worried most about the 6th race, and low and behold.... oh well. crushed everything else, hit the early pk4 (very chalky). made about $100 betting Monmouth today... would have been nice to hit that pk5 though.

Take $100 everytime at the track Walk,glass half full my man. I also know you watch Call Me Honcho also,he ran in the 9th a 32k 6f claimer on the grass,1st time on the turf i believe...got the show money (7.60)..also he had a wicked turn of foot the last 1f,and galloped out very nice,ahead of winner. Looks like hes versatile,but may need a tad longer on the green.

Aslo,thought the same as you a few weeks back when i knew GoGo,and Johhny V were headed to Monmouth,ol Jersey Joe Bravo wasnt none too happy im sure.

I had Call Me Honcho in my late pk4. But was dead after the 2nd leg.

He ran well. This seems like a horse that can have a nice winnings throughout his career if he's managed well. Seems to like the competition.

Kev/Honcho, Ive been playing horses for over a decade, mostly losing and ive come to this theory regarding handicapping. While not completly worthless, I tend to throw out speed figures and times. My cousin handicaps also, and he goes crazy with times of races, " he'll be like omg this horse ran 6f in 1:07, etc....". I just think that each race is an entity unto itself, and jus bc a horse ran a certain time another day doesnt really mean hes going to run back to it. Theres jus soooo many factors that play into it, track condition, the weather that day, whether a trainer really wanted to push a horse.

So when i bet i dont go crazy pouring through the racing form, i look for value, try to identify bad favorites, and i bet trying to get " lucky" rather than pick a horse to win, For example if i dont like a particular horse,I'll try to beat him by using the other horses in pk3's or doubles, and hope to catch a nice price. Just wanted your guys opinions on which style of handicapping you think is better--

Trimmed Quote...

Good post. On one hand, I agree that race, trainer and horse-specific factors make it very difficult to assess whether or not a horse is capable of repeating or improving upon past performances.

1- Broad dissemination and acceptance of Beyer speed figures, while a breakthrough when conceived and held privately throughout the 1970's and 80's, have mostly removed value from horses that were demonstratively faster then others that raced on different tracks, days, and under different conditions. On the other hand, the publication of trip, wind and variant adjusted speed figures (notably in Ragozin figures, then evolved into Thoro-graph figures) have highlighted even finer distinctions between the fastest and fittest horses. Additionally, there are noticeable patterns in thoroughbred efforts that have provided me with insight into opportunities for value because they remain mostly hidden from "public" money. Personally, I'm glad pattern/cycle/form handicapping is an art that remains mostly hidden from public view because I can identify vulnerable favorites who are statistically more likely to "throw a clunker" and profit from it.

2- Trainer's intentions... ugh. Whether it's a prep race, a drop-down horse with soundness issues vs. a trainer/owner looking for a score or doping issues, it is nearly impossible to read between the lines. Even published trainer/owner comments are difficult to read into. Here is a perfect example of this. For me, I steer clear of MSW, MCL, and CL races (especially for lower tier tracks/purses), because these races are loaded with wild cards. I find the most consistency in trainers/horses who race for the highest purses at the main tracks in allowance and stake races. Also, in the latter, I remain confident that trainers are looking to prime their best stock for their best performances in 75k+ races. Additionally, we gain the added beneift of having the most "dead" money in the pools where there are inflated odds of our live horses b/c more casual handicappers are looking to beat the game.

3- I agree that pick three's and doubles can offer considerable value when "tossing chalk." Coupled with exactas, triples and superfectas, this is my most profitable angle. There's usually a story to horses with x-to-5 odds, and when the story is incongruent with the odds being offered, I place my largest and widest wagers in these pools to capitalize on it.

To you, what constitutes a "bad favorite?"

Great post, to me a bad fave is one of those horses whos like 1-28 in his career, but because he consistently runs competive figures he takes money.Or it can be a horse trying the turf for the first time. or streching out and he goes off 3/5. My main point was you can read the racing form for 5 hours and you still cant really be sure of anything, its still a crapshoot. I think the only way to beat this game is to look for horses that you think are overbet, rather than look for horses you like to win.

Well for each person it is different i suppose Brooklyn,but i agree with going against favorites,you have to to be successful in this game. I watch the horses every Wed-Sun,i have a good feel for most of the connections in the SoCal circuit,and my retention is well above normal im sure,i just remember things when i see them well,hard to explain.

I have my own way of capping,and to be short,when i am thru capping,i look over each race to see where the value is,if its pk4's.3's.DD's,all,etc....I also see value in chalk,if i really like a horse i will make a fair Win wager on him,and also put him on top of an exacta,tri ticket,or single him to try and create value around him with multiple races such as the pk3 or 4's.

I am not looking to break the bank each day,im looking to turn a profit each day. I am all for taking shots at bigger scores,such as pk6's,but i am very selective in which ones i do. I have established a decent bankroll from this game,and have stayed disciplined to myself.

Perfect example of using chalk to your advantage was today at Hollywood in the 3rd....Early fav was 1/9 in a 10 horse field,and the rest of the horses were 25-1 or greater....To me this just SCREAMS free $$$....I placed a $6 exacta and played it 10x (i know i could of just played it for $60,i do things odd) my ticket was 5/1,3,4,6,8,9....$60 total investment....made $407...total profit $347...Didnt break the bank,turned a profit,and will get on till tomorrow.

I didnt even cap the card today,just the tote made this play so obvious.

Despite my loc, I don't advocate tossing chalk as a rule of thumb, but my ROI is better using live horses going off at longer odds. At the same time, I'm not against sending it in on horses at shorter prices when the situation calls for it. Same as how you played Scottish Diamond, I wind up using short horses in exotics when there is angle I like with value.

That said, I don't have statistics on the frequency of horses that win at 1-to-9 (or 1/2/3-to-5) in cheap maiden claiming races and the corresponding average exacta pay-outs using partial/full wheels. I can't imagine this is a profitable angle.

Not having handicapped the race, and selecting a few horses for 2nd place blind, this sounds more like an action play then a profitable strategy long-term. Not that there's anything wrong with that, I kill time in between spots with plays like this as well...

I know its kinda late, but i like a horse in the Belmont finale, Race 9 #2 strikealinthruit. 2nd time starter streching out on the turf, his maiden race he had a nightmare trip and was steadied throughout, and still closed well to finish 5/11. I dont like the fave Considerate, im using the 2 horse and playing him over the 1-7-10

Speaking of tossing chalk here, I am throwing out Katy Now in the 8th at Belmont, and played (mostly) a cold exacta Reforestation over Goodday (2-3).

yea the 4 is def worth trying to beat, i like the 6 horse a lil bit asa price

Bah, well I beat the short-priced Mott off an injury lay-off in the 3rd for a bloated exacta. Still, I'm 0-for-lifetime with posted picks. A + day, but bleh.

Hollywood late pick four friday night!

5) 1-2-3-5-7
6) 3
7) 2-3-6-8
8) 3-6-11-14-15-16

$120 play

YTD (-4124)

After yesterdays debacle, in todays 6th race at Belmont, I like a few horses to use in p3/doubles. Im against the morning line fave, Chicks in Slacks. The two main horses I like are Can she dance, and starsilhouette. Also Im going to use Whats the verdict and Soupabuttfly. Best of Luck--

I'm taking the family to Belmont Park tomorrow (sunday).. it will be the first time for them!

As for today...

MONMOUTH PARK .50 pick five

6) 8
7) 2-3-4-6
8) 1-4-11-12
9) 1-2-4-7
10) 3-6-10

$96 play

YTD (-4220)

i am going to arlington on monday... it will be my first time too (as an adult)


w00t

BIG BIG tip for Kingsmoss which is running at 8.40pm BST @ Cartmel.

RACE COURSE - CARTMEL
HORSENAME - KINGSMOSS
TIME - 8.40BST

fingers crossed here.

glgl.

Bloody punters!.....

Useless ****ing ****!

bleh.

Good luck Lep!

As for me.. just burning dollars.. nothing to see here...

CHARLES TOWN .50 pick four

2) 2-3-5-6-7-9
3) 2-4-5-9-10
4) 1
5) 2-5

$30 play

YTD (-4250)

Nailed Hour glass in the 9th race at Belmont, have ALL going in the double in the last leg, BOMBS AWAY!!!

I'm a very casual horse player and am not toting a system. I deposited $100 in my TVG account yesterday. I hadn't used it since 2007 when I was a poker dealer/player in Spokane at a small casino. Anywho, I had a friend who liked to just watch the tote board and plop down a wps ($5-$10-$15) bet on the second favorite just before posttime.

I use $2-$3-$4 and only bet with the following criteria:
field size 6 or less = no bet
field size 7-9 second fav with odds 3-1 or better
field size 10+ third fav with odds 4-1 or better

If fave is lower than 1-1 (ie 3-5) = no bet
I place the bet with current odds at 1 min to post or later.
If there is a tie between second or third favs pick the one with an overlay to ml odds or pass on the bet.
I also don't bet the first or last race on a card.

My results for 5/29:

Mth R4 #8 Manteca paid $8.00 $3.80 $3.20 net $11.40
Mth R5 #9 Mumbo paid $4.60 $3.40 net $4.70
Mth R6 #7 Whoopi Kitten $25.20 $8.40 $5.60 net $40.0 (think he went off as 4th fav)
Mth R8 #5 Charmingmegan $11.80 $.40 $4.20 net $19.30

Total profit for the 4 races was $75.10

It was fun screaming at the TV again!

I realize it won't work in the long run but it is for entertainment only. Day one bought me about 8 more races of yelling and cheering and cursing!!