I'm wondering. Does anyone know approximately? Any help greatly appreciated.

35-40

Do you have any data to back that up? I'm going to work on pulling data from baseball reference to see the % value of a 0.5 H/R/E, but for now i'm just betting lines that are off from Pinny.

Mets/Marlins is currently O/U 26 -105/-115, and I have a local that posted O/U 25.5 +105/-135. The o 25.5 +105 is almost definitely good, but I'd like to be able to quantify how good, and also determine what the break-even price would be for playing o25.5 in this instance.

DTSTTCPW - https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...on-calculator/

You need a data base to get a good number. And I wouldnt go too crazy betting numbers that are off pinny. Thats far from an efficient market

While I appreciate the response, 35-40 seems wildly high.

Agreed, I believe the limits are like 3 figs at Pinny. But if it moves there and elsewhere and I have outs where it doesn't I figure getting down a small amount can't be too bad of an idea.

Not sure exactly what you're asking but may be of help

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/mlb/

RHE is total runs/hits/errors in a game betting.

If one site estimates 27.5 and another estimates 27, I'm wondering if anyone knows how many cents that's worth

(eg is o27.5 at -110 worth the same as o27 at -120?)

not sure what DTSTTCPW means but..

Would the poisson distribution be a good estimate for this even though it is not countable one at a time? (a home run or any sort of rbi hit)

As a very rough rule of thumb, I use the line as the chance it happens

so you hit exactly 27, one in 27 times, 3.7%.

so if over 27.5 is even ($2), over 27.0 should be 1/((0.5/0.963)),($1.926). So roughly 7.5c is what you would pay for 1/2 a point.


if 5 bookies all have o27.5 at -110, and another bookie has o27.0 at -110, you will still lose to vig.

even if getting exactly 27 happens 5%, you will only just break even.

what??

Yea no offense but that doesn't make a lot of sense.

First of all you need to figure out how often 27 RHE occurs. As a rough rule of thumb for lines less than 30 I often say that a specific total occurs 1/total times (this is only true for totals close to the even money line).

So for example if I am betting on over 6.5 assists for a certain player, I assume 7 assists occurs roughly 1 in 7 times or 14.28%.

if an nfl player has his total tackles line at Under 5.5, I assume he makes 5 tackles 1 in 5 times or 20%.

So ill assume that you get exactly 27 RHE one in 27 times or 3.7%.

If 27.5 is the correct line for the event, if a bookie makes no profit the price would be $2.00. If you were to bet on over 27.0, if exactly 27 occurs you get a refund.

Betting $100 on 27.5 at $2.00, you make $100 if the total is 28 or higher and lose otherwise. Betting $100 on over 27.0 means you win $100 for 28 or higher, get a refund for 27 and lose $100 otherwise.

If you assume that 27.5 is the fair value line and that 27 occurs 3.7%. Then betting on over 27.0 means you win 50%, you tie 3.7% and lose 46.3%.

setting EV =0, you get;

0=p*0.5-0.463, p=0.926. so you need a decimal price of 1.926 (-108) for over 27.0 to be a break even proposition.

so if $2.00 on over 27.5 is fair value then $1.926 (-108) for over 27.0 would be too.

So roughly a 1/2 point is worth 7.5c in decimal odds or 8c in american odds.

If a bookie normally offers -110 on even money lines and if 27.5 is the correct line then betting over 27.0 at -110 should be a negative EV proposition.

To figure out how often 27 must occur for the over 27.0 at -110 to be fair value, you need to set EV=0.

($0.91 is what you make per $1 bet at -110)
0 = 0.91*0.5-0.5+x, x=0.045

27 needs to occur exactly 4.5% for the over 27.0 line to be fair value at -110 given that 27.5 is the correct line.

dude...how much money have you lost betting using this logic?

I’ve won well into 6 figures.

What don’t you agree with?

well if you flip a fair coin there are two outcomes as a rough rule of thumb each one is 50/50 so it does hold. also works for dice.

No it doesnt, if you rolled a dice a fair bet would be over 3.5. With a dice each number is as likely as any other. But typically in sports data, numbers closer to the mean are more likely.

Russell Westbrooks line for rebounds is usually around 10.0, this season he has scored; 9 rebs-10/80games, 10rebs-11/80 and 11rebs- 8/80. averages to be 1 in 8.3

His assists line is usually round 10.0 too. This season he got 9 assists 12/80 games, 10 assists 7/80 and 11 assists 10/80 times. averages to be 1 in 8.3.

His points line is usually around 30; he got
28 points 2/80 games
29 points 2/80
30 points 5/80
31 points 4/80
32 points 3/80

Which averages to be 1 in 25.

The rough rule of thumb does hold for westbrooks stats.

I really, really doubt that. Maybe you fallen backwards into something that works, I dunno, but that is honestly a pretty insane way to go about capping props. I am no expert but assuming that there would be 27 HRE 1 times out of 27 because thats what the book happened to have as a line (I think thats what youre saying) seems outrageous to me. Do you even look at the players stats? Or you just go solely from what the book is offering?

In my initial post I did state that method was a rough rule of thumb. Of course use data and then models if necessary, I just couldnt be bother spending 3hrs going through MLB data to get an estimate marginally better than 7.5c.

It is a reasonable first order approximation when zero is a possible outcome.

For example, it fails on NBA totals.

When you're betting props, you don't have to be exact. You just have to get somewhere close, and you'll usually win with it.

This approach is a favorite to win against a non-sharp book that isn't copying props.

Thanks Justin. Im aware of the softness of non-sharp, non copying prop books. To say this "system" works because it would be a favorite at queeffartbook.ag is a little disingenuous I think. Almost ANY system works on those unicorn type books. And I took your advice; Im in the "do lots of props quickly" camp and even I still think what hes doing is horrendous and wouldnt be shocked if it were break even at best, even at the bovadas and SIAs of the world