Excellent capping today Vet

What a god damn call that was in the Lady Secret. Vic Stauffer FTW.

Silky Sullivan, finally remembered.

oth late p4:

6) 2,3,4,6,7,8,11,12
7) 5,6,7
8) 5,6
9) 11

$24

Discreetly Mine out for 60 days will miss the BC Sprint.

Think it's you Walk that likes this horse, Trumpet Player Jay running at Hollywood today in the 7th out of the 1 hole.

That would be correct. Nice memory, my friend.

TPJ Hasn't fared too well recently, but he'll be fresh today, hasn't raced since 7/25; he's also back on turf with a decent jock (talamo).

I think he may hit the board today. I would guess he goes off around his Morning Line of 5-1, maybe a shade towards 6 or 7 to 1...

Turfway Park pk4 $0.50. (Just hit the pk3 3/4/5 for $2 =$180 win). going to roll some of it over with these wagers.

6)2,7
7)4,7,8
8)1,4,6-9
9)4,7

Total: $36

Also threw in a small saver wager:

6)1
7)7,8
8)4,6,9
9)4,7

Total: $6

if things don't go too far south, I'll probably make a few bets (which I'll post) at Oak Tree/Hollywood today. Good luck all.

Going to try a cliff’s notes Kevroc special with the early pk4 tonight at OTH. Needed to do some capping and refrain from betting in the meantime; so if you want to hear rationale from a guy who doesn’t know jack about horses, here goes. This was basically just a time killer and diversion for me; and yes, I realize I call every horse “he”. Enjoy.

Race 1
1) Nana Beach – Raced less than a week ago; early speed that he can’t hold; extra half furlong won’t help --- OUT
2) Drop of Rubys – Nipped at the wire in a similar race at Fairplex. Don’t know about this horse; I’m not dying to back a horse with a mediocre jock and mediocre workouts – OUT
3) PegaStorm -- Last race was at this level, but was a stinker at DMR; good jock in Talamo; if you throw out last race, drop in class since last race; think the 6 week layoff will help – IN
4) Scent of Schism – No name jock; no name trainer; has been running at this level for a ton of races and best finish was a 2nd in last race at FPX; don’t see it here – OUT
5) Sexy Melody – has been around the top 3 in every race at this level; snuck a race in at Fairplex in between Del Mar and Oak Tree; decent horse; hot jock – IN
6) Just Call’er – has raced at higher levels in the past, but it doesn’t matter, this horse hasn’t hit the board in its lifetime, think he’s still out classed here – out
7) Princess Beau K – has looked good at this level and even had a nice race at the higher level 3 races back; Rosario rides; going to be favorite of the race, can’t leave him out – IN
8) Meadow Lake Queen – seems to be the early speed here, I think he gets nabbed, as he is not in an ideal post; might wire to wire it today, though I suppose; can’t leave him out – IN

Race 2
1) Skimming Skipper – early speed will be setting pace; don’t like him at this distance; no shot – OUT
2) Fitz the Cat – had some decent workouts; ran at a higher level 3 months ago; don’t like the layoff, do like the trainer/jockey combo; tough call, but going to take a shot with Sadler off the layoff, this horse might have more class than the others – IN
3) Kim’s Leading Man – raced at this level a bunch in the past, looked good in the last race, but got nabbed, I have a hunch this Barry Abrams horse is in play here – IN
4) B.I. Guy – don’t think this horse has enough to get across the finish line; I would definitely include in exotics, but not the pk4; good jockey change, but just not enough – OUT
5) Gobbler’s Knob – if I had to single, this would be my horse; he’s ran at this distance, will be able to catch the early speed and his style sets up nicely; like flores in the irons here too – IN
6) scratched Warren’s Payday – not too impressed, but I could see this kind of horse somehow getting in the winners circle and busting people’s pk4s, still not including it -- OUT
7) Bion – improving horse, but not enough; would include maybe in the exotics, but not in the pk4
8) Dave’s Ruler – going to be favorite due to drop in class and experience at this distance; great jock on a Hess horse, can’t leave out – IN

Race 3
1) Morganouska – don’t know what to make of this horse; looked a lot better in his 2nd race, where he wired the field at the same distance as this race; good jock in Talamo; good trainer in Hess; feel like my picks are getting a little chalky, but that’s the way I see it – IN
2) Bell Zone – why not? Raced at a lower level in his first two races, but showed some promise; has never run at this distance, but I think the extra furlong+ will suit Bell Zone, going to throw him in and hope to a bomb – IN
3) My Last Tycoon – not a bad horse, just don’t think he has the class to contend here; has been racing a lot lately and just don’t think he’ll be in the mix – OUT
4) It’s not Unusual – raced on the turf at DMR last race to no avail, has a win at 1m in a 40K claimer against a pretty weak field, I’m not about to throw out a Hendricks horse in a decent spot here – IN
5) Uncle Greg – Not sure what to think of this horse, ran a close 2nd to It’s not Unusual in the 40K starter allowance at Delmar a month ago; I’m not sure this horse has the winning instinct, but could see it getting up close, going to throw out for the pk4, reluctantly – OUT
6) No Stadium – Solid Carla Gaines horse with PVal riding; a lot of turf races in the past, but has won on the dirt; should be up at the lead or just stalking, likes this distance, definite possibility – IN

Race 4
1) Lovely Sophia – hasn’t raced on the turf yet in his career, and I usually like to see one or two under a horse’s belt before I’ll back him; Don’t think this horse has too much of a chance – OUT
2) Magical Grace – Firster that doesn’t look to have too much speed, gets Nakatani, whom I don’t necessarily prefer on a first-timer; definite throw out – OUT
3) Warren’s Three D’s – has raced at a higher level in his past races; just with no solid results, don’t like this horse to come near the lead at all – OUT
4) Unknown Heat – PVAl will be sending this one, but I don’t think it can hold up; will be the pace-setter and doesn’t have the skill set to take it all the way; nice trainer/jock combo, but I will pass – OUT
5) Move on Gypsy – no-brainer, consistent horse , gets a solid jockey in Martin Garcia, hit the board 3 of 3 times on turf and seems to like the distance – IN
6) Jax El – Another Abrams’ horse, but don’t think it can get across the line before the others; has raced at the same level as other horses who have fared a lot better more often, don’t like this horse at all – OUT
7) Tiz Smoke Tiz Fire – O’neil/Rosario; consistent turf horse with good speed numbers; hasn’t had great workouts; coming out of a stakes loss at FPX, and a lot of times, I’ll play against horses who are coming out of stakes races on short rest, I think I’ll toss this one, too – OUT
8) Favoloso – has hit the board a 2 for2 at this distance, and hit the board 3 out of 6 on turf; pretty consistent horse that may nab it at the end – IN

1) 3,5,7,8
2) 2,3,5,8
3) 1,2,4,6
4) 5,8

.50 cent pk 4, total of $64 – I hope it pays at least $65!

This is my first post in this thread. I follow it sometimes just to see what you guys are thinking. Tonight I thought I'd throw my picks on here after I saw TheWalk's analysis and see if I can get something going.

I played both the early and late pick4's tonight.

Early Pick 4 - played for $1 - $24 total

Race 1: 8-7-5
Race 2: 8-5
Race 3: 1-6
Race 4: 7-5

Chalky I know but whatever.


Late pick 4 - broke out 2 tickets

$1 play - $18 total

Race 5: 3-2-8
Race 6: 8
Race 7: 2-6
Race 8: 1-4-7

$2 play - $6 total

Race 5: 3
Race 6: 8
Race 7: 2
Race 8: 1-4-7

GL to Walk and anyone else playing tonight.

Welcome to the thread Corndog,GL on your plays this evening.

Thanks.

Guess I should have clarified that these were oak tree bets but figured you guys would know that.

Anyway, hit the first one for 168.10 - not bad.

Already out of 2nd pick 4 on first leg lol - the 10 was bet down to 3/2 off 3-1 morning line and rolled late - meh, profited on the night but felt pretty good about that 2nd ticket.

Nice write-up Walk! Too bad you didn't have Tiz in there.. he figured too..

Welcome Corndog!

I'll be heading out to the Islanders opening night game on the island tonight but, going to play the Keeneland $250k guaranteed all-stakes .50 pick four and TiVo it.

KEENELAND $0.50 pick fours

7) 6
8) 2-4-7-8
9) 1-5-7-8-9-10
10) 1-3-4

$36

7) 7-8
8) 2-4-7-8
9) 1-5-7-9-10
10) 4

$20

7) 6
8) 1-3
9) 1-5-7-9-10
10) 4

$5

7) 6
8) 2-4-7-8
9) 2-3
10) 4

$4

7) 6
8) 2-4-7-8
9) 1-5-7-9-10
10) 6

$10

TOTAL $75 ytd (-2575)

and give me a caveman ticket over at Oak Tree...

6) 1-5
7) 3-5-6-7
8) 1-5-6-7
9) 1-7-8-9

$64

ytd (-2639)

Kev,Trick or Treat ....Hope your trip to the Island was a good one despite the outcome in OT.

Hey Honch, yeah it was a nice comeback. The boys were down 4-2 and rallied to force the OT. I'll take it. We had great seats.





Here's Ribeiro scoring the shootout winner...

Awesome pics Kev,and nice seats my man,glad you had a good time. Ive never sat that close at the Joe,always in the nosebleeds myself. The Trick or Treat comment was for the horse Halloween Candy that knocked you out of the late PK4 at Hollywood,its one of my Virtual Stable horses.

Late pk4 at OTH

6) 4,6
7) 1
8) 3,4,6,7
9) 1,5,7,9

Total: $16


6) 4,6
7) 1,4,5
8) 6
9) 1,5,7,9

Total: $12

6) 2
7) 1,4
8) 3,6
9) 1,5,7

Total: $6

Some crazy double prices today at Keenland if anyone noticed

Race 7- Acronym-6/1 ( wide open field )
Race 8- Rogue Romance 3/1 fave in wide open race

This double paid a whopping $140

On to the feature race, the G1 Spinster, I saw this as a very competive race where anyone could win, so I used to all button, and got lucky when the longest shot in the field Acoma came in at 23/1, he paid $49.60. I used all with the 8 and 10 in the finale, i was expecting the doubles to pay in the $300-$500 range.

Here are the will pays for the 2 horses i had

8- morning line 5/1 $ 156
10- morning line 5/2 $ 193

So a $50 horse with a $12 horse would pay the same as a $14 horse and a $8 horse. Im actually glad I didnt hit it because i would have felt like i got robbed.

BKGrinder,


Was quite a sick card. Im a tri player, and my only hit was the first race at hollywood, with the 4 on top keyed. payed like 315$ not bad for a 6 horse field . Im stayin away from horses and riding out on my phillies !!!!!! easy money boys, trust me take Halladay against the Braves/Giants this Sat. for WHATEVER price hes laying (prob -275+).

Just a reminder, there is a $128K Pick Six carryover at Belmont Park for Thursday's card. Nobody hit the Pick Six for the second day in a row today...

Good looking out for the thread Knight on the carry at Belmont. I've been dealing with some health issues again ,and havent looked at horses for the past week. Thanks again for the reminder,there are a lot of us who chase these in this thread. I only mention my health in case i dont post for awhile everyone understands. GL to everyone chasing the carry on Thursday.

Honcho

Get better soon Honch. Hope its not too serious.

I'll be dipping my toes into those Belmont waters.

Hope you feel better, Honcho. Take care of yourself.

Kev,DC Thank you. I will be fine i believe,just the occasional bs that comes up from this crazy disease. Pain lets us know were alive,and scars remind us that our past was real.

I wont mention this anymore here,i know its the last thing anyone wants to see or read,....Show me the picks and stfu Honcho,right? LOL

Lets take down this PK6 Thursday,and crush the Oaktree meet from here till the BC.

Question for KevRoc, Honcho, and the rest of you sharp cappers.


So im at the turf club today (philly OTB), im down like 120. I got 80 left on me i say F it, im playing some big tri's with some longer than usual shots on top........

So Finger Lakes is 2 MTP Race 8 , I gave one look at the book and liked the 1 horse.....

I play 1-76531-76531. BOOM I hit it the tri for $1.

1- went off 10-1
7- went off 11-1
6- went off 50-1 ( Maybe a lil higher cant remember)


I only get 733.00 ????????? Beat both chalks, basically three longest shots on board. How can that be??? before they posted the official prices my heart is pounding thinking i jsut made 1500-2000 at LEAST. needless to say I felt like I got robbed, or the fix was in (typical at finger but their tri's usually pay decent.) Any help appreciated......

In New York, the track takeout is 25 percent for the exotics, if I am recalling that correctly. That will eat up a chunk of your winnings.