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Originally Posted by Mihkel05
For those following along at home. A brief explanation of why ROI is dumb and not used by any professionals.
ROI is simply the amount of money you return divided by money at risk. (So this would not include no actions, but would include pushes.) Expected ROIs can range wildly from -100% upwards of 1000%, it is still relatively trivial to find 100% ROI bets routinely. However, the problem with high ROI bets is that mathematically they need to be attached to longer odds which limits their potential for kelly growth. (This is basic math.) Furthermore, in order to retain a high ROI, you may decide to stop betting lower ROI, but still +EV bets. This is why every single pro just cares about how much you can make. No one is interested in 10% ROI player props, but are very interested in 1% ROI NFL closers. Ultimately all this metrics are for the sole purpose of making the most money as possible. (Which distills all your skills into one easy to understand number.) A terrible poker analogy would be would you rather be interested in listening to some guy ranting about his 10PTBB/100 at NL10 or the guy who made 3 million at an unknown PTBB/100.
This is all pretty obvious and basic math/logic. But I know the recs sometimes wanna get a little bit more of an understanding.
NB: This single post probably has contributed more to the knowledge of people who want to learn about sportsbetting than everything SwoopAE has ever posted.
Been loitering for a while, but just couldn't resist registering in order to comment on this thread.
"ROI is dumb and not used by any professionals". You are speaking absolute s***. Whilst clearly there exists a market/stake size/ROI evolution for most professional gamblers (prop-->main/$xxx--->$xxxxxxx/>7%---><3%), to merely class any measure of ROI as "dumb and not used by any professionals", suggests to me that you are either a) full of s*** & absolutely not a professional, or b) a troll.
You think that StarLizard, Smartodds, FootballRadar etc. would agree with you?
Swoop - Unfortunately, it seems that Mihkel05 is just one bad smell that I can't see going away anytime soon. I guess he's made his million(s) and can now sit back and spend his (valuable) time trolling on here