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Old 09-04-2014, 12:37 AM   #1
Sirbustalotz
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Question Local Bookie Parlays

Hello so this question might have been answered before but if so I couldnt find any information on this. Well my local bookie hands out parlay cards probably the same ones you guys have always seen. I get mine from him on tuesdays for the college/nfl games for the week. By the time the games come out some of the lines have changed as much as 7 points and theres usually a handful that have atleast changed by 4-5. I know playing parlay cards are usually -ev but if you wait for the lines to change and bet on the opposite side of it could it be +ev? For example this week bookie had dallas at 7 points and its down to 5 1/2 at my sportsbook. This line isnt changed enough im sure but what about other ones that change 4+ points is there value in parlaying these in 2 teamers or what?
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Old 09-04-2014, 12:50 AM   #2
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

This will need a long response. Let's first start with what odds are offered on the parlay card for each # of teams selected, and whether or not ties reduce or lose.
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Old 09-04-2014, 12:55 AM   #3
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

3 teams 5 points
4 teams 40
5 20

im also pretty sure he offers 2 teams paying i think 2.5-1 but im not 100% sure also ties make you lose unfortunately. But Im sure I could find a local that doesnt make me lose on ties. Im just trying to figure out if its possible with a local bookie with standard parlay odds if you can get +ev parlays while looking for the teams that the point spread has changed a ton.
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Old 09-04-2014, 07:55 AM   #4
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Any advice is appreciated :P
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Old 09-04-2014, 09:28 PM   #5
Sirbustalotz
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

no ideas?
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Old 09-04-2014, 11:37 PM   #6
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

not that hard to figure out broseph
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Old 09-04-2014, 11:59 PM   #7
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

1. Bet correlated parlays if he lets you

2.???

3. Free money

(or, use the search function. Here's a tip: drop-downs are your friend)
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Old 09-05-2014, 01:05 AM   #8
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

He doesnt do totals on college football on parlays what other correlated ones could i do?
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Old 09-05-2014, 01:50 AM   #9
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Ok fellas so heres the 3 teamer im thinking of playing it loses on ties and pays 5-1

Toledo +10 (Is +3.5 online at most sites now)
Tennessee +7 (NFL GAME) (Is +3 at most sites online now)
BYU +3.5 (Online byu is -1 point instead of getting 3.5 at most sites now)

So I was also considering this team also instead of one of the above but didnt think it would pay more but if you guys tell me it does ill take one off and add this one.

New Mexico State +2.5 (Online they are spotting -2)
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Old 09-05-2014, 01:59 AM   #10
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz View Post
He doesnt do totals on college football on parlays what other correlated ones could i do?
Those are where most of your opportunities will come from. Try runline/puckline and total in the same game, or half time/full game lines in the same game if he offers them.

Also try betting series price+game 1 of series for MLB regular or postseason, or any sport I guess that he offers series lines on.

Try to find another out, or ask him if he can offer college totals on parlays if you refer some friends or up your bets or something. Idk. Maybe even ask him if he knows anyone that does offer college totals on parlays, "for a friend" and then proceed from there.

Most locals offer correlated stuff, maybe not the super obvious stuff but almost every one I've dealt with offers some exploitable correlated action.
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Old 09-05-2014, 02:04 AM   #11
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Another thing to try: Chasing steam. Watch live lines and bet them if he's slow on moving the lines. A lot of games move wildly in the last 15 minutes.

If he offers props of any kind these are likely easily exploitable.

See if his teasers adjust for possible Wong opportunities. Be careful here though. Not sure if they're blindly +ev anymore in NFL, and I don't think they ever were +ev at all in college.

See if he shades any lines for or against the hometown team and bet accordingly.

Check his teaser and parlay odds. Some locals offer +ev odds on things like 2 team 6 pt teasers. It's rare but I'm sure a random bookie somewhere will offer wrong odds on parlays too. Takes 2 seconds to check his odds and makes you look like a donk who wants to bet parlays, he won't remember that you asked for prices just that you're a possible sucker who may bet exotics.

Search for the well posts and start reading. Rsigley has a good one, there are many others as well.
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Old 09-05-2014, 02:05 AM   #12
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Also check halftime/quarter line and other derivatives. Some bookies are lazy and just divide the game spread and total by 2 and deal it as a first half line.
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Old 09-05-2014, 02:07 AM   #13
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz View Post
Ok fellas so heres the 3 teamer im thinking of playing it loses on ties and pays 5-1

Toledo +10 (Is +3.5 online at most sites now)
Tennessee +7 (NFL GAME) (Is +3 at most sites online now)
BYU +3.5 (Online byu is -1 point instead of getting 3.5 at most sites now)

So I was also considering this team also instead of one of the above but didnt think it would pay more but if you guys tell me it does ill take one off and add this one.

New Mexico State +2.5 (Online they are spotting -2)
Sign up for a 5Dimes account and log in to view their lines, then use the dropdown boxes. They give adjusted odds, especially for national TV games, that you can use to approximate your edge.

Generally, moving off the 3 and 7 are pretty valuable. Moving from 10 to 3.5 is a huge move, moving from +3.5 to -1 is big, moving from +2.5 to -2 is meh, you don't cross any key numbers, and crossing the 0 is overrated.

I guess it's better than just "meh" but don't get caught up in crossing the 0. For example I don't think going from -2 to +1 is enough to overcome the huge edge on a parlay card, but going from +3.5 to +1 might be.

I'd suggest checking out Sharp Sports Betting and Weighing The Odds in Sports betting as well. Buy both on Amazon for like $30 combined and start reading.
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Old 09-05-2014, 02:57 AM   #14
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Thanks a ton somalia any other input on my possible parlay from others is welcomed.
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Old 09-08-2014, 12:27 AM   #15
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

parlay didnt hit this week ill post the new one as soon as i get it this upcoming one
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Old 09-09-2014, 04:26 PM   #16
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz View Post
Ok fellas so heres the 3 teamer im thinking of playing it loses on ties and pays 5-1

Toledo +10 (Is +3.5 online at most sites now)
Tennessee +7 (NFL GAME) (Is +3 at most sites online now)
BYU +3.5 (Online byu is -1 point instead of getting 3.5 at most sites now)

So I was also considering this team also instead of one of the above but didnt think it would pay more but if you guys tell me it does ill take one off and add this one.

New Mexico State +2.5 (Online they are spotting -2)
wtf I've seen my fair share of ridiculous locals but getting 10 when market is at 3.5 is unfathomable. does he take straight bets or only parlays?
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Old 09-09-2014, 05:05 PM   #17
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

As has been stated above, you will have to do some math to figure out if betting a 3-team parlay with a 5/1 payout is +EV. At standard -110 prices, the true odds of a 3-teamer are ~7-1, so you are already at a significant disadvantage (legit sportsbooks pay 6-1, and even then they are raking in money hand over fist).

Basically, you have to figure out if any of the movements in the lines have been so significant that your true odds of winning are greater than 20%. That would mean that each leg of the parlay would have to win at least 60% of the time, so your edge would need to be 10% on each wager. As noted, you can figure out your edge using the dropdowns from a number of sites, but if you are outside the US, Pinnacle is the best.
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Old 09-09-2014, 05:07 PM   #18
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
wtf I've seen my fair share of ridiculous locals but getting 10 when market is at 3.5 is unfathomable. does he take straight bets or only parlays?
Seems that these are parlay cards with stale lines where you can only bet parlays. Any book (legit or otherwise) would DK or limit you so severely that it wouldn't be worth your while if he was offering straight bets at those prices.
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Old 09-11-2014, 01:52 AM   #19
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Poogs View Post
wtf I've seen my fair share of ridiculous locals but getting 10 when market is at 3.5 is unfathomable. does he take straight bets or only parlays?
This guy is probably the biggest guy in my state he has an underground website and does hundreds of thousands of dollars in business each week if not more. He hands out his parlay cards on Tuesdays and I usually can find some pretty good spots. His website lines however are pretty accurate with what you can find online. The guy who runs it must know his **** because his previous stuff was pretty awsome where you could do correlated parlays and what not. Now I cant find any thing that looks +ev on his website but parlays still seem like a good spot to me.
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Old 09-11-2014, 10:59 PM   #20
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz View Post
This guy is probably the biggest guy in my state he has an underground website and does hundreds of thousands of dollars in business each week if not more. He hands out his parlay cards on Tuesdays and I usually can find some pretty good spots. His website lines however are pretty accurate with what you can find online. The guy who runs it must know his **** because his previous stuff was pretty awsome where you could do correlated parlays and what not. Now I cant find any thing that looks +ev on his website but parlays still seem like a good spot to me.
When correct odds for a three team parlay are slightly over 6/1 with ties reducing and you are paying 4/1 with ties lose a couple of games being off a few points is no big deal. Even if you played nothing but the games that were off like that I doubt you win long term.
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Old 09-13-2014, 03:52 AM   #21
Sirbustalotz
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Didnt say any glaring mistakes this week other then the New England game because of peterson so not posting one this week. Also kdog the parlay pays 5-1 dunno if that makes a differnece in whether I could win betting on these situations or not.
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Old 09-13-2014, 06:41 AM   #22
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz View Post
Didnt say any glaring mistakes this week other then the New England game because of peterson so not posting one this week. Also kdog the parlay pays 5-1 dunno if that makes a differnece in whether I could win betting on these situations or not.
He's assuming they pay 5 FOR 1, which they probably do.
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Old 09-13-2014, 06:44 AM   #23
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by kdog View Post
When correct odds for a three team parlay are slightly over 6/1
+595.8

/nit
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Old 09-14-2014, 07:56 PM   #24
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

hit my 3 teamer this week. took wvu new england and houston but found out the bookie doesnt return my 50$ bet and just pays the 250 back to me on a 3 teamer. Probably wont play again after finding that out. Put the 50 up front and he says i only get a total of 250 back.
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Old 09-15-2014, 11:02 AM   #25
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Re: Local Bookie Parlays

Quote:
Originally Posted by RickySteve View Post
He's assuming they pay 5 FOR 1, which they probably do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sirbustalotz View Post
hit my 3 teamer this week. took wvu new england and houston but found out the bookie doesnt return my 50$ bet and just pays the 250 back to me on a 3 teamer. Probably wont play again after finding that out. Put the 50 up front and he says i only get a total of 250 back.
.
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