How does standard deviation work in Sports Betting - Sports Betting

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How does standard deviation work in Sports Betting

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02-07-2013 , 06:47 PM

Nolimit-cash-holdm

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 194

For instance, if I bet on 1000 games and I feel my edge is 60%. What are the odds I win 600, and more importantly what are the odds of actually losing over those 1000 games.

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02-07-2013 , 07:14 PM

nevowski69

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 51

Over 1000 games there will be one actual certainty. 60% is not possible.

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02-07-2013 , 07:22 PM

Nolimit-cash-holdm

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 194

Quote:

Originally Posted by nevowski69

Over 1000 games there will be one actual certainty. 60% is not possible.

Ok then let's say 55%. The percentage isn't really the point, it's the range of games you can win or lose if you're winrate is actually 55%

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02-07-2013 , 07:31 PM

nevowski69

enthusiast

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 51

After 1000, I would say you would be close to your realistic win percentage. Be a hell of a rollercoaster getting there, though. Variance is high, but eventually it all regresses towards the mean.

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02-07-2013 , 08:05 PM

HolidayInTheSun

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,302

i think rafiki is offering fourth grade math lessons for free you might try PMing him tho no guarantee he will get it right

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02-07-2013 , 08:07 PM

PropPlayer

Sports Betting Mod

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 3,797

Perhaps some people from the thread rafiki won can redeem themselves here.

edit, wow 2 min too late with same thread reference.

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02-07-2013 , 08:26 PM

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,276

its a fine question op just stop being lazy and read wikipedia on confidence interval i actually donated to wikimedia foundation so its on me

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02-07-2013 , 08:28 PM

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,276

video for you

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02-07-2013 , 08:28 PM

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,276

haha remember when that was the pinnacle of an internet troll?

we've come a long way boys progress

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02-07-2013 , 08:29 PM

#10

etothemc2

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,317

Play around with a binomial distribution calculator. From there you can see that the probability of winning at least 500/1000 games with a 0.6 win rate is 0.9999999999. So your odds of winning the powerball are greater than the odds of losing 500+. I didn't factor in the vig, also as stated 0.6 is unrealistic if not impossible.

Assuming -110 odds, you will need to hit at least 524 out of 1000 to show a profit. The odds of that, assuming you can actually pick winners at a 55% clip, are about 95.4%

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02-07-2013 , 08:31 PM

#11

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,901

tomg should post more often. he's a winningly winning winner. he just winswinswinsnomatterwhat.

he puts your hands up. AND THEY STAY THERE.

since you're here tommy, how do i get the february chart to come up on the 2013 tomg excel sheet aka you fix it you broke it refer to wiper for fixing?

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02-08-2013 , 01:32 AM

#12

'kljhg

banned

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 3,398

Quote:

Originally Posted by TomG

its a fine question op just stop being lazy and read wikipedia on confidence interval i actually donated to wikimedia foundation so its on me

CI makes no sense to use with traditional statistics

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02-08-2013 , 01:56 AM

#13

TomG

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 4,276

SORRY MEANT CREDIBLE INTERVAL YO UCAN READ MORE ABOUT IN WHILE LIVING AT THE SOUTH POLE

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02-08-2013 , 02:53 AM

#14

sayhey69

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 831

op take a look at the paper i wrote on markov models. it describes all of the statistical techniques i employ for sports betting.

http://www.2shared.com/document/0Bue...orationMM.html

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02-08-2013 , 09:40 AM

#15

rafiki

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 39,199

Quote:

Originally Posted by etothemc2

Very cool link, thanks

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02-11-2013 , 10:58 AM

#16

ahh_snap

See my staking thread

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 1,032

Do you guys know of a calculator built where you can input perceived edge and sample size and it will graph out the distribution of results?

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