bet and I didnt have to stick around. I could make lots of random user names too and do nothing but comment on things that other men do.

So again...open bet for anyone. 5k escrowed, a panel of unbiased judges. We present our cases and we see if im a 'known stiff'

Agreed. My terms. TomG can escrow.

thremp,

No. Youre a known coward. And apparently an idiot. Are you really so autistic that you think a panel that includes iowa and noob would be unbiased to me?

Why would they be biased other than you being a known stiff?

im suggesting unbiased judges. I haven't even named one. Im suggesting a panel of judges that we agree on.

youre suggesting 3 specific people, one of which is in this thread and i proposed this bet to.

youre either an idiot or, more likely, you know youd lose and youre trying to back out without just disappearing. I dont know which is worse. But I know that anyone with a brain can see im right here. Want to bet on who won this exchange?

Sure. What are the terms? Your entire networth v single digit % of mine? Who judges? A bunch of dipshits of your own choosing who have never accomplished anything?

Would you like to delve into a more esoteric bet? Your rep v mine? We can even have a party we both know judge! He was really mad at me for years too!

what if we use the Chinese social score as a ranking metric

With or without Twitter addendum module?

omfgggg

also, what kinda person doesn’t like poogs? afaict, his main negative quality is getting drawn into these dick-waving arguments.

there's only one person with the knowledge and integrity to judge this fairly and that is justin7. to be honest, though it sounds even worse than serving on jury duty

well good luck on calling elihu,last news from him was that he is betting tennis doubles for 30k

i wouldn t ever get out of the computer if i was justing,knowing that pin has them at 88 eur max and grand slam final had it at a couple of K

well jury duty doesn't pay very much either but it's our civic duty and i know based on his background that justin7 has too much respect for the law to turn this down

Is that similar to the part where if the alleged allegations against him are true he would be disbarred?

Why don't we have an adult discussion about how a CDF is a crude estimate for estimating anything discrete?

Seems dumb.

Maybe Poogsy will have something valuable to say. Allegedly he is the world's expert on props who somehow can't be Greek openers. And apparently has educated the world's leading hockey handicapper on basic elements of evolving Corsi. (Aside from the fact that dipshit is using ML in a terrible way. Thinks Sigs expounded on this earlier. Just throw a bunch of **** against the wall and bag it. k.)

you can use a CDF for discrete or continuous random variables. see ch2 of any probability textbook or ch1 of a real analysis or measurement theory textbook

if it's discrete you take the summation of the probability mass function for x <= X to get the CDF F(X). Basically P(X>50) is just the proportion of data points > 50 in your PMF. Just generate thousands of outcomes.

continuous use integration on the probability density function from negative infinity to x to produce the CDF F(X). Big difference is because of integration P(X = 50) doesn't exist (integral from 50 to 50 = 0). But there are ways to calculate it using limits

Sigs,

When you move beyond Stats 101 you can understand that using that as an estimation is totally fine in most cases... like poisson for single counting props!

In reality, maybe not so much. Cause umm... there inherent conversion issues that are glossed over in a basic intro class. Kinda like how fungibility is described in examples with money or oil. But neither are actually.

Good to actually have a real convo tho!

Is this basically the same conversation where people don't understand that a simple linear regression will almost always give better results than a comprehensive general(ized) linear model?

Maybe I'm the only not crazy person here. Who knows.

yes those are not things you consider in the modeling fitting stage and just ruins cdf

and when i analyze data i love making the assumptions of linear regression like homoscedasticity, linearity, independence of errors, etc. and agree it is a far superior method than processes that were developed specifically to address the short falls of simple linear regression

shutting down all my models ASAP and registering for a stats 102 course on udemy. hopefully i will fix all of this before next baseball season

The assumptions only apply if you're doing inference, and seems to me most sports betting applications are pure prediction, so the assumptions can be violated.