Here's an interesting question i just thought of. With the defection of Eskendereya, which horse who ran his last race on dirt will take the most money in the Derby?

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's the Sunland Derby winner Endorsement.

Take your pick from this list:

Awesome Act
Mission Impazible
Ice Box
Dublin
Super Saver
Line Of David
Noble's Promise
American Lion
Endorsement
Conveyance

Wow, just got put up in the finale at Tampa.

Havent had one of those go my way in awhile!

Ship the .50 pick four for $1200.

Ok money 1st.....Very nice Kev,but i recall you told me last year around this time to stay away from Tampa,you said large fields and a crap shoot...so what are you doin?

Discreet,if i had to pick 1 from your list it would be Ice Box,but like your choice as well.

lol, I had $37 in my twinspires and was planning on reloading for the May 1st Beulah Park fortune six must-pay.

So I found a track that took .50 pick fours and made a ticket!

Weeeeee lol

TAM #3 $0.50 Pick-4 2,4,8,​WT,3,7,​WT,6,7,​WT,1,2,4,5,9 none $ 30.00 $ 118.10 + $ 88.10

then...

TAM #7 $0.50 Pick-4 3,4,8,9,​WT,1,2,6,9,​WT,1,2,​WT,1,3,5,6,8 none $ 80.00 $ 1279.60 + $ 1199.60

Congrats Kev!

Thanks Cat..playing this HOL late pick 4 too.. i prolly should just chill till next weekend but, im curious how far i can run this 37 bucks today!.. lol so degen..

Oh well, there goes that.. I went 3 deep in 6 horse field and didnt have the favorite.

Favorite won.. wasted beating a 4/5 shot in first leg too!

+880 on the day.. I'll take it.

Almost time to start handicapping the derby. It's that time of year again for us seasonal degens

Devil may Care?

Conveyance?

Some of these guys have been h'capping the derby since the BC juvy!

Assuming Matchbook will put up a market when the field is set (Wednesday?). Anyone know what kind of action to expect there?

making a twinspires account for the derby. anyone have a promo code or want me to be referred by them??

Just heard they're calling for a 50% chance of thunderstorms on Derby Day. Hopefully that'll change...

Are you going to be in attendance, or would you prefer to handicap without the mud as a factor?

Just curious. Sometimes I like handicapping a sloppy race track, but for the KD, it seems like more of an event when it's nice weather.

I love rain at the Derby/sloppy track...people don't adjust even a little. Cf. Go for Gin and others for more details [8-1, lololo]

Where would you guys be without dead money like me?

^^^
LOL Chromakey.....Your always welcome!

No, i'll be watching the race on tv. As far as handicapping for mud, i would never do that this far out from the race. It does appear that might be the case however, so just something to keep in mind. I much prefer a dry Derby, but what are you gonna do? What's kind of interesting about it this year is that the track has been muddy for the last several days, so many of the Derby horses have worked over the Churchill mud. That might give you a little more of a clue than you would have in most off-track Derbys, should the track indeed come up wet on Saturday.

Btw, here are the latest odds from the Wynn:


Lookin at Lucky 3/1

Sidney's Candy 5/1

Dublin 10/1

Noble's Promise 10/1

Ice Box 11/1

Super Saver 12/1

Awesome Act 12/1

Endorsement 15/1

Mission Impazible 18/1

Conveyance 18/1

Jackson Bend 20/1

Devil May Care 20/1

Discreetly MIne 24/1

Homeboykris 25/1

Line of David 28/1

Paddy O'Prado 28/1

Stately Victor 40/1

Dean's Kitten 45/1

Interactif 50/1

Backtalk 60/1

Interactif supposedly not entered, which gets Backtalk into the field.

Endorsement scratched with an injury. Replaced by Make Music For Me.

I have gambling friends that are going (she said they go every year). While it would be nicer in nice weather, people will still be drinkin' and socializing and gambling and partying.

I am thinking it will be more than 50% chance of rain by the time Saturday rolls around. I am thinking sloppy track. My horse will still be live on a sloppy track.

I'm not a huge fan of looking at lucky's post position. Not a huge fan of sidney's candy's post position either.

With all the speed in this race, the pace could be blazing, and set up for a closer to come from way back. But knowing that, I think the "speed horse" that controls his pace the best may be able to win this thing going away.

I love kentucky derby week. Need to do some more preliminary hanidcapping, and will give my thoughts and wagers later in the week.

I would love to hear some discussion on predictions for the way the race will go, pace discussions, longshots, horses we can strike from the race, and everyone's bets.

Post positions drawn:

1. Lookin At Lucky
2. Ice Box
3. Noble's Promise
4. Super Saver
5. Line Of David
6. Stately Victor
7. American Lion
8. Dean's Kitten
9. Make Music For Me
10. Paddy O'Prado
11. Devil May Care
12. Conveyance
13. Jackson Bend
14. Mission Impazible
15. Discretely Mine
16. Awesome Act
17. Dublin
18. Backtalk
19. Homeboykris
20. Sidney's Candy

Here are the post positions and the number of wins since 1900:

1 – 12
2 – 9
3 – 8
4 – 10
5 – 12
6 – 6
7 – 8
8 – 10
9 – 4
10 – 10
11 – 3
12 – 3
13 – 4
14 – 2
15 – 3
16 – 3
17 – 0
18 – 1
19 – 0
20 - 2

I know squat about handicapping so I will ship like $5 on PS for someones picks for the day. Looking @ you Honcho, Discreetcat, naj, or Kevroc. I will probably be going to track that day so it would be great to just place a bunch of bets and pray as I try to not to pass out from over drinking. Should be fun regardless and if not I could always just bet on my man Calvin Borel or the pretty colors.

Weather Forecast:

70% Chance of rain/storms
High mid 70's