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Old 04-28-2010, 06:50 PM   #1351
Kevroc
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by armyof1 View Post
I know squat about handicapping so I will ship like $5 on PS for someones picks for the day. Looking @ you Honcho, Discreetcat, naj, or Kevroc. I will probably be going to track that day so it would be great to just place a bunch of bets and pray as I try to not to pass out from over drinking. Should be fun regardless and if not I could always just bet on my man Calvin Borel or the pretty colors.
I give out my opinions for free, always. (you aint gonna make no money with them anyway!, lol)

I like Awesome Act but, don't know how I'm playing it yet.

The funny thing is that on Saturday, I will be investing over $500 on the Beulah Park Fortune Six mandatory pay-out.

It is a 25 cent pick six wager that has been running for over a month. It pays 100% of the pool to anyone who successfully selects 6 for 6 AND IS THE ONLY WINNING TICKET. If more than one person correctly picks six winners, they distribute 40% of the pool and carryover 60%.

It has run all the way up to $445,000.

Saturday, they are paying out the entire pool NO MATTER WHAT.

That is a huge value and experts are predicting a pool in excess of $750,000 even on derby day.

I can buy 2,000 combinations for $500 and I will be going for it.

It could pay $5,000 even with all chalks.. it is a golden opportunity to snag a bloated payout, lots of dead money to be scooped.
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Old 04-28-2010, 07:06 PM   #1352
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by armyof1 View Post
I know squat about handicapping so I will ship like $5 on PS for someones picks for the day. Looking @ you Honcho, Discreetcat, naj, or Kevroc. I will probably be going to track that day so it would be great to just place a bunch of bets and pray as I try to not to pass out from over drinking. Should be fun regardless and if not I could always just bet on my man Calvin Borel or the pretty colors.
Filly with the prettiest tail has worked for me with Rachel A and Rags to Riches....

Given opening odds I am leaning: Super Saver, Devil May Care, American Lion. Gotta see where the odds are hour before the race tho. Would include the fave in all exotics at 3-1.

Last edited by NajdorfDefense; 04-28-2010 at 07:20 PM.
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Old 04-28-2010, 07:34 PM   #1353
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevroc View Post
I give out my opinions for free, always. (you aint gonna make no money with them anyway!, lol)

I like Awesome Act but, don't know how I'm playing it yet.

The funny thing is that on Saturday, I will be investing over $500 on the Beulah Park Fortune Six mandatory pay-out.

It is a 25 cent pick six wager that has been running for over a month. It pays 100% of the pool to anyone who successfully selects 6 for 6 AND IS THE ONLY WINNING TICKET. If more than one person correctly picks six winners, they distribute 40% of the pool and carryover 60%.

It has run all the way up to $445,000.

Saturday, they are paying out the entire pool NO MATTER WHAT.

That is a huge value and experts are predicting a pool in excess of $750,000 even on derby day.

I can buy 2,000 combinations for $500 and I will be going for it.

It could pay $5,000 even with all chalks.. it is a golden opportunity to snag a bloated payout, lots of dead money to be scooped.
Holy ****!

Michigan's graduation is Saturday, so we are planning a trip to Detroit to get the hell out of Ann Arbor (even though I'm graduating. Obama's speaking, and there's NFW we're waiting in those lines!). Slow's BBQ and the Detroit Institute of Arts.

I wonder if I could talk the gf into a trip to Columbus instead. Hmmm. Might have to settle for OTB
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Old 04-28-2010, 09:53 PM   #1354
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I'm polling various womens in my life for some lul bets.
Basically my "stable's" stable. will post updates
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Old 04-28-2010, 11:06 PM   #1355
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

First off,this is awesome!!! Im not bragging or patting myself on the back here,but this thread is HUGE now and i couldnt be happier. It got started basicaly because Kev was sick of me cluttering up the sports section with my capped cards,now look at us...Very Cool...

Wyman glad to see you,live in MI myself,and U of M saved my life! As for Slow's BBQ,Fahgetaboutit...Best BBQ Detroit has to offer bar none...Like to hit it when im done playing cards in Greektown,and after a Tiger game my son and i will Hit American Coney (prefer over Lafeyette)...just a stumble down Woodward a couple blocks.

Army like Kev said we give capped cards,exotics,and all kinds of other plays here often,just our opinions obv,but i think we do fairly well.

FTR i am on Lookin at Lucky for the Derby,have $200 @ 6-1 i put in about 6 weeks ago,and will at least put that much on him on Saturday. I also like Paddy O' Praddo chances,but only will be using him in my exotics. I also cant get away from Blind Luck in the Oaks,wish i could find better prices,but thats who i think will win. The Derby is a ideal opportunity to play many many exotics,because the prices are going to be very well worth it,i dont normaly play supers or tri's,but i will be on Saturday for sure,to good of an +EV opportunity.

Going to miss out on the Hillbilly Outfield Party this year,and that sucks!!,i look forward to that each year it is such a fantastic time,and cause...Just cant travel because of health at the moment,but hope some fellow 2+2er's get a chance,it is a great time.

Going to have to make a ticket for Beulah myself considering,Kev gave out some great info about it a few post above,Good Luck everyone.
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Old 04-29-2010, 12:51 AM   #1356
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

beulah entries
http://equibase.com/static/entry/BEU...EQB.html#RACE3

pick six is races 3-8
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Old 04-29-2010, 01:34 AM   #1357
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Can someone talk me off of Super Saver? Total speed horse who's never passed anybody, and perhaps I like him just because Borel will be on him...

Also, Honcho, what do you mean by playing many exotics? I'll be taking my 4 fav for a boxed tri. What beyond that? Mix favorites with way long shots? Box several long shots?

I'm a complete n00b so thanks for the help.

Tical
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Old 04-29-2010, 02:07 AM   #1358
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wyman View Post
beulah entries
http://equibase.com/static/entry/BEU...EQB.html#RACE3

pick six is races 3-8
Yuri Yaranga and Joe Woodard are the nuts as far as jockey/trainer combos up there @ BEU.

They have an entry in the first and second legs and a few other mounts in the sequence.

Don't leave these guys off of your ticket. They are chalky but, prices do not matter here.. there is already value in the pool. We just need winners.

Good luck everyone.

Also, when handicapping the card.. remember to look closely at the CONDITIONS of the races. There are many different types of races written for these old horses. There is even an 11yo nag entered! lol

For example, look at the conditions of the first leg: For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $5,000 Or Less At The 2010 Beulah Park Winter/spring Meet.

Look at the past performances and see which horses fit the conditions better than the others and you will have a better understanding of the animals you are dealing with.

Handicapping these low level horses can be frustrating as they are inconsistent. But, looking at conditions and getting a feel for why the handlers put their horses in certain spots, can help you along.
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Old 04-29-2010, 08:21 AM   #1359
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by NajdorfDefense View Post
Filly with the prettiest tail has worked for me with Rachel A and Rags to Riches....

Given opening odds I am leaning: Super Saver, Devil May Care, American Lion. Gotta see where the odds are hour before the race tho. Would include the fave in all exotics at 3-1.
I have to imagine the favorite goes off at 7/2 at the best, probably closer to 5/1

Who is best on an off track? Right now I know Backtalk has won and Paddy O'Prado should be good as well. Conveyance looked good in some slop in his work on Tuesday.
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Old 04-29-2010, 09:49 AM   #1360
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tical View Post
Also, Honcho, what do you mean by playing many exotics? I'll be taking my 4 fav for a boxed tri. What beyond that? Mix favorites with way long shots? Box several long shots?
It's very unlikely that 4 favorites will be in the tri. Usually a long shot will get up for third, and maybe second. And that's a good thing because that means more $$$$$. Your job is to identify those long shots that have a chance of being there in the end. For a race of this length, I would stay away from front running horses, as they tend to fade in the stretch.
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Old 04-29-2010, 01:39 PM   #1361
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevroc View Post
I give out my opinions for free, always. (you aint gonna make no money with them anyway!, lol)

I like Awesome Act but, don't know how I'm playing it yet.

The funny thing is that on Saturday, I will be investing over $500 on the Beulah Park Fortune Six mandatory pay-out.

It is a 25 cent pick six wager that has been running for over a month. It pays 100% of the pool to anyone who successfully selects 6 for 6 AND IS THE ONLY WINNING TICKET. If more than one person correctly picks six winners, they distribute 40% of the pool and carryover 60%.

It has run all the way up to $445,000.

Saturday, they are paying out the entire pool NO MATTER WHAT.

That is a huge value and experts are predicting a pool in excess of $750,000 even on derby day.

I can buy 2,000 combinations for $500 and I will be going for it.

It could pay $5,000 even with all chalks.. it is a golden opportunity to snag a bloated payout, lots of dead money to be scooped.
So even with the mandatory payout you can bet 25 cents? I have heard of this before and I mean it's nearly inpossible to have 1 winning ticket. There will be so many different combos out there. But just like you said could even see a $5,000 payout.
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Old 04-29-2010, 01:39 PM   #1362
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Oh and wow is it going to be a huge betting day Saturday!
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Old 04-29-2010, 01:43 PM   #1363
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Trying to figure out some really good bets for the Derby. I mean ofcourse TRI's are amazing but it's so hard to pick just the damn winner.

I am going to bet the Pick 4 with last leg ending on the Kentucky Derby and just spread deep in the Derby. Just pray I make it to the last leg
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Old 04-29-2010, 02:09 PM   #1364
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Originally Posted by LeftGuard View Post
Trying to figure out some really good bets for the Derby. I mean ofcourse TRI's are amazing but it's so hard to pick just the damn winner.
Why not put more than one horse in the top spot of the tri?
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Old 04-29-2010, 03:03 PM   #1365
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Two things I learned so far in handicapping this race. Eskendreya would have been 6/5 or lower in this field and the potential for rain and a sloppy track should not effect the race too much. Enough of these horses have a mud pedigree that it really should have no effect rain or shine, imo.
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Old 04-29-2010, 03:34 PM   #1366
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tical View Post
Can someone talk me off of Super Saver? Total speed horse who's never passed anybody, and perhaps I like him just because Borel will be on him...

Also, Honcho, what do you mean by playing many exotics? I'll be taking my 4 fav for a boxed tri. What beyond that? Mix favorites with way long shots? Box several long shots?

I'm a complete n00b so thanks for the help.

Tical
What i meant was that i will have several different tri's,and super's,with different horses keyed,and reverse wheels as well. In this race also you could say for example place a min $2 win on 10 different longshots and if it hits one of them it would be +EV....Look at MTB last year...Now to have a reverse wheel with MTB included on top,paid huge for tri's and supers...Myself i am going to play close to 1K on just the KD itself...But most of all Tical do what YOU think is right,its your money your investing...Good Luck

And Army,$5 thats what you think of our capping,lol....
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Old 04-29-2010, 04:26 PM   #1367
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by M.Honcho View Post
What i meant was that i will have several different tri's,and super's,with different horses keyed,and reverse wheels as well. In this race also you could say for example place a min $2 win on 10 different longshots and if it hits one of them it would be +EV....Look at MTB last year...Now to have a reverse wheel with MTB included on top,paid huge for tri's and supers...Myself i am going to play close to 1K on just the KD itself...But most of all Tical do what YOU think is right,its your money your investing...Good Luck

And Army,$5 thats what you think of our capping,lol....
I didn't mean it like that but that's like 10% of my roll on PS lol
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Old 04-29-2010, 04:33 PM   #1368
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

^^^
I know what you meant Army,was just having fun with ya...
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Old 04-29-2010, 05:06 PM   #1369
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Is there any real difference between Youbet.com and Twinspires.com?
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Old 04-29-2010, 05:23 PM   #1370
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Well Army the short answer is not really....I use both incase 1 is down i have a backup. Personal preference i suppose to some,some may like Youbets software over Twinspires,but both very solid imo.
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Old 04-29-2010, 05:34 PM   #1371
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Thanks Honcho
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Old 04-29-2010, 06:32 PM   #1372
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevroc View Post
Yuri Yaranga and Joe Woodard are the nuts as far as jockey/trainer combos up there @ BEU.

They have an entry in the first and second legs and a few other mounts in the sequence.

Don't leave these guys off of your ticket. They are chalky but, prices do not matter here.. there is already value in the pool. We just need winners.

Good luck everyone.

Also, when handicapping the card.. remember to look closely at the CONDITIONS of the races. There are many different types of races written for these old horses. There is even an 11yo nag entered! lol

For example, look at the conditions of the first leg: For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $5,000 Or Less At The 2010 Beulah Park Winter/spring Meet.

Look at the past performances and see which horses fit the conditions better than the others and you will have a better understanding of the animals you are dealing with.

Handicapping these low level horses can be frustrating as they are inconsistent. But, looking at conditions and getting a feel for why the handlers put their horses in certain spots, can help you along.
I'll be shooting you a text tonight before I DL the form
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Old 04-29-2010, 07:07 PM   #1373
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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I'll be shooting you a text tonight before I DL the form
I'll be downloading the equibase premium pp's, if you want to get the same one's as me.
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Old 04-29-2010, 11:21 PM   #1374
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by RollyFingas View Post
For a race of this length, I would stay away from front running horses, as they tend to fade in the stretch.
This is completely untrue in the Derby, yet this myth persists. War Emblem wire to wire a few years back with one of the 10 fastest runnings ever, Go For Gin wire to wire in the mud before that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eIDjueaVvqQ&feature=fvw

Winning Colors did it as a filly in 88.
Spend A Buck wired the field and only had the 4th fastest time ever.

Hard Spun led the whole way until the last 50yds and if 18 other horses hadn't let the favorite pass them all on the rail, he would have won easily. [Which I STILL cant friggin' believe they let Borail go by them all on the rail. $%#%&@!] Funny Cide and Smarty essentially sat in 2nd on the inside until they made their move, saving ground the whole way, virtually the same thing.

The only issue is, does the good front-running horse run well enough with the extra distance. We know *nothing* about any of these horses at this distance, but several winners have led around the track [2 dozen].

Great front-running horses don't have to become stalkers or deep closers just because they're at Churchill Downs, and stalkers don't automatically become better at distance.
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Old 04-29-2010, 11:36 PM   #1375
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Also, War Emblem went off over 20-1 because people didn't like front-runners. Gonna see similar things this year, just don't know which horses are for real until 2 minutes after post...
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