Kenpom's score predictions
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,886
Anyone ever looked at his score predictions (i.e. when you click on a team, it predicts the score of each of their remaining games) and compared them to the point spread?
I'm sure it wouldn't be a terrific system to use, otherwise people would be doing it already, but I'm curious as to see how accurate it is.
I typically consult with Kenpom after handicapping just to see what he thinks, and yesterday found myself on the other side with Portland State +2, when he had them losing by 8 at home to Northern Colorado. Portland State won by 15 or so, and I'm sure that if those two teams played 10 times it would be closer than that every time.
Just curious what the brains on this board think.
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,364
Don't do it. That prediction is done using a very high level formula, which ignores a whole lot of factors that impact outcomes. However, the basic information he spits out on each team is quite useful as a starting block.
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,886
Yeah, wasn't planning on wagering according to his predictions, I was just curious if anybody had paid attention to how they performed according to the point spreads in the past. Thanks Poof.
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 934
I take a look at the kenpom predictions and compare them to power ratings and other factors.