Gabby was wingin' it but, it was a cavalry charge at the top of the lane.

Only two races left and I haven't had a beer yet.

fml thought keertana was gonna get up

THIS

I hate redboarding. Of course my bets that I posted didn't win, but today just became a very nice day!

wow the willpays on the 0.5 p4s are so ridiculously huge ...

even assuming fave wins at ML odds, it returns more than twice what a vigfree win pool parlay returns

sigh!!! put the 7 over the 4 and 5 in ex and tri last race. so close!

Don't remind me.. if you took all of my selections and put them all on one ticket, instead of splitting them up.. it would have cost $490 instead of $200 but, I'd be alive to the 1-3-8-10-11. I'm suicidal atm.

ouch

i rarely play exactas or tris but my first impression is that betting fave/2nd fave exacta boxes like ESPN's Hank Goldberg touted has an expected return of -30% at best. is this far off?

edit: ughhhh sigh kev. i saw your first ticket would've been alive if 4 or 7 got up, didn't see you had the 5 in other tickets.

k last race. got the 3 malibu prayer. lets gooo!!

"saving" $290 cost me $17k

I don't think I can drink enough tonight... good luck tomorrow guys.

Sorry about your day Kev. I myself wish you would of named your child Shared Account,instead of Gabby . Had to drive up to the track and get the Form so i had a keep sake. I didnt wager really anything today, a $50 name play for you,and a $20 tri in the last with BL on top,so down $70 on the day.

x-posted since I kinda got super curious about it:

what's the deal with horses anyway? how do you get an edge on something that, to an uneducated outsider like me, seems so 100% dependant on very obvious publically available data? why isn't horse racing "solved"?

shared account killed my 2 dollar pick 4 who are those online poker players, absolute poker players?

and i walked into my OTB and bet the 4 eldaafer and prince will i am exacta and they took him down joke but nice exacta with the long shot moving up.

id like to hear anyones input on race 5 (6f sprint) if u dont mind sharing.

Well, I would guess because their are so many different angles to examine the data, that can in turn talk you into betting so many, and Horses are unpredictable creatures. The people who can sift through this data, and find the nuts and bolts of it, on a race to race basis are the ones who benefit.

This was my first day of Breeders Cup betting, I arrived at Emerald Downs with 60$ and left with 65$ !!!!!!!!!!!!

I played mostly exotics, made a 50c tri box, and 10c supa box on each of the BC races, also placed a few daily double bets, some exactas, and some random wins.


I hit two bets today a $2 exacta on race 8 which I hit for 57 dollars, and I hit a 2$ win bet on Unrivaled belle for 17$

Entering race 9 I was alive with 2 daily double tickets, and a pick 3. That 5 horse really screwed everything up But hey thats racing

I thought the price on Forever Together was unbelievable.

I went by myself, and I think learned some important things from the people around me, it was a great atmosphere.

Tomorrow, I am going with my mom and her boyfriend. Will be bringing approximately $100 to bet, since I did not go broke today.

If each horse had to run in a designated route (a la human track runners) the public data would probably be a lot more straightforward. However it's not, so factors like actual distance traveled and how much the horse had to accelerate/decelerate to navigate fields and how the horse runs at a given pace or different stated (6f, 7f, 1m etc) distances: these things all vary wildly.

I think bettors are cumulatively pretty intelligent at synthesizing this data and odds trend toward "true odds" pretty well, so much that it'd be imo impossible beating the heavy vig playing every race. This prohibitively large vig (20-25%) is probably a barrier to more sophisticated analysis devices. It's similar to other types of sports betting where you pick and choose your spots where you think your version of synthesizing stats & feel (or just feel if you're Cinch) is better than the market's. Racing often has an added benefit that the parimutuel pool is relatively small so recreational bettors (Vincent Chase dropping 5k on a longshot at Del Mar) can move lines in favorable directions for you to fade. Additionally in multi-race bets such as pick 4's you'll see people are averse to buying large tickets , so you get instances like today where the p4 paid much better than win-pool parlay odds (pretty good gauge of true odds imo) would've suggested.

Plus, even if it's not profitable - and it probably isn't for me - it's really fun.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X9171jxrlE

big carryover pic 6

The top two favorites (#1Big Drama, #2Girolamo) are both down on the inside and I think this may compromise their chances with some speed to their outside.

I'm going to play the two outside horses #11 Atta Boy Roy (best early speed) and #12 Warrior's Reward (strong closer).

After missing out big time yesterday.. I'm going to display a horseplayer's form of tilt.

Playing a caveman pick four ticket and not using Zenyatta. I missed the boat on yesterday's payday and forcing it today.

CHURCHILL DOWNS .50 pick four

8) 2-3-4-7-10
9) 1-2-8-10
10) 1-2-3-4-5-6-7
11) 1-3-4-5-12

$350

ytd (-3700)

Churchill - Race 1

#4 It's About Midnight (5/2 ml)

You guys probably remember this filly from when we had her @ Keeneland a couple of weeks ago. A $725,000 yearling purchase (very expensive for any horse, but especially a filly) from the barn of Dan Peitz, she also happened to be owned by Robert and Lawana Low, making it the exact same connections that campaigned the sensational filly Capote Belle some years back. As for the race @ Keeneland, i was extemely impressed with her. She broke slowly to find herself caught behind horses, was moving noticeably well all the way up the backstretch and was clearly full of run entering the lane, but was still caught behind horses and didn't have much room at all. Came through a small opening the second it opened up, then came roaring up the rail while squeezing through another tight spot inside the leader in deep stretch. Won going away as much the best. Extremely talented filly with a bright future here. She's been racing and training exclusively on polytrack up to know, but if she handles the dirt (and i can't see any reason why she wouldn't), she figures extremely tough here.

Good luck everyone. Race 1 pick 4

50¢ pick 4 4,6,8 with 2 with 1,2,3,4,8,9,10 with 3,5,6,7,8,9,13