Ruffled Feathers wins @ $7.80

Walk: Thanks man, I'll try to keep to it. Probably just do one race a day except for friday nights, where I'll do pick fours in SoCal. Good Luck with Hockley!

Chronic: Welcome to the thread, look forward to contributions.

Honcho: I have mixed feelings about the .50 pick four at DMR. I like playing .50 at other tracks that I do not follow as closely for that extra coverage but, making the wager .50 instead of $1 makes the pool more efficient and guys like us that specialize at a certain track lose value in my opinion. But, I'll definitely be spreading more ABC type tickets with the .50 format instead of $1 caveman punches.

Discreet: As long as Espinoza stays out of trouble, eh? That seam opened up JUST in time! I actually saw your post and bet a $1 exbox 5-8 and a $1 p/w 8/1-2. So for $4 I got back $24. Thanks for the double sawbuck!

As for our feature race, Twirling Candy is a serious buzz horse here and is getting insanely overbet for a horse trying two turns and grass for the first time. If he is as advertised, then we lose but, I'm investing $50 against him. Now, how to bet that $50. I could spread win bets out and take advantage of those overlays BUT, trying to envision how the race will unfold, I think Macias and Twirling Candy will be gunning it (face the ace too) and I think we can find excellent value in the exactas, especially if Twirling Candy gets softened up and fades. With 8MTP Macias is sitting at 6:1, even if he drops to around 4:1 or so I think using him on top in trifectas can be very +ev.

TICKETS

$1 exactas 2-5-7-9 with 2-3-5-7-9 $16

$2 exactas 2-5-7-9 with 6 $8

$1 trifecta 6 with 2-5-7-9 with 2-3-5-7-9-10 $20

$1 trifecta 6 with 3 with 1-2-5-7-9-10 $6

$6 win 5 (hockley 10:1 with 1mtp WAY TOO HIGH)

TOTAL BET $56 ytd (-5600)

Nice ride by Rosario, perfect trip and took to the grass just fine. Looks like a very nice 3yo for Sadler going forward. Sometimes these guys live up to the hype! See you guise tomorrow.

Yes not sure you see what i do,but i really like the potential,and your very close with your abc method,i just dont subscribe to it,not that it isnt decent or profitable in the long run,i again just do things my way....What i see is the abilty to play my $1 same as Pk4,and also a chaser card cheap as well that could provide tremendous upside.

Del Mar $164k pick six carryover today with small fields. Will be taking a stab at it. But, in the meantime..

Feature race of the day

ARLINGTON PARK Race 6 *July 22nd*

I'll be back around 4-5MTP for tickets on that one..

Now, as for the DMR big Pick Six, here's our ticket...

3) 8
4) 8
5) 1-2-3-4-7
6) 3
7) 1-2-4-6
8) 1-5-6-8

$160 ytd (-5760)

Feature race, looking at the tote, all of the action is going to the #9 horse who is coming out of the AP Oaks. They are completely ignoring the #2, #7 and #8 which are huge overlays according to my m/l, so some simple use of the win pool is in order. Going to put $2 to win on each runner. $6 total bet.

Also, scratches in the 5th at DMR will make me buy the race. Make it an all button. Same cost.

AP $2 win 2, 7,8

$6 bet (-5766)

edit for result: wow! a sixteenth out my three horses were 1-2-3, lol. No excuses, Pi Bella got away with a :51.3 half but, Dundalk Dust lived up to her tote action and ran them down. Looking ahead, the #7 Forthelonghaul ran quite well in her first try versus N2X, and I'd bet on her again in a similar spot.

Del Mar 7/22/10

5.) 6-5-3
6.) 3-2-8
7.) 4-2-5
8.) 5-6-7

Looks like the track is playing like last year,if your horse is in front on the last turn on the MT tear up your ticket. 1 horse finished on the lead yesterday and held,and was the last race. My actual PK4 i will try to get in later if i have time,i know i am buying the 5th race due to 2 scratches,and will use 1 or 2 more in the last as well.

I swear, sometimes a effing hate this game. How do I not have both Paddy Gallagher horses in the 7th? Stupid stupid stupid. That is going to cost me the pick six.

LOL @/with Kev....I am alive to the 1,5,6,7,8 on my $45 late $1 PK4.....Sure i just mooshed myself,but you made me LOL pretty good there Kev.

Good luck Honch, nah I'm really mad at myself, these P6 will pays are not bad considering the short prices. No excuse for not having both Gallagher's there. I just left at least $1k on the table.

edit after result: nice one Honcho wtg. I didn't even get 5 of 6. Truth be told I hated those last two races. Also, the watering of the track seemed to enhance the speed.

Thanks Kev!

Heres the breakdown on the day....Total invested was $144....Total won was $930.70....Total profit on the day $786.70....Told ya i love and do well here!

I think more than the water today the unusual mild temps in there area helped for speed today,it makes the wax tighten up on the polly and speeds up the track.

Ryan where you at? Remember when i tried politely as i know how to offer you some advice? Remember you told me you didnt give a s##t to me, co-founder of this thread? LOL AT YOU!!! Tried to sit at the adult table on thanksgiving few years too soon you did. Im not a mod like Kev,he has to be nice. Cant wait to keep tabs on your ROI,where we at $2.60 is it?


Tonight not a good night for my show and tell joke to you Kev? How you tell us everyting,but show us nothing?...Just kidding my man,you were very close today on the PK6,and nailed your singles,all 3, i thought that was a ballsy PK6 ticket,and no doubt its going to happen soon for you. I would still back you in a heartbeat.

I'll take Ryan's ROI over my 2010 ROI.

But, yeah nice profits for your first day of the meet, keep it up (and post the tickets!!!)

Being friday, I will come back later with my DMR late pick four breakdowns.. I may be having a down year but, I'm still enjoying myself, lol.

When it stops being fun and "feels" like a job, then it is time to take a break, imo. That's why I stopped using HUDs for poker. It felt robotic and I wasn't having fun anymore.

Looks like a decent friday night card, let's land a big one tonight!

Hey Kev and Honcho, seems like you guys are keeping this thread alive and im just hoping to add to it. I totally agree with you kev about focusing and pick 3/pick4. Theres soooo much value, esp at tracks like saratoga and delmar, if u can get a 5-1, 9-1, and even and 2-1 shot ur looking at a 500-700 pick 3. Also I believe its alot easier to find the winner of the race, rather then trying to pick a horse for 2nd or 3rd, any pig can hit the board and ruin ur triple or exactas

Im trying to focus this meet on my game theory above all else, i think you have to have a plan of attack and stick to it, not jus bet every race that comes along and follow ur emotions. The the only weapon we have against the track is patience. I have an ongoing arguement with my cousin, whos very serious bout the horses also, he follows times of races religously and he looks for horses that come out of races with good horses. My line of thinking is totally opposite his, I think each race is a new set of circumstances. By reading the form theres jus sooo many variables you cant account for, such as track bias, what a trainer wants out of the race, ur basically guessing and trying to get inside the trainers mind. I have been playing for over 10 years, mostly recreationally im jus begining to take it seriously now, and im convinced the only way to win in this game is look for value, pick ur spots, betting every race is jus suicide.

An example of what I mean is the horse kev pointed out two nights ago, twirling candy, I remember his first two raves, they were decent not spectacualr, and he was 3/5, trying turf for the first time, also streching out, no way he deserved to be that price vs a decent field of experienced grass runners. Thats the kind of oppurtunitys im lookin for, trying to go against the public money where the fave has questions marks.


Those are jus my thoughts sorry it was sooo long would appreciate any input from you two guys, you seem to have alot of knowledge bout the game

Hey Grinder, yeah picking spots is def the way to go. Some people like win bets only, others make use of the W, P & S pools. Some look for a single race that they feel very strongly about and play vertically (exactas, trifectas, supers). While others like myself and Honcho like horizontals (pick 3,4,6 etc).

As for times, company, trainer stats etc etc. It all matters. There is no magic formula. Use all data at your disposal and form your opinions. Set value and envision how the race will be run. I used to swear by pace and ignore class completely but, I have learned that class effects the pace. It may be a tad difficult to quantify but, it shows in the charts. It is very very important to learn how to distinguish classy animals from a lesser beast that just freaked a figure.

Look forward to your insights, picks and quips. Don't be shy to give opinions, ya can't get any worse than I've been running and I've been playing a looong time, lol. Just kiddin', I actually feel pretty good about my capping and loving the game.

EDIT: yeah Twirling Candy on paper looked good but, not 3/5 good. The buzz however was ridiculous. They were howling about this one on TVG. Still, I try to beat that price all day long. No regrets at all. I'd love to be Sadler though.. Twirling Candy proved good on turf and synthetic and can go short or long. That leaves a lot of options for Sadler without even having to attempt to take on older horses. Garden spot, imo.

I realize times and class are somewhat important, but what i meant was say a particular horse runs a very fast time and beyer, whos to say hes going to duplicate that effort in his next start. i relate this to bullet works, jus because a horse trains a bullet, you dont know what the trainer did in that speficic work. A good example of this, they mentioned this the other day on TVG, they said some trainers in cheap claiming races will make horses run fast work outs, looking to get the horse claimed. The avergae person sitting home might not be aware of this, they will jus look at the work and be like " wow this horse is training lights out he must be sitting on a big race" I try to look for reasons a horse will improve, angles etc... rather than focus on what that horse did in the past. One last example lol, say a long shot runs a big race, wins or comes in 2nd, in my opionion you missed the boat on that horse, hes gonna be nowhere that price in his next race and your going to be taking an underlay hoping he runs back to his last race.

Hope to see you in the OTB on SI Im there alot :_)

Hey Grinder,nice to see ya,and you make some good points i agree with. I am just now going to sleep,been finishing updating my virtual stable. Started capping today at 1pm,going to sleep now 4am,15 hour days are common for me,i put a lot into this game to show the respect for the gift that was given to me (Kev understands). I havent even looked at Fridays card yet,not sure if i am playing tomorrow or not yet.

The Sadler horse Twirling Candy is it,is a BEAST! Watch that horses last 100 yards on the replay....Crazy stride,every stride looked like it covered 20 yards...See BC in this ones future,with all sorts of options before as Kev perfectly stated.

Yeah, I hear ya. I think workout patterns are more important than times except for the very quick and the very slow. Also, the age of the animal matters when tabbing works. I'm not really going to give more than a passing glance at the workouts of an 8yo claimer at Finger Lakes but, I'll dig into the works of an unraced 2yo debuting at Saratoga.

Which OTB? I live 3-4 blocks away from the one on Amboy.

i remember you saying awhile ago you go to the one on SI, i used to live on SI i lived right by the one that closed down, on hyland, so i went to the amboy one alot, my cousin lives a few blocks from there so if u ever see a young kid, like 24, thats prob him , hes usually the youngest guy in the place by at least 30 years

Ha! Yeah, I just run in and out if I must. The Hylan OTB was where I went to cash my big ticket in 2006. They were like "umm, we don't have that kind of money here.. you gotta go into the city." I liked the layout there though, and right next to Chevy's! Too bad its gone.

Hey, Honcho.. here's an article for you when you wake up. Get rid of this fake stuff already!! http://www.nctimes.com/sports/equest...76ee71292.html

$54 pk5 at Monmouth today: a little chalky, but whatever...

Race 6: 4-7
Race 7: 4,8,9
Race 8: 5,9,10
Race 9: 1,7,8
Race 10: 2


gl all. will obviously have a few saver win bets in race 10 if I'm still alive.

Nice article and thanks Kev. I agree 100% about this fake crap. I hope Santa Anita goes back to dirt asap. Just printing sheets now,GL on your plays Walk.

1 other thing,you and Grinder go to OTB's,just wondered why? Why not twinspires or Youbet? What is an OTB like?

Del Mar 7/23/10

1.) 1-2-5
2.) 5-4-6
3.) 2-7-5
4.) 7-8-3
5.) 5-8-7
6.) 7-11-3
7.) 7-12-3
8.) 3-7-4

Todays card looks to have some great value to it,lots of potential. Hit or miss today you have to play imo when the track offers this kind of value. Im rolling the card w/PK 3's,DD's,and the late PK4,not sure if going a $1 for the late PK4 or take advantage of the new .50 late PK4 and spread a little more.

Hey guys, I fell asleep and couldnt post the breakdowns.. long story short I made two pick four tickets. One singling the #3 Best Mon in the 5th thinking he was lone speed and he got caught at the wire.. and the other ticket singling #1 Lunada Bay in the 6th thinking he might steal it on the front on the grass and he faded at the top of the stretch. Tough races tonight.

Fell asleep? LOL, cant argue with the body sometimes,done it myself before. I ended up -279 on the day. Hit one DD for about $50 is it. I still liked the opportunity today offered value wise,so ride her till she bucks ya,or dont ride at all.

It was a weird day all around,you had a horse break through the gate 2 times,while they left the others sit for about an extra 4 minutes...Normally they pull the jockeys off,so that no horse has an advantage. In the 7th you had the #4 horse do a complete backflip and caused her scratch,and hit the #5 and made her scratch...14 minute delay for horse ambulance....way to long imo for it to get her off the track,ambulance should be right there,especialy considering its 2 yr old fillies,their always skittish anyways.

Honcho alive in the late pick 3 with the chalk with rosario, and i also have him the double along with the 3 horse wish me luck@!!!