02-07-2013 , 06:47 PM
For instance, if I bet on 1000 games and I feel my edge is 60%. What are the odds I win 600, and more importantly what are the odds of actually losing over those 1000 games.
02-07-2013 , 07:14 PM
Over 1000 games there will be one actual certainty. 60% is not possible.
02-07-2013 , 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nevowski69
Over 1000 games there will be one actual certainty. 60% is not possible.
Ok then let's say 55%. The percentage isn't really the point, it's the range of games you can win or lose if you're winrate is actually 55%
02-07-2013 , 07:31 PM
After 1000, I would say you would be close to your realistic win percentage. Be a hell of a rollercoaster getting there, though. Variance is high, but eventually it all regresses towards the mean.
02-07-2013 , 08:05 PM
i think rafiki is offering fourth grade math lessons for free you might try PMing him tho no guarantee he will get it right
02-07-2013 , 08:07 PM
Perhaps some people from the thread rafiki won can redeem themselves here.

edit, wow 2 min too late with same thread reference.
02-07-2013 , 08:26 PM
its a fine question op just stop being lazy and read wikipedia on confidence interval i actually donated to wikimedia foundation so its on me
02-07-2013 , 08:28 PM
02-07-2013 , 08:28 PM
haha remember when that was the pinnacle of an internet troll?

we've come a long way boys progress
02-07-2013 , 08:29 PM
Play around with a binomial distribution calculator. From there you can see that the probability of winning at least 500/1000 games with a 0.6 win rate is 0.9999999999. So your odds of winning the powerball are greater than the odds of losing 500+. I didn't factor in the vig, also as stated 0.6 is unrealistic if not impossible.

Assuming -110 odds, you will need to hit at least 524 out of 1000 to show a profit. The odds of that, assuming you can actually pick winners at a 55% clip, are about 95.4%
02-07-2013 , 08:31 PM
tomg should post more often. he's a winningly winning winner. he just winswinswinsnomatterwhat.

he puts your hands up. AND THEY STAY THERE.

since you're here tommy, how do i get the february chart to come up on the 2013 tomg excel sheet aka you fix it you broke it refer to wiper for fixing?
02-08-2013 , 01:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG
its a fine question op just stop being lazy and read wikipedia on confidence interval i actually donated to wikimedia foundation so its on me
CI makes no sense to use with traditional statistics
02-08-2013 , 01:56 AM
SORRY MEANT CREDIBLE INTERVAL YO UCAN READ MORE ABOUT IN WHILE LIVING AT THE SOUTH POLE
02-08-2013 , 02:53 AM
op take a look at the paper i wrote on markov models. it describes all of the statistical techniques i employ for sports betting.

http://www.2shared.com/document/0Bue...orationMM.html
02-08-2013 , 09:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by etothemc2
Play around with a binomial distribution calculator. From there you can see that the probability of winning at least 500/1000 games with a 0.6 win rate is 0.9999999999. So your odds of winning the powerball are greater than the odds of losing 500+. I didn't factor in the vig, also as stated 0.6 is unrealistic if not impossible.

Assuming -110 odds, you will need to hit at least 524 out of 1000 to show a profit. The odds of that, assuming you can actually pick winners at a 55% clip, are about 95.4%