HORSE RACING THREAD
07-18-2010
, 02:25 PM
Quote:
When i saw Kev's long long post,my first impression was he thinks he needs to be validated still about his capping ability,and his running total. I know it takes guts to keep a running active total as he does,and i still have no doubt his 5k will be wiped away soon and will be back in the plus very soon,he's too good a capper. The only thing i see as an outsider is he is a 4l mod,takes time away,and also hes on several tracks making plays,when he would before only concentrate on so cal,and occasional Ny play. But thats just a friends observation. Honestly when i saw the long post from him i said 'YA YA YA Wheres the picks" meaning i trust what he says because i know he knows how to cap,and respect his capping ability. I though understand Wymans point also,theres more than me in this thread,i forget this sometimes
When i saw Kev's long long post,my first impression was he thinks he needs to be validated still about his capping ability,and his running total. I know it takes guts to keep a running active total as he does,and i still have no doubt his 5k will be wiped away soon and will be back in the plus very soon,he's too good a capper. The only thing i see as an outsider is he is a 4l mod,takes time away,and also hes on several tracks making plays,when he would before only concentrate on so cal,and occasional Ny play. But thats just a friends observation. Honestly when i saw the long post from him i said 'YA YA YA Wheres the picks" meaning i trust what he says because i know he knows how to cap,and respect his capping ability. I though understand Wymans point also,theres more than me in this thread,i forget this sometimes
cliff's notes: we all like it when 2+2=4 but sometimes we wanna know why. :P
07-18-2010
, 03:14 PM
Think you missed my point Kev,but as for TVG,you keep this trend up and there is no doubt in my mind you will be TVG material 
No idea who Michelle Yu is btw,wont watch TVG for anything. I do again understand some people would prefer the breakdown Whale,i was wrong about this,and wrote pretty selfishly when i commented earlier in regards to it,i apolgise to people in the thread who enjoy that. Good luck on your late PK4's Kev,and Walk.
Honcho
No idea who Michelle Yu is btw,wont watch TVG for anything. I do again understand some people would prefer the breakdown Whale,i was wrong about this,and wrote pretty selfishly when i commented earlier in regards to it,i apolgise to people in the thread who enjoy that. Good luck on your late PK4's Kev,and Walk.
Honcho
07-18-2010
, 05:34 PM
Arrgh Walk!
You were rollin' there! You initially said you were gonna put some money on the head of the #7. You had 'em!!!
Dayum.
lol Honch, that was a good one.. did you see there was a horse at sacramento the other day called "Mute Rudulph" that won and paid like $20. Hahahahahaha!
You were rollin' there! You initially said you were gonna put some money on the head of the #7. You had 'em!!!
Dayum.
lol Honch, that was a good one.. did you see there was a horse at sacramento the other day called "Mute Rudulph" that won and paid like $20. Hahahahahaha!
07-18-2010
, 08:47 PM
Quote:
You got me Honch! I posted thoughts on each entry because I want to be hired by TVG so I can get close to Michelle Yu. I'm so busted!
Thanks Wyman, I'll try to give thoughts like that maybe once a week.
Okay guise, closing day at Hollywood Park! Let's crush this late pick four.
Since this year has been GROSS. I'm betting $144.
7) 6-7-9
8) 1-5-6
9) 3-5-6-7
10) 8-10-13-14
Scratches aren't up yet. If they affect the ticket, I'll be back to amend it.
YTD (-5554) (thank god for poker and commodities)
Thanks Wyman, I'll try to give thoughts like that maybe once a week.
Okay guise, closing day at Hollywood Park! Let's crush this late pick four.
Since this year has been GROSS. I'm betting $144.
7) 6-7-9
8) 1-5-6
9) 3-5-6-7
10) 8-10-13-14
Scratches aren't up yet. If they affect the ticket, I'll be back to amend it.
YTD (-5554) (thank god for poker and commodities
)
Again, I am only posting a total for the sake of accountability.
See you guise at Del Mar!
07-19-2010
, 10:44 AM
Quote:
cliff's notes: we all like it when 2+2=4 but sometimes we wanna know why. :P
i like that whale.kev you know your stuff youll be killin em soon enough! love this thread, learn so much from you guys im such an amateur horseplayer. will post some of my crazy picks this week.
i like that whale.kev you know your stuff youll be killin em soon enough! love this thread, learn so much from you guys im such an amateur horseplayer. will post some of my crazy picks this week.
Kevroc's feature race of the day..
DELAWARE PARK RACE 8 *July 19th*
Quote:
Optional Claiming 40k OR Allowance Non Winners of two races other than mdn/clm/st.alw in other words OC40k/N2X
$38k purse for fillies & mares 3yo & up 1mile + 70yds on the turf
1) Idle Talk- Fresh 4yo filly for the cold Mary Eppler barn. She is a fresh speed consideration on the rail. This horse has been a model of consistency, finishing in the exacta six times in a row until running a bit over her head at Monmouth Park May 30th. That was a $79k N2X going a similar distance on the grass. In that ride she was wide into the first turn and sat 4th off a hot pace. She ended up tiring in the lane and was not pressed at all. She could definitely score here and 8:1 is a juicy M/L price. I believe that the pace will keep her honest here and I'm using underneath in the trifecta.
2) Saar Treaty- 4yo Saarland filly has already satisfied the N2X condition and is running for a tag today. Her beyer figs have been steadily climbing. Wooley is 3 for 12 going sprint to route this meet and scoring with claimers at 28%. Solid numbers but, the one drawback is that her lone turf score was her maiden breaker back in September of 2008. Again, 8:1 is a very attractive price for an animal that has been running against better but, I'm playing underneath in the trifecta.
3) Annabill- MAIN TRACK ONLY. If the race gets taken off the turf, she gets in and all of my homework is null and void.
4) Domestic Bliss- This 4yo filly ventures outside of the state of PA for the first time. She is coming off back-to-back career high beyer figs at Penn National. Looking purely at the fractional times, she looks too slow to keep up with this group. She would be a surprise in the win spot and I'm not using her in the trifecta either.
5) Heavenly Moon- The old lady of the crowd, this 5yo mare has run in twice as many races than any of these. She has hit the board in 18 of 30 starts. She was put on the shelf in November for 6 months, then came back in May for her 5yo campaign and rattled off beyer figs of 64, 77 and 80 respectively, breaking the N1X condition in the process with a 5wide closing move at Pimlico. Her last effort was a solid try in her first attempt against N2X types at Monmouth. Her current form and experience suggests she can win and 4:1 sounds about right for her. 10 second place finishes make me use her underneath in trifectas.
6) Jazema's Ginger- 4yo Go For Gin filly is part of the speed equation and will most likely catch the front. She just broke the N1X condition in her latest effort, a 5.5f sprint on the grass at Colonial Downs at 14:1 with a paltry 59 beyer fig. The beyer par for this race is 83 and her only two attempts routing were 7th place finishes. Her first attempt versus N2X types will be a learning experience and there is enough early speed here to prevent her from stealing it. Toss out.
7) Paradise Bound- Jeremy Rose gets the leg up on this 4yo grey Pulpit filly. She is coming out of two tough optional claiming races up north at Woodbine. One of which she was a beaten favorite. Looking at the replay, she tried to circle the field six wide and it was just too much too do versus 62k OC company. The race prior to that one was a N1X score at Keeneland where Kenny Desormeaux made a similar 6wide move, posting a field-high 86 beyer. The pace is hot enough here that she can use her one run closing tactic with sparkling success today. Let's just hope Jeremy doesnt have to go 6wide this time! Using this one as my trifecta key.
8) Itsagiantcauseway- The lone 3yo in the field, this daughter of super-sire Giant's Causeway is the only one with a win over this oval. She's is coming out of the 25 for 99 Vazquez barn and running consistent beyers in the high to mid 70 range. However, both of her wins were going 7.5f including her N1X breaker which was with a 7pound apprentice rider up and the benefit of carrying only 107lbs. Carried 118 and stretched to a similar distance to today's and did not embarrass herself but, nothing special either. The :50.1 half mile she ran in her last effort is not impressive to me for a racehorse with success sprinting. She's got a lot going for her but, at 2:1 you can keep her. I'm putting her in the 2nd and 3rd spots only.
$38k purse for fillies & mares 3yo & up 1mile + 70yds on the turf
1) Idle Talk- Fresh 4yo filly for the cold Mary Eppler barn. She is a fresh speed consideration on the rail. This horse has been a model of consistency, finishing in the exacta six times in a row until running a bit over her head at Monmouth Park May 30th. That was a $79k N2X going a similar distance on the grass. In that ride she was wide into the first turn and sat 4th off a hot pace. She ended up tiring in the lane and was not pressed at all. She could definitely score here and 8:1 is a juicy M/L price. I believe that the pace will keep her honest here and I'm using underneath in the trifecta.
2) Saar Treaty- 4yo Saarland filly has already satisfied the N2X condition and is running for a tag today. Her beyer figs have been steadily climbing. Wooley is 3 for 12 going sprint to route this meet and scoring with claimers at 28%. Solid numbers but, the one drawback is that her lone turf score was her maiden breaker back in September of 2008. Again, 8:1 is a very attractive price for an animal that has been running against better but, I'm playing underneath in the trifecta.
3) Annabill- MAIN TRACK ONLY. If the race gets taken off the turf, she gets in and all of my homework is null and void.
4) Domestic Bliss- This 4yo filly ventures outside of the state of PA for the first time. She is coming off back-to-back career high beyer figs at Penn National. Looking purely at the fractional times, she looks too slow to keep up with this group. She would be a surprise in the win spot and I'm not using her in the trifecta either.
5) Heavenly Moon- The old lady of the crowd, this 5yo mare has run in twice as many races than any of these. She has hit the board in 18 of 30 starts. She was put on the shelf in November for 6 months, then came back in May for her 5yo campaign and rattled off beyer figs of 64, 77 and 80 respectively, breaking the N1X condition in the process with a 5wide closing move at Pimlico. Her last effort was a solid try in her first attempt against N2X types at Monmouth. Her current form and experience suggests she can win and 4:1 sounds about right for her. 10 second place finishes make me use her underneath in trifectas.
6) Jazema's Ginger- 4yo Go For Gin filly is part of the speed equation and will most likely catch the front. She just broke the N1X condition in her latest effort, a 5.5f sprint on the grass at Colonial Downs at 14:1 with a paltry 59 beyer fig. The beyer par for this race is 83 and her only two attempts routing were 7th place finishes. Her first attempt versus N2X types will be a learning experience and there is enough early speed here to prevent her from stealing it. Toss out.
7) Paradise Bound- Jeremy Rose gets the leg up on this 4yo grey Pulpit filly. She is coming out of two tough optional claiming races up north at Woodbine. One of which she was a beaten favorite. Looking at the replay, she tried to circle the field six wide and it was just too much too do versus 62k OC company. The race prior to that one was a N1X score at Keeneland where Kenny Desormeaux made a similar 6wide move, posting a field-high 86 beyer. The pace is hot enough here that she can use her one run closing tactic with sparkling success today. Let's just hope Jeremy doesnt have to go 6wide this time! Using this one as my trifecta key.
8) Itsagiantcauseway- The lone 3yo in the field, this daughter of super-sire Giant's Causeway is the only one with a win over this oval. She's is coming out of the 25 for 99 Vazquez barn and running consistent beyers in the high to mid 70 range. However, both of her wins were going 7.5f including her N1X breaker which was with a 7pound apprentice rider up and the benefit of carrying only 107lbs. Carried 118 and stretched to a similar distance to today's and did not embarrass herself but, nothing special either. The :50.1 half mile she ran in her last effort is not impressive to me for a racehorse with success sprinting. She's got a lot going for her but, at 2:1 you can keep her. I'm putting her in the 2nd and 3rd spots only.
$1 trifecta key 7/1-2-5-8/1-2-5-8
$12 total
YTD (-5466)
Last edited by Kevroc; 07-19-2010 at 10:51 AM.
07-19-2010
, 08:34 PM
Quote:
DRF is running their DelMar/Saratoga special so everyone knows. For their basic PP's it is $37 for the entire meet,a dollar per issue compared to $2.95 an issue. Saratoga's is $40 for the same basic PP's for the entire meet. Best value they offer all year till Santa Anita opens its 81 day meet.
the Formulator! So incredible. Now if only my screen was as easy on the eyes as the inkscreen of a Nook or a Kindle!
07-20-2010
, 10:51 AM
Feature Race of the Day
COLONIAL DOWNS Race 8 *July 20th*
TICKET
$1 trifecta 3-6-8 with 2-3-6-8-9-10 with 2-3-6-8-9-10
$4 win on #8
$64 total bet YTD (-5530)
Ravalo will most likely be around even money, we may improve that price if we can hit this trifecta with him on top. If we score with Malibu Kid on top we may make a modest profit and if we can snag Poppy's Punkin on top..
COLONIAL DOWNS Race 8 *July 20th*
Quote:
The Chesapeake Stakes $50k purse for 3yo & up 6f over the dirt
1) Rough Road Ahead- Claimed away from Scott Lake for a mere 18k in March, this 5yo horse was given a freshener and shipped to Monmouth to face $81k N2X types! Was soundly beaten and then dropped back down to 20k claimers at Philly Park and just missed. This is another very ambitious spot. The connections apparently see something in this horse that we don't. I'm figuring that a beyer of at least 90 is going to be achieved here to win and this guy hasn't ran that high in 20 starts. Pass.
2) Wynn Wynn Deal- Part of the pace for sure, this 4yo has been routing versus OC types. The troubling news is that this one hasn't found the winner's circle in over a year. The shortening up in distance should go a long way in adding to his staying power but, I lean towards minor awards for this one.
3) Malibu Kid- Jenkins and Dunkelberger team up with this hard knockin' 5yo. He has proven that he can rate and sit just off the speed. A very logical player and one to contend with.
4) Blackhossnamdwhity- Clearly, this 6yo needed his last race. This is his second race back off of a 14 month layoff. All five career wins have come under the lights at Charles Town. He does have a race over the oval where he cut a half mile in :46 just about 2 lengths behind the pacesetter and then faded. I see the turf to dirt angle as a means of waking up this old guy but, hitting the board versus these seems a tall order.
5) Outsmarting Dixie- Talk about ambitious, this 3yo is a maiden! With only two prior races under his belt, he would have to increase his best beyer fig by over 30 pts to win this race if my gauge of 90 is accurate. Outclassed.
6) Ravalo- Speaking of class. This 6yo guy has earned over $800k in his career. A beaten favorite in his last two, they were against stakes company and he was right in the mix the whole way. Bottom line is, this guy is a hard nosed competitor and never throws a clunker. The price will be short but, should be in the exacta.
7) Purely Precious- Part of the pace, this 4yo should be gunning for the front. However, this guy is dreadfully cheap and I cannot bring myself to punch his number anywhere on my tickets. Restricted claimers just don't fit here.
8) Poppy's Punkin- I am intrigued by this lightly raced 6yo horse. He is a fresh speed and will be in the mix from the outside. I love the price, I love that karamanos is in the irons and I love the fresh lightly raced angle. The negatives.. he has been crushed by Malibu Kid and he may be a "need the lead" type and that is a difficult task 8wide versus these. It seems like his best days were as a 4yo. He only ran twice as a 5yo and this is his 3rd try as a 6yo. I watched the replays of his last three races and he is honest speed and I'm using at a price.
9) Celtic Innis- The favorite of the 2009 version of the Chesapeake, this 8yo old timer is the only one with a win over the track. He led the whole way in 2009 and was nailed on the money. Looking for revenge in this one but, I truly believe his best days are long behind him. Too much respect to completely throw out, use underneath in trifectas.
10) Written In Stone- Popular at the claim box, this Canada shipper was claimed twice in his past three outings for $60k and $62.5k. His best figures have come over conventional dirt and that is exactly what Mike Pino is bringing him here to do. With the far outside post, he may not be able to get up in time and he has been running second lately. A candidate for minor awards.
1) Rough Road Ahead- Claimed away from Scott Lake for a mere 18k in March, this 5yo horse was given a freshener and shipped to Monmouth to face $81k N2X types! Was soundly beaten and then dropped back down to 20k claimers at Philly Park and just missed. This is another very ambitious spot. The connections apparently see something in this horse that we don't. I'm figuring that a beyer of at least 90 is going to be achieved here to win and this guy hasn't ran that high in 20 starts. Pass.
2) Wynn Wynn Deal- Part of the pace for sure, this 4yo has been routing versus OC types. The troubling news is that this one hasn't found the winner's circle in over a year. The shortening up in distance should go a long way in adding to his staying power but, I lean towards minor awards for this one.
3) Malibu Kid- Jenkins and Dunkelberger team up with this hard knockin' 5yo. He has proven that he can rate and sit just off the speed. A very logical player and one to contend with.
4) Blackhossnamdwhity- Clearly, this 6yo needed his last race. This is his second race back off of a 14 month layoff. All five career wins have come under the lights at Charles Town. He does have a race over the oval where he cut a half mile in :46 just about 2 lengths behind the pacesetter and then faded. I see the turf to dirt angle as a means of waking up this old guy but, hitting the board versus these seems a tall order.
5) Outsmarting Dixie- Talk about ambitious, this 3yo is a maiden! With only two prior races under his belt, he would have to increase his best beyer fig by over 30 pts to win this race if my gauge of 90 is accurate. Outclassed.
6) Ravalo- Speaking of class. This 6yo guy has earned over $800k in his career. A beaten favorite in his last two, they were against stakes company and he was right in the mix the whole way. Bottom line is, this guy is a hard nosed competitor and never throws a clunker. The price will be short but, should be in the exacta.
7) Purely Precious- Part of the pace, this 4yo should be gunning for the front. However, this guy is dreadfully cheap and I cannot bring myself to punch his number anywhere on my tickets. Restricted claimers just don't fit here.
8) Poppy's Punkin- I am intrigued by this lightly raced 6yo horse. He is a fresh speed and will be in the mix from the outside. I love the price, I love that karamanos is in the irons and I love the fresh lightly raced angle. The negatives.. he has been crushed by Malibu Kid and he may be a "need the lead" type and that is a difficult task 8wide versus these. It seems like his best days were as a 4yo. He only ran twice as a 5yo and this is his 3rd try as a 6yo. I watched the replays of his last three races and he is honest speed and I'm using at a price.
9) Celtic Innis- The favorite of the 2009 version of the Chesapeake, this 8yo old timer is the only one with a win over the track. He led the whole way in 2009 and was nailed on the money. Looking for revenge in this one but, I truly believe his best days are long behind him. Too much respect to completely throw out, use underneath in trifectas.
10) Written In Stone- Popular at the claim box, this Canada shipper was claimed twice in his past three outings for $60k and $62.5k. His best figures have come over conventional dirt and that is exactly what Mike Pino is bringing him here to do. With the far outside post, he may not be able to get up in time and he has been running second lately. A candidate for minor awards.
$1 trifecta 3-6-8 with 2-3-6-8-9-10 with 2-3-6-8-9-10
$4 win on #8
$64 total bet YTD (-5530)
Ravalo will most likely be around even money, we may improve that price if we can hit this trifecta with him on top. If we score with Malibu Kid on top we may make a modest profit and if we can snag Poppy's Punkin on top..
Last edited by Kevroc; 07-20-2010 at 10:57 AM.
07-21-2010
, 11:01 AM
A word about our approach before today's feature race... Posting bet tickets and YTD totals is fun and I do it only in the name of accountability but, unless you are playing horizontal wagers like pick 3's, 4's, 6's.. you don't know where your value is. So, going forward I'm going to post MY morning line in red after every entry. THIS IS NOT THE REAL MORNING LINE. This way, we can measure my line to the parimutual board and find overlays. This way, the bets will make more sense than putting favorites on top in trifectas and having him go off at 3/5 (where we never would have made such a -ev bet). It's kinda like saying you love the Washington Nationals to beat Halladay and then the bookmaker makes the game +120. You aren't taking that price, amirite? So, I'll post a breakdown in the a.m. and wagers in the p.m. around 4-5 MTP.
Feature race of the day
DEL MAR Race 8 *July 21st*
I am leaning towards a trifecta ticket using 2,5,7,9 on top. Maybe with some win tickets or exactas sprinkled in. I will return later with tickets for record keeping but, the whole idea of the "feature race of the day" project is to stimulate conversation about races and approach to the races. Good luck everyone.
Feature race of the day
DEL MAR Race 8 *July 21st*
Quote:
Oceanside Stakes $100k purse for 3yo non-winners of $50k sweeps 1mile Turf
1) Face And An Ace- Brice Blanc rides this 3yo gelding for Paco Gonzalez. He is coming off an upset score going a mile over the grass at Hollywood. A :48.2 half mile is most likely not in the cards today and I expect this "ace" to fold and watch from the rail. RocLine 19:1
2) Very Fair- Mike Smith gets the call on this Hollendorfer colt. There is a TON of speed in this race and this sets up perfectly for a one-run closer. The distance is not a question and when it comes to money races like this, Mikey knows how to get them up in time. He comes in fresh and will be an excellent price. RocLine 6:1
3) Twirling Candy- Candy Ride colt for Sadler and the Craig Trust is two for two, winning two synthetic sprints at HOL. The first was a 36k MSW where he took a field of six wire to wire drilling the half in :45.1 going 7f. The win versus winners was a restricted allowance going 6.5f with a HOT pace that he was right on and blew them away by 7 lengths. This will be the first time going a mile and first time on the grass. No doubt Sadler will have him ready. He is working bullets and is fresh. The 106 beyer fig last time out is probably inflated due to the romp-style victory but, can't dismiss the pace factor. The "mouse" of the Sadler cat and mouse duo, he will probably be overbet and I'm setting my line high on this one. RocLine 4:1
4) Brady Blue Eyes- Tyler gets the leg up on this Sky Mesa colt. His maiden breaker was a front running run going a little over a mile on the HOL synth and his win versus winners was going 6.5f on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita. His figures are poor and I would consider him if the pace wasn't going to be so hot. Plus Rosario comes off.. outsider. RocLine 30:1
5) Hockley- Super consistent A.P.Indy colt has shown ability going the distance and running on the green stuff. He has also shown that he can rate. He has been less than 4:1 in each of his last 5 starts but, I think the m/l guys nailed him at today's price of 5:1. Also, I would definitely play him at that price or higher (which I think he will be with the two Sadler's and the Baffert getting the money).RocLine 5:1
6) Macias- Baffert is hot as a pistol coming into the DMR meet and he rolls into today's feature with the highest earner in the field. Coming out of graded stakes company, this classy colt is part of the pace scenario here. I think this one is the cream of the speeds and lean towards playing him over all the other speeds. His steady 100+ beyer's are a testament to glowing form. I'm setting him a touch higher than the real m/l because I like the closers in this field but, if betting any exotics it would be silly to leave him out. Truthfully, the one to beat. RocLine 7:2
7) Domonation- The "other" Sadler horse in the field, this Maria's Mon colt is the "cat" of the cat and mouse runners. First time turfing but, the dam is out of Mr. Greely and she should take to it. The pace is so hot that Bejarano should have plenty to run at. Also, the workouts have been excellent and the animal is freshened after sprinting at HOL as a beaten favorite. I really like him here. RocLine 5:1
8) Just Magic- First time turf for this Janet Armstrong/Budget Stable colt. Somewhat speedy, this is an overzealous spot for him in my opinion. Comes out of the same race as Twirling Candy and should be chasing that one's tail again. Tab for later. RocLine 50:1
9) Gallant Gent- This one is very interesting. A classy gelding, his last four races were G3, G3, G2 and G1. This is only the second race of his 3yo season after stopping badly in a Delta Downs sloppy route race back in December. His return to the races was a G3 synthetic try going a little over a mile at HOL and he finished only 4 lengths behind the winner (skipshot ran second) posting a 96 beyer. Not bad at all for the first race back. Now a nice little rest and a beautiful string of works later and trying grass for only the second time in his career. The first attempt was against G2 types at Oak Tree as a 2yo where he made a 4wide move and flattened out. Another solid contender in my mind and I'd love to use him. RocLine 6:1
10) Killer Bear- Now, I've been preaching that this race sets up for a closer and this is probably the deepest of the closing types. However, this Northern Devil colt for Steve Knapp is a tad on the cheap side. His greatest success has come against Cal breds and now he has to circle a field with too much zip and class in my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck into the trifecta at a big price but, the top two spots would only be attainable if the whole race fell apart. RocLine 30:1
1) Face And An Ace- Brice Blanc rides this 3yo gelding for Paco Gonzalez. He is coming off an upset score going a mile over the grass at Hollywood. A :48.2 half mile is most likely not in the cards today and I expect this "ace" to fold and watch from the rail. RocLine 19:1
2) Very Fair- Mike Smith gets the call on this Hollendorfer colt. There is a TON of speed in this race and this sets up perfectly for a one-run closer. The distance is not a question and when it comes to money races like this, Mikey knows how to get them up in time. He comes in fresh and will be an excellent price. RocLine 6:1
3) Twirling Candy- Candy Ride colt for Sadler and the Craig Trust is two for two, winning two synthetic sprints at HOL. The first was a 36k MSW where he took a field of six wire to wire drilling the half in :45.1 going 7f. The win versus winners was a restricted allowance going 6.5f with a HOT pace that he was right on and blew them away by 7 lengths. This will be the first time going a mile and first time on the grass. No doubt Sadler will have him ready. He is working bullets and is fresh. The 106 beyer fig last time out is probably inflated due to the romp-style victory but, can't dismiss the pace factor. The "mouse" of the Sadler cat and mouse duo, he will probably be overbet and I'm setting my line high on this one. RocLine 4:1
4) Brady Blue Eyes- Tyler gets the leg up on this Sky Mesa colt. His maiden breaker was a front running run going a little over a mile on the HOL synth and his win versus winners was going 6.5f on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita. His figures are poor and I would consider him if the pace wasn't going to be so hot. Plus Rosario comes off.. outsider. RocLine 30:1
5) Hockley- Super consistent A.P.Indy colt has shown ability going the distance and running on the green stuff. He has also shown that he can rate. He has been less than 4:1 in each of his last 5 starts but, I think the m/l guys nailed him at today's price of 5:1. Also, I would definitely play him at that price or higher (which I think he will be with the two Sadler's and the Baffert getting the money).RocLine 5:1
6) Macias- Baffert is hot as a pistol coming into the DMR meet and he rolls into today's feature with the highest earner in the field. Coming out of graded stakes company, this classy colt is part of the pace scenario here. I think this one is the cream of the speeds and lean towards playing him over all the other speeds. His steady 100+ beyer's are a testament to glowing form. I'm setting him a touch higher than the real m/l because I like the closers in this field but, if betting any exotics it would be silly to leave him out. Truthfully, the one to beat. RocLine 7:2
7) Domonation- The "other" Sadler horse in the field, this Maria's Mon colt is the "cat" of the cat and mouse runners. First time turfing but, the dam is out of Mr. Greely and she should take to it. The pace is so hot that Bejarano should have plenty to run at. Also, the workouts have been excellent and the animal is freshened after sprinting at HOL as a beaten favorite. I really like him here. RocLine 5:1
8) Just Magic- First time turf for this Janet Armstrong/Budget Stable colt. Somewhat speedy, this is an overzealous spot for him in my opinion. Comes out of the same race as Twirling Candy and should be chasing that one's tail again. Tab for later. RocLine 50:1
9) Gallant Gent- This one is very interesting. A classy gelding, his last four races were G3, G3, G2 and G1. This is only the second race of his 3yo season after stopping badly in a Delta Downs sloppy route race back in December. His return to the races was a G3 synthetic try going a little over a mile at HOL and he finished only 4 lengths behind the winner (skipshot ran second) posting a 96 beyer. Not bad at all for the first race back. Now a nice little rest and a beautiful string of works later and trying grass for only the second time in his career. The first attempt was against G2 types at Oak Tree as a 2yo where he made a 4wide move and flattened out. Another solid contender in my mind and I'd love to use him. RocLine 6:1
10) Killer Bear- Now, I've been preaching that this race sets up for a closer and this is probably the deepest of the closing types. However, this Northern Devil colt for Steve Knapp is a tad on the cheap side. His greatest success has come against Cal breds and now he has to circle a field with too much zip and class in my opinion. I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck into the trifecta at a big price but, the top two spots would only be attainable if the whole race fell apart. RocLine 30:1
07-21-2010
, 04:20 PM
DelMar Opening Day!!!
I love DelMar myself,and have done very well here over the last 2 years. To me,it is the best opportunity outside Keeneland to get some very good value to your DD'S and PK 3's. I tend to roll many cards at DelMar that way. Rolling the card i mean from race#1 to #9 playing every DD and PK3 in between them races,this will be probally the extent of my teaching,lol....I am NOT Kev...How he has the time and patience is beyond me,plus im no teacher or want to be to be honest. I think if it helps some of you in this thread,then i am happy,if you need small answers to things,then im your guy lol. I have explained how i cap before here,and to a point i dont mind helping,but i am a VERY competitive person,and dont want to give away any info that i know i have an edge on any of you. Just being honest,ive worked to damn hard at this game,and continue to work my backside off making a dollar.
To go along with Kev's theme he has with ML,we do do this the exact same. We NEVER want to see the ML till we are done capping,then we will see where the value in our eyes lies,and how to bet accordingly....And thats the thing about horses that loses soooo many people to be honest,theres the Capping,and theres the Betting....Several people can cap,not everyone knows how to bet correct to make a buck....I think what Kev is doing should help some of you see the difference in the 2,and should help.
So Kev if you get carpal tunnel its your own damn fault!
I will give a couple tidbits...1st year John White is doing the ML at DelMar. He should be similar to what he was with the Santa Anita meet,the track plays similar with front speed never holding on the MT,and the Turf will be close to Santa Anita also.
Just watching today,have to stay disciplined sometimes,part of the game,but will be watching all the honeys with the colorful hats on opening day.
I love DelMar myself,and have done very well here over the last 2 years. To me,it is the best opportunity outside Keeneland to get some very good value to your DD'S and PK 3's. I tend to roll many cards at DelMar that way. Rolling the card i mean from race#1 to #9 playing every DD and PK3 in between them races,this will be probally the extent of my teaching,lol....I am NOT Kev...How he has the time and patience is beyond me,plus im no teacher or want to be to be honest. I think if it helps some of you in this thread,then i am happy,if you need small answers to things,then im your guy lol. I have explained how i cap before here,and to a point i dont mind helping,but i am a VERY competitive person,and dont want to give away any info that i know i have an edge on any of you. Just being honest,ive worked to damn hard at this game,and continue to work my backside off making a dollar.
To go along with Kev's theme he has with ML,we do do this the exact same. We NEVER want to see the ML till we are done capping,then we will see where the value in our eyes lies,and how to bet accordingly....And thats the thing about horses that loses soooo many people to be honest,theres the Capping,and theres the Betting....Several people can cap,not everyone knows how to bet correct to make a buck....I think what Kev is doing should help some of you see the difference in the 2,and should help.
So Kev if you get carpal tunnel its your own damn fault!
I will give a couple tidbits...1st year John White is doing the ML at DelMar. He should be similar to what he was with the Santa Anita meet,the track plays similar with front speed never holding on the MT,and the Turf will be close to Santa Anita also.
Just watching today,have to stay disciplined sometimes,part of the game,but will be watching all the honeys with the colorful hats on opening day.
07-21-2010
, 04:35 PM
07-21-2010
, 06:52 PM
