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Old 02-12-2020, 08:22 PM   #1
DefNotRsigley
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Nascar 2020 Season

I figured instead of clogging the Crowdsource thread I'd move it over here.

TomG and I spent a combined 200+ hours plowing through data and it's possible we could be profitable. Any news, notes, picks, etc. lets move them here.

There's four main bets.
Duels (usually on Thursday)
Trucks (Friday or Saturday)
X-Finity (Usually Saturday)
Main race (Sunday)

Limit vary, but in the past ~1k on Main race and $250-$500 on others.

Here's what we had for the clash.

Spoiler:


And here's what we have for the duel so far.

Duel #1
Ryan Preece -115 over Christopher Bell
Chris Buescher -115 over Ryan Newman
Clint Bowyer -115 over Aric Almirola
Brad Keselowski -115 over Denny Hamlin
Martin Truex Jr +100 over Chase Elliott
Ryan Blaney -115 over Martin Truex Jr.
Ryan Blaney -115 over Chase Elliott
Joey Logano -115 over Denny Hamlin

Duel #2
Michael McDowell +100 over Cole Custer
Tyler Reddick -115 over Cole Custer
Erik Jones +100 over Jimmie Johnson
Kevin Harvick +100 over Kyle Busch
Kyle Larson -115 over Alex Bowman
Kurt Busch -115 over Byron
Kurt Busch -115 over DiBenedetto
Ty Dillon -115 over Corey LaJoie

I'm expecting the variance on the "To Win" is going to be huge. So we could be -20u fairly quick, but one or two wins will get us into the black. (or vice versa, an early bink or two could misrepresent the ROI going forward)
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Old 02-12-2020, 10:50 PM   #2
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Couple more

Duel #1
Darrell Wallace +100 over Austin Dillon

Joey Logano +500 to Win Duel #1
Kevin Harvick +685 to Win Duel #2
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:14 PM   #3
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Keselowski is reporting issues with his car this morning. If you haven’t bet him over Hamlin I would skip that one. It might also cause issues for Logano and Blaney since they’re all teammates but small issues.
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:17 PM   #4
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

So the duels are qualifying races for the daytona 500? Or are they actual races too?
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:28 PM   #5
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Sorta both. Some people in the race have already qualified and they're just trying to improve their position. Some haven't qualified and this is how they can get in. Daniel Suarez and Reed Sorenson are probably the biggest names in the duel who haven't qualified.

I feel this is more of a qualitative handicapping race. Teams tend to work together, car manufacturers tend to pit together, and people usually drive in a straight line for most of the race. Usually someone will lead for ~60% of the race and then it comes down to the first and last couple of laps and getting off pit road (which benefits the better teams). It's not like regular Daytona where they all race really close and crash every ten laps.

A lot of the teams with only one car will hang to the back and do nothing since they're driving the cars they're using in the 500 and don't want to crash them. Someone like Ryan Blaney didn't qualify well and since he's starting 14th, he should be more aggressive to improve his spot. He made changes to his car in the last couple of days to better his chances to move up. So if you're playing DFS or something he should be lock buttoned. But also good for any h2h. Blaney also has several teammates in the race who can help him or he will team up with the other Fords in the race.

Same with duel 2. Kurt Busch and Kyle Larson should team up and move up spots making them good for h2h. The second duel has a lot of rookies and I wouldn't be surprised if they all hit the brakes, get to the back, and then just ride in a straight line. A rookie doesn't want to destroy his only car before the biggest race and they can't really compete against the bigger teams at the 500, so position doesn't matter much for them. That will move up people like Ty Dillon, Larson, Kurt Busch, etc.

Also if you can find any h2h involving Stenhouse or Bowman, just fade them. They already clinched the pole and historically what happens in these races is they will lead the race for ten or so laps, pit for fuel, and then go into last place to avoid picking up debris on their cars.
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:52 PM   #6
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

great info, thanks.

Im rolling with you:

Logano to win duel 1: +500
Harvick to win duel 2: +400
Kurt Busch to win duel 2: +800
Kyle Larson to win duel 2: +1200


Also what do you think about this bet? Havent seen it anywhere else:

Manufacture to win Daytona 500
Chevy: +150
Ford: +120
Toyota: +175
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Old 02-13-2020, 07:07 PM   #7
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Thank you for your support. Have to wait for the field to be set.

Here's a freebie if you haven't gotten it already.

Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 Race Matchups - Chris Buescher -115 - (Ryan Newman vrs Chris Buescher)

Ryan Newman is being moved to the back of the race due to unapproved adjustment. So instead of him being in 8 vs. Buescher 10, now it's Buescher 10 and Newman 22.

We were on it already, but always nice to get some help.
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Old 02-13-2020, 09:41 PM   #8
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Duel #1 going as planned. Stenhouse led, pitted, went to the back, Fords in spot 1-8 and helping each other out, racing in a line now.

Easy game. Incoming 0-27 for -27u

lol right after Blaney and Suarez get in a huge wreck. So guaranteed 0-2.
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:26 PM   #9
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Duel #1

Ryan Preece -115 over Christopher Bell LOSS -1.15
Chris Buescher -115 over Ryan Newman LOSS -1.15
Clint Bowyer -115 over Aric Almirola LOSS -1.15
Brad Keselowski -115 over Denny Hamlin WIN +1
Martin Truex Jr +100 over Chase Elliott WIN +1
Ryan Blaney -115 over Martin Truex Jr. LOSS -1.15
Ryan Blaney -115 over Chase Elliott LOSS -1.15
Joey Logano -115 over Denny Hamlin WIN +1
Darrell Wallace +100 over Austin Dillon WIN +1
Duel #1: 4-5 -1.75u on 10.05u risked

Joey Logano +500 to Win Duel #1 WIN +5u

For some reason Stenhouse tried to win even though it makes no sense. Buescher got screwed since he pitted during red and had to go to the back. Fords took all the top spots

Lets get this Duel #2
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Old 02-13-2020, 11:50 PM   #10
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Harvick led for most of it and lost it on the last lap and then Kurt Busch got blocked. -0.05u combined in the duels.

We will get them tomorrow with them trucks. The qualifying isn't until 3pm eastern, a couple hours before the race. So picks will be close to start.

Duel #2
Michael McDowell +100 over Cole Custer LOSS -1
Tyler Reddick -115 over Cole Custer LOSS -1
Erik Jones +100 over Jimmie Johnson LOSS -1
Kevin Harvick +100 over Kyle Busch WIN +1
Kyle Larson -115 over Alex Bowman WIN +1
Kurt Busch -115 over Byron LOSS -1.15
Kurt Busch -115 over DiBenedetto LOSS -1.15
Ty Dillon -115 over Corey LaJoie WIN +1
3-5 -2.3u on 8.75u risked

Kevin Harvick +685 to Win Duel #2 LOSS -1

Total:
H2H: 11-12 -2.2u on 25.4u risked (-8.66% ROI)
To Win: 1-5 +0u on 6u risked (0% ROI)
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:25 PM   #11
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

hey you made me 200 bucks yesterday sigs. thanks
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Old 02-14-2020, 01:31 PM   #12
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Jimmie Johnson cheated us. He started blocking Harvick to help out his teammate and since he didn't want to crash he slowed down and ended up losing. If this was a regular race I bet Harvick would have won there.

Trucks qualifying is ends in 5 hours, then there's a 3 hour window before the real race. It takes about 15 minutes for my model to process all the new info after its official. Losers soon!
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Old 02-14-2020, 07:09 PM   #13
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Does anyone see any Trucks lines? The race is 90 minutes out and nothing. I saw them earlier in the week
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Old 02-14-2020, 08:11 PM   #14
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

On 5d right? I see a truck option with lines up, yeah.
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Old 02-14-2020, 08:12 PM   #15
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Can't find any To Win's, but just a heads up the chance every Truck in this race crashes is close to 100%
All -115
Austin Wayne Self over Spencer Boyd
Ben Rhodes over Matt Crafton
Christian Eckes over Zane Smith
Stewart Friesen over Grant Enfinger

If you're doing DFS I'd stack the Trucks in the back (low 20s) since the ones in the front will all crash and die.

No 5D for me. But I'm assuming the book I saw them at just copies the lines.
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Old 02-14-2020, 08:27 PM   #16
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

No idea, what this is, but tailed it for kicks. 250$ limits on 5d, bet 100 on each.

2/14/2020 7:30 PM Trucks Motor Racing 6685 Stewart Friesen* -115 vs Grant Enfinger
Risking $115.00 To Win $100.00
2/14/2020 7:30 PM Trucks Motor Racing 8507 Christian Eckes* -115 vs Zane Smith
Risking $115.00 To Win $100.00
2/14/2020 7:30 PM Trucks Motor Racing 8510 Ben Rhodes* -115 vs Matt Crafton
Risking $115.00 To Win $100.00
2/14/2020 7:30 PM Trucks Motor Racing 8516 Austin Wayne Self* -115 vs Spencer Boyd
Risking $115.00 To Win $100.00

Unibet has this list for outrights. Have an account there, but haven't used it in years.

https://www.unibet.com/betting/sport...ies/1006134738
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Old 02-14-2020, 09:51 PM   #17
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Austin Wayne Self hit someone's car and they went upside down about 10 laps in. Starting great.

https://twitter.com/TylerGiles38/sta...96661036568577
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:15 PM   #18
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Damn, hope he didn't take out any of the other bets with him. Are you actually watching the race rsig or just looking at updates?
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:16 PM   #19
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Watching in the sportsbook like a true degen. You?
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Old 02-14-2020, 10:34 PM   #20
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Haha, never watched Nascar. Was sort of flipping between a tennis match I bet on and this NBA stuff but not really watching either anymore. Did you end up taking the bets at the book; what sort of limits do they have live?

I did see this funny video about Nascar recently, made me laugh:

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Old 02-14-2020, 11:32 PM   #21
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

I'm thinking maybe skipping trucks. It averages about 5 accidents a race and seems too random.
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Old 02-14-2020, 11:40 PM   #22
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

How are we doing, did we lose another to a crash?
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Old 02-15-2020, 11:13 AM   #23
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Lol, not good. Good thing, I didn't go 250 on each. Was gonna put it in, but then thought, nah it's the first trucks race and it's probably somewhat unpredictable.

We'll look at it more like 690$ saved
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Old 02-15-2020, 02:30 PM   #24
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

Oh yea I'm horrible at this. I would not follow, but what can we do when we're looking at 3-1 with 2 laps to go and then someone hits one of our guys from behind and he takes out every single one of the guys we bet?

How do we model that?

Yesterday 0-4 -4.6u

Xfinity please no crashes

Justin Allgaier -115 over Chase Briscoe
Justin Allgaier -115 over Austin Cindric
Justin Allgaier -115 over Noah Gragson
Justin Allgaier -115 over Ross Chastain (Chastain is starting in the 23 spot for Green after not qualifying)
Austin Cindric -115 over Chase Briscoe
Harrison Burton -115 over Jeb Burton
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Old 02-15-2020, 02:36 PM   #25
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Re: Nascar 2020 Season

couple more

Austin Cindric -115 over Noah Gragson
Justin Haley -115 over Jeb Burton
Justin Allgaier +550 to Win
Austin Cindric +1100 to Win

I wonder how much effort books put into these lines. AJ Allmendinger didn't even qualify but they're posting h2h's with him. Do they even take into consideration starting position? If they did they would know that.
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