incredible day, especially considering that there was no lck games today and the book shut me out for one of the LPL maps one that had all the classic team is behind but not that much and could steal a nashor (and it was the red team too which has a positional advantage for doing that steal) and sure enough they did it

so it would have been a massive day had the book had props up for me to bet for that map because there's no way I wouldn't have bet that chance at what the book usually posts at +700 to a max of +1250

also had a few bets that I got in and recorded on my spreadsheet but then while looking through the history failed to find them, fairly certain that they weren't accepted and I was too busy - both would have won too

low volume day but there were some absurdly juicy props in the DMO upset victory as the bookie held the pregame prop lines despite acknowledging DMO to be running away with it, i know i earlier made a rule but c'mon a team with a 4-1 kill lead and a 4k gold lead is getting 2 drakes 99.9% of the time and it was up there staring me in the face at -141 and the line was 1.5, they already had 1 and even if they totally imploded they'd have a decent chance at grabbing another

after launching three bets on it in quick succession, I was debating the pros and cons of max betting it when i noticed that DMO already took their 2nd drake uncontested...

day 11-8, +29.79u
total 439-462-13, +151.59u, 11.84% ROI

ha, i did get those bets in, they just weren't on the pending nor graded lists

still waiting on those pushes from last week though

13-8, +32.47u
441-462-13, +154.27, 12% ROI

jfc, had some sick dragon props available again, couldn't hedge via other side drakes but there was one for nashor

then when it later became possible to hedge drakes (both sides had o3.5 and o2.5 at plus odds) i really hammered those home

put me at a ton of liability in the event game went weird and it finished in a snap but both sides were pretty even

main props hit and even got the nashor hedge as well

pretty ecstatic

+49u after game one and this was after missing an earlier heavy drake bet with an equally heavy kill handicap hedge where i missed by .5 kills and would have easily gotten that last kill but other side gave up and didn't contest the end and watched their base get destroyed from afar to preserve their kill/death ratio stats

book was shut down for game one and gf wanted to go out so we went out for a walk, upon coming back caught tail end of map 2

for map 3 there wasn't too much on offer and then towards the end a bunch of juicy stuff popped up - actually really annoyed because it was like playing whack a mole and most of them were only up for seconds at a time and i'd often miss the window to execute, especially upset about the o/u 12.5 towers when both teams already had 3 each and it was at +120, that sadly didn't get through in time and would have been easy to hedge out later

day 10-10 +60.08u
total 451-473-13, +214.36u, +15.49% ROI

found an error in my sheet, the number used for the default unit size for calculating units wagered was the old number before those losses that was larger
so there has been a pretty significant change in terms of units
451-473-13 +251.32u, 17.35% ROI

today off to a terrible start, saw silly odds on a nashor prop bet, slammed in 2 units, accidentally added a zero due to sticky keyboard

worst part is i misread the prop bet as well because it was total nashors for the series not the upcoming map and they were already down 2-0 in nashors so they'd have to get two (something that rarely happens) in order to simply get me a push

rip 20 units on a single misclick, to rub salt in the wounds they got the most nashors, the bet i thought i was making, and almost got a 2nd to secure a push but they decided to just end it instead of getting that 2nd one as is often the case

spoke to support, fortunately did that before action commenced so there's a clear paper trail of instant regret before the action began and the bet size is way out of ordinary for me so there's hope it could become a stupid 2u loss over misreading a prop vs a monumentally stupid 20u loss

yikes

went on tilt and backed the truck up on on a o3.5 drake prop at -160 that looked pretty secure good had a great most drakes +1200 on the other side for a hedge

hedge bet didn't go through so a little freaked but then it ended up saving me money as they got the 4th drake with ease

beginning to think with all these hedges maybe betting with conviction with hedges is good - also sounds like famous last words

either way, back up 20u now on the day

zomg, although customer service hasn't responded to my email and i sort of undermined my "it was clearly an error given it's much larger than my normal bets" only to tilt shove one 3x larger

anyway, they've now been nulled, including the other 2u bets that i did with the 20u bets (one 2u hit for a lot too) but i'm unsure if it's because of my email or because i was betting on props for the series that normally close out before they start and these were already on map 3

anyway - after the tilt shove decided to not be betting anymore as was obviously tilting
2-4, +31.08u on the day
453-477-13, +282.4u, 18.37% ROI
wagered 1,537.24u total! just gotta find that rakeback

Traveling today so no bets

Acr responded telling me to suck in it, which is reasonable, but the bet was still cancelled anyway probably because it was never supposed to be live that late.

GF been meeting with investors and that's taken us around China lately, currently in Xi'an

don't imagine there will be any bets next few days, business time is over and now we'll be galavanting around to tourist spots and nightclubs

didn't mean to include the alibaba photo, meant to include this club we saw while walking the city wall, seems like an appropriate place to drink right now

put in a few last night when i got back, didn't go so well
5-14, -4.53u

currently putting in some action today as it's raining like crazy so it's a hotel day

still reeling from today, made a couple oversized bets that were hedged with correlation plays and wound up missing both

going to go back to square one and install set limits, tomorrow seeing terracotta warriors then flying back the day after so there'll be a few days without updates and some time to clear my head, look over the carnage and force myself to put in a max unit system since obviously those correlated hedges aren't as correlated as I'd have hoped

now more driven than ever to model this sucker out - sizing has been my achilles heel as while i'm pretty good at finding the good spots, i'm apparently terrible at properly assessing risk & corresponding bet size in the 30 second window I have to make a wager between the prop appearing and getting closed out (they always shut it down before big objectives like drakes and at the start of team fights so there's rarely more than a minute or so in between these events)

had a dream to build up roll to start making max limit a standard bet but gotta put that on the backburner for now and resume the slow and steady approach until I actually know what I'm doing

could help if this was about Dota

Great thread Keep it up and good luck !

thanks for the support guys, sometimes it feels like i'm just talking to myself but it's a good process to keep myself honest - not gonna lie, pretty emotionally crushed today - didn't even think of whereas normally it's something i plan my time around

scouted out the first game but the book didn't have much available and when it post something i liked i wasn't fast enough to act - honestly though it didn't bug me, certainly reminding me of the times i took shots in poker and having that scared money mentality - which is absurd because i can always just bet happy meal stakes

anyway finally updated the sheets for the meltdown the other day, just put down a few units at pretty good odds on RW despite them being terrible based off draft and while too early, it's looking good and they are up to a big lead - but they are pretty terrible and have done this plenty of times only to do something really stupid later on and essentially throw the game

the other day's results:
12-13, -70.8u (not going to lie, genuinely considered downplaying this to save myself from the embarrassment
on the year:
470-504-13, +207u, 11.55% ROI

actually considering switching ROI calculation from units to real dollars, they were previously pretty close but given how much my roll had gone up from the beginning, my real dollar ROI is now half as big with that huge loss and standing at 5.5%

would deeply appreciate any feedback into whether i should count unit ROI or dollar ROI, also whether or not I should consider pending action in the unit calculation as part of the bankroll

honestly though, feels a lot better typing this out, can admit mistakes were made and move on with a very expensive lesson learned - seems my earlier lessons in humility weren't enough

just fantastic day, wasn't able to get much volume in because no lck today and the earlier lpl lines would just flash for a few seconds whenever they popped up and it'd take too long to figure out whether to take any stances before they closed

but then in the 2nd matchup of the night featured a mid level team against the worst team in the league - by mid draft everyone was just focused on how bad they were but i kept on looking at the team comps and scratching my head why nobody else was talking about how strange the LGD drafts were and how traditional the RW drafts were

in the past when one team took a strange line and allowed for the other team to take that obvious pick/counter i always gave them the benefit of doubt - i assumed they must know what they are doing and have a plan in place, they didn't ban the 98% ban character and allowed them to take him because they have a plan to neutralize them etc - however, i lost a few sklansky units by holding off in those situations because i believed in the bigger meta that we in the audience couldn't see - I was deeply wrong - occasionally there are shifts towards new champions etc but this only happens after each new patch, this was no new patch

while the LGD draft in general was a bit odd, the strangest thing was they built it around a hero named jhin, someone who's main strength is picking off enemies from long distance, this is good where teams are passive and just doing 2v2, 3v2 type fights where he can execute the other side as they back away but on the flip side he's easily countered by just walking up close and thus is a really bad champ to pick outside of very specific situations and this was not one of them as RW specifically had a bunch of guys who's special abilities was getting up in your grill

so with hesitation, i put in the only bets I could mid draft draft, 1.3u on RW most towers +308, 1.3u on RW most kills +239, .74u on RW +5.5 Towers -111, & .94u o11.5 Towers -141

never got another chance to keep it up as RW took a massive early lead and since the book won't open most lines until a few minutes into play, all those lines were pretty bad to keep hammering and yet not good enough to bet the other side, they soon closed them out entirely and RW won

then in map2, LGD and RW proceeded to draft near identical teams to last game and i backed up the truck (with my new limits ie no more 20u bets on a single drake prop), spreading everything out in mostly small bets with 3 of them at about 3 units each that were still very gettable even if they ended up playing their normal self

main idea was to bet lines that were plausible even if RW lost and also not get tied to a specific prop where the read is right but actually too good of a read and they win so easily they don't even get enough drakes to hit the prop

these are the 3 big ones i took stands on though of about 3 units each

RW o1.5 - only way they weren't getting this was if they totally dominated and even then steals were possible since they were on blue side - definitely in the realm of possibility they got 1 or less and appropriately priced at -160 but given overwhelming draft advantage

o10.5 kills -120 - I'd actually put in a few units on this before the draft even started because it was such an absurdly low total as they already average 13 per game against much better competition so this seemed like a lock, the old me would have backed up the truck on this but new me only sprinkled in another 3 units after seeing it was oddly still open after draft (normally can only do kill o/u pre draft)

RW +.5 Nashors +168 - this seemed fine because they could lose the game but still get this either getting blown out before any nashors were taken or in 1-1 matchup, and the odds were absurd, normally both sides of this are negative in the early going because these things are very much a coin flip

RW then win, of course they didn't make it look easy since they suck but it was a nice day - only bet to lose was a half unit done pre draft on lgd o16.5 kills

day: 25-1, +38.2u
total: 495-505-13, +245.22u, 13.44% uROI, 4.4% $ROI (earlier $roi formula had a bug, was not the 5.5% i earlier mentioned)

stats look good, but having built that roll up and basically drop back down again to where i was a ways back is still pretty demoralizing and doesn't show up in the data - seems the valley of despair found in poker and dfs extends to this field as well

yesterday wasn't able to get much action in, was a bit preoccupied reviving my golf model and the book for the most part was pretty much closed, most of the action i was able to get in before the start of the VG vs JDG game as JDG is pretty passive in the early stages, VG isn't and VG had plus odds on a bunch of early game props so bet em lightly

there was one spot that looked pretty good and instead of backing the truck up just bet 3 units with a small hedge to cover and only hedge hit

day 16-21 +.65u

today was more of the same, basically got no action in at all on LPL as book was basically closed the entire time, did get some nice bets in on the LCK though

10-8, +12.42u (hit a monster nashor hedge that went up from +700 to +950 as i bet it so ended up being more than a hedge and actually the preferred bet)

overall 522-536-13, +257.3u, 13.71% uROI, 4.79% $ROI

these stats are going to change, for a while my own records conflicted with the book's records and I just assumed it was stuff that was still waiting to be graded as that can sometimes take a little longer than usual, but under further review, I found some fairly large bets of mine that I graded as pushes I found were graded as losses by the book, so going to appeal and if i lose then that record will drop a bit and by minus a few more units

but first going to go over every single bet i have made and check to see if they were graded correctly... and of course they don't have a simple csv export or anything like that fml

btw also i discovered I'm using a skin of bookmaker, if someone knows a good way to pull results from there and check for correct grades please let me know

will update soon enough, in the meantime i'm still betting but the books are giving less and less action, sometimes only open for seconds at a time and often can't get in anything at all on BM

in the meantime, going through entire play history and confirming everything was recorded by me and correctly graded by them etc has been a nightmare but very fulfilling and already found a bunch of bets i didn't realize were cancelled or had gone through twice or i just put in and forgot to record

it's also been nice reviewing previous play, one thing i noticed is in the early days I had no problem betting teams at -300 to -500 and now I'm pretty much in the opposite direction - i think i got influenced witnessing enough upsets to never want to put money in on heavy favorites and that's probably a leak

also noticed i'm much more emotionally invested now, much more apt to bet on the team i like rather than the team that's the better option - i never have this issue in dfs for 100x higher stakes so I'm legit concerned about my own mental leaks in this venture and have 100% noticed the other side is probably correct but convince myself of a narrative and go for that +200 when I should instead be hammering the other half for -260 instead

something to work on, thankfully been chatting more with others while doing this and that helps detach me a bit hearing outside perspective from people who's opinions i respect helps me drop the "but i like this team because 3 months they did this really cool thing" mentality i've been abusing lately

hope to have my database sorted out over the weekend, lost a little bit overall since i stopped daily posting but will come back with a full accounting

also discovered a unit size calculation bug in my excel, not for the actual amount while i was betting it but for the amount when calculating units won/lost - hadn't noticed it because my holistic sportsbetting calculation doesn't have the bug, just did something weird when converting it over to review lol only results

so there'll be a new roi win loss record when it's done for posting (i've caught up to beginning of this month and have bet many things for token amounts so it's a lot of hassle but it's been killing me spotting a slight difference for months because it meant something was wrong with the sheet) so glad i'm fixing it

still updating records, so no major update yet

today was a massive day though and getting better at learning to not force in action - ran so hot in the early days I'm now looking for things to hit rather than taking time to focus and really consider the odds of it occuring vs current line on offer - gotta start viewing the props closing out/not being able to bet as neutral occurences and not feel the need to rush/jam in questionable bets

the main reason for this delay in the new data is that sports are now back and work has been crazy so there's been little time spent past week or so not spent modeling, working or watching lol and live betting

something just happened today that i'm super proud of as well, finished the season with a big finish and finished third overall in the yahoo cup also finished 7th in NBA last year (31st thus far this year) and usually finish in the top 500 or better. it's doesn't really get much hype, but i think it's a very good measurement because it's a freeroll series meaning everyone is in it and it's cumulative over the course of the season. Although there's a long tail of uber casual entrants who may not even submit a lineup each week, it's still a pretty big group nonetheless with the soccer one just finishing being 30k deep and the NBA one last year where I was 7th was 270k deep.

pretty elated, especially since I was outside the top 20 pre covid and just crushed it last few months to finish the season, last year in NBA was the opposite as I was in first place and fell to 4th then 7th in final two matchups because I guessed incorrectly which unknown g leaguer would get 40 minutes - really hate the season extended into the garbage weeks but what can you do

hope to have a full accounting within a day or two - although baseball is just getting started, now without soccer for a month and a half should be a little more focused on cleaning up my data

have any of your friends on this forum messaged you about your reasoning/logic?

this road only leads to depression my friend

quit while you are ahead

lol i have the same thoughts, still going strong and plugging a lot of leaks BM just a motherffer about results exports so going through database of thousands of prior results still to confirm things are graded same way i graded them

will start posting again soon but yeah i agree i've been super sloppy about this and need to tighten up

still way up overall and frankly i think it's a good exercise to use this process to find and plug leaks before i ever considered putting real money into sportsbetting

You ever arbitrage NBA live betting? I feel like so many times, and I have no stats to prove this, that most times a team is up by 10 the other team end up taking a lead at some point. Would be interesting to see if you could just bet on a team when they're down by 7-8 and then possibly take the other side if the game switches.

no i haven't gotten into that sort of thing, it may be worth looking into, but my best guess is that it'll be tough to beat the vig

one thing i've noticed for certain is that BM has definitely upgraded their LOL system as lately there's been literally nothing to bet because everything looks bad due to the massive vig and then there's been a few times where a team was winning dramatically, a situation where the line would normally be unbettable or at like -2000 but for some crazy reason it's sitting on -340 so you bet on it, a minute later it closes, you pat yourself on the back for catching the bad line before they took it down and then less than a minute later there's a very improbable turnaround

it's at the point where I've decided modeling and getting data via api feed is the way to go from here on out because in the course of a few months it's gone from absurdly easy to downright difficult and even dare i say a bit angly imo as a few times those absurdly bad lines came up there was a crazy change of direction shortly after

right now it's on break anyway and been focused elsewhere but will go through the final tally before next season starts and continue to post updates

Rick baby, somewhat unrelated question. You've been living in China so long now it seems, do you get home sick?
Have you become a naturalized Chinese citizen?
Could you ever go back to dating a white woman again?
More questions pending.