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Old 04-08-2010, 02:01 AM   #1276
Bigj5t4n
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Hi, I'm a frequent lurker of 2+2 and I just stumbled across this thread and was wondering if anyone here plays Arlington Park much?

I live near there and go to the track pretty frequently during the summer. I would say I'm pretty much a beginner as far as horse racing goes. I've read Beyer on Speed, and Betting Thoroughbreds by Steve Davidowitz but that's pretty much the extent of my racing knowledge.

If anyone has any advice/insight for a beginner, other good books, websites etc. to check out I'd love to hear it.
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Old 04-08-2010, 02:06 AM   #1277
Kevroc
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Omaha, you mentioned the rags.

We haven't spoken about ragozin's in this thread.

Have you always used them? Anything you can tell us about them?

Also guys.. I'm looking for places to play the Beulah Park Fortune Six.

It is a .25 pick six that ONLY PAYS THE JACKPOT IF THERE IS ONE WINNING TICKET.

The jackpot is over $300k right now!

I can't play it locally because my off-track parlour has $1 minimum bets, which would disqualify me from winning the jackpot if I had the only winning sequence.

Twinspires might take the action but, I need to verify some info to deposit there and I fear it may not get authorized before the next live racing day at BEU, which is Saturday April 10th.
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Old 04-08-2010, 02:10 AM   #1278
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bigj5t4n View Post
Hi, I'm a frequent lurker of 2+2 and I just stumbled across this thread and was wondering if anyone here plays Arlington Park much?

I live near there and go to the track pretty frequently during the summer. I would say I'm pretty much a beginner as far as horse racing goes. I've read Beyer on Speed, and Betting Thoroughbreds by Steve Davidowitz but that's pretty much the extent of my racing knowledge.

If anyone has any advice/insight for a beginner, other good books, websites etc. to check out I'd love to hear it.

AP is a nice track but, I usually chase carryovers and we dont see many big ones there. However, they get nice sized fields and their pick four's can be sweet.

I reccommend Brad Free's "Handicapping 101", for learning how to use all of the available handicapping data properly and I would reccommend Steve Crist's "Exotic Betting" for learning strategies regarding "horizontal wagers".. (pick threes, pick fours, pick sixes, etc)
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Old 04-08-2010, 02:40 AM   #1279
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

BigJ, My man Kevroc speaks the truth,great place to start as he indicated.

Kev,for Twinspires,i believe you can fax them what info needed and indicate why you want it done asap,sure they wont have a problem getting you set up in time. I am fairly positive the OS books wont ever offer that wager from Beulah,but ive been wrong before....once

Looking at the replays now for tomorrows SA card,short fields in the Late PK4,saw something odd though...2 horses in the 8th have a combined 51 starts with no W,more than the rest of the field combined...just looks to be an ugly 8th.
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Old 04-08-2010, 01:12 PM   #1280
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Keeneland - Race 2

#2 Saturday Dance (9/2 ml)

2yo firster for Larry Demeritte worked heads-up three straight times with Weekend Wildcat, who ran a huge race on opening day to miss by just a nose at the wire to the heavily-bet Asmussen horse in 51 3/5 seconds. Same owners here, and the same rider aloft. Should run well.
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Old 04-08-2010, 01:58 PM   #1281
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Keeneland - Race 2

#2 Saturday Dance (9/2 ml)

2yo firster for Larry Demeritte worked heads-up three straight times with Weekend Wildcat, who ran a huge race on opening day to miss by just a nose at the wire to the heavily-bet Asmussen horse in 51 3/5 seconds. Same owners here, and the same rider aloft. Should run well.
Ran third @ 4/1, beaten a couple of lengths.
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Old 04-08-2010, 03:58 PM   #1282
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Santa Anita 4/8/10

3.) 3-2
4.) 5-6
5.) 5-1-3
6.) 3-6-5
7.) 1-4-2
8.) 6-2-7

GL
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Old 04-09-2010, 07:20 AM   #1283
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Mizzurka 5:30 Aintree @ 7/1 is my pick of the day fwiw
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Old 04-09-2010, 08:05 AM   #1284
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Nice thread gents.

Know very little about the horse racing markets, but I've just received the dreaded "Big Tip" which has resulted in me placing a fairly large sum on Niche Market e/w in tomorrows Grand National.

I'm told this is his race

Thoughts/flaming/LMAO's/positives are all appreciated?
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Old 04-10-2010, 02:56 AM   #1285
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Seems solid at 18's but the GN is such a lotto it'll be hard to tell, if you are going for each way value bet365 are giving you 1/4 odds on top five, whilst most others are only paying top 4 at 1/4.
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Old 04-10-2010, 07:39 AM   #1286
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Any other fancies for the National?

Black Apalachi seems really solid, I'll certainly be having a play on that.

As above thats the secon time today I have heard someone say Niche Market has been tipped up strongly. Think I'll take another look at that one.
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Old 04-10-2010, 07:56 AM   #1287
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

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Seems solid at 18's but the GN is such a lotto it'll be hard to tell, if you are going for each way value bet365 are giving you 1/4 odds on top five, whilst most others are only paying top 4 at 1/4.
Yeh have done anyway thanks, Bet365 seems to be where I do most of my betting nowadays. Has really improved over the last few years.
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Old 04-10-2010, 08:28 AM   #1288
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Little bet on each of these guys just for the fun of it:

Niche Market 24-1
Tricky Trickster 24-1
Ballyholland 38-1

Ballyholland and Niche Market I keep hearing about.
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Old 04-10-2010, 08:29 AM   #1289
adthedon
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

backing Preists Leap, Comply or Die and My Will in the GN

hopefully 1 will pay off
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Old 04-10-2010, 10:00 AM   #1290
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Ouch for Ruby. Got trampled on and doesnt look good. Could well be out of the national. Big Fella Thanks will need a new jockey by the looks of it
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Old 04-10-2010, 10:33 AM   #1291
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

wow, Niche Market backed down to 16/1 now, I think it started around 28/1 this morning.

Big fella not having Ruby on board is gonna drift pretty strong in the betting now I think.In fact it's out to 10/1 now from 7/1 earlier.

Gl to all having a punt in this.
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Old 04-10-2010, 11:29 AM   #1292
OMGdougLEE
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

I had a tenner on Dont Push It at 22-1.. Cheers Tony
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Old 04-10-2010, 11:56 AM   #1293
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

DUBLIN is my pick for the day and the ragozins are by far the best horse racing instrument out there. They rate a horse and figure out if you can read the numbers when the horse is going to run well and when he is going to not.
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Old 04-10-2010, 12:24 PM   #1294
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by omaha hi lo king View Post
DUBLIN is my pick for the day and the ragozins are by far the best horse racing instrument out there. They rate a horse and figure out if you can read the numbers when the horse is going to run well and when he is going to not.
I always thought they could be extremely useful but, you really would have to sharp on trainer patterns and tendencies. I couldn't see using these on multiple tracks. Maybe one or two at a time.
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Old 04-10-2010, 12:39 PM   #1295
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

why was the betfair market suspended on the national today and yesterday evening?

i was going to back hello bud, just as well I couldn't
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Old 04-10-2010, 03:54 PM   #1296
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by omaha hi lo king View Post
DUBLIN is my pick for the day and the ragozins are by far the best horse racing instrument out there. They rate a horse and figure out if you can read the numbers when the horse is going to run well and when he is going to not.
I used Ragozin's for a few years until I learned how their numbers were subjectively manipulated when they "didn't seem right." Due to a more disciplined, scientific approach, Thoro-graph numbers are superior to Ragozin figures. In addition, TG supplies corresponding value-added trainer/jockey/sire metrics. Combined, TG just blows Rags out of the water, imo.

Not only do trainers, owners, and breeders use TG more often than Rags, TG figures are now being used to assign grade levels to stake races by the NTRA (Gr. I, Gr. II, etc...).

For a look into the methodology and an example of figures, TG releases weekly charts on a "race of the week" for free with registration. This week is the Blue Grass Stakes. http://www.thorograph.com/

FYI, their analysis that is contained within the race of the week doesn't do it for me, but the data has... again and again. If anyone wants to get into pattern analysis, using figures, etc. I'll address what I can.
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Old 04-11-2010, 08:44 AM   #1297
DiscreetCat
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Quote:
Originally Posted by omaha hi lo king View Post
DUBLIN is my pick for the day and the ragozins are by far the best horse racing instrument out there. They rate a horse and figure out if you can read the numbers when the horse is going to run well and when he is going to not.
Dublin has yet to win a two-turn race. It's amazing how many peole overlook something like that. How he went off @ 7/5 in the Rebel vs. Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise is completely beyond me.
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Old 04-11-2010, 12:47 PM   #1298
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Updated graded earnings list for the Derby

from Bloodhorse:

Rank, Horse, Earnings (Next start if not Kentucky Derby)

1, Lookin At Lucky, $1480,000
2, Noble’s Promise, $738,000
3, Rule, $645,000
4, Sidney’s Candy, $630,000
5, Eskendereya, $600,000
6, Line of David, $600,000
7, Mission Impazible, $473,434
8, Ice Box, $457,500
9, Stately Victor, $451,112
10, Endorsement, $400,000
11, Conveyance, $386,000
12, American Lion, $378,000
13, Dublin, $373,208
14, Super Saver, $363,832
15, Discreetly Mine, $340,000
16, Dean’s Kitten, $326,475
17, Interactif, $307,950
18, Awesome Act, $285,000
19, Paddy O’Prado, $250,950
20, Homeboykris, $250,500

On the outside looking in, as of April 10, 2010

21, Uh Oh Bango, $237,952
22, Jackson Bend, $230,000

23, Backtalk, $225,916
24, Aikenite, $221,750
25, Make Music For Me, $218,750
26, Odysseus, $183,750
27, A Little Warm, $180,000 (tie)
27, Setsuko, $180,000 (tie)
29, Pleasant Prince, $166,250
30, Tempted to Tapit, $156,000
31, Caracortado, $153,000
32, Yawanna Twist, $147,000 (Preakness Stakes)
33, Connemara, $138,500 (Coolmore Lexington Stakes)
34, Schoolyard Dreams, $137,500
35, Northern Giant, $132,000
36, Eightyfiveinafifty, $120,000 (The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial)
37, First Dude, $97,500
38, Alphie’s Bet, $90,000
39, Drosselmeyer, 487,000 (Coolmore Lexington or Preakness)
40, Pulsion, $85,000
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Old 04-14-2010, 03:04 PM   #1299
M.Honcho
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

Santa Anita 4/14/10

3.) 4-7-2
4.) 2-8-5
5.) 6-1-7
6.) 1-5-4
7.) 8-11-2
8.) 1-3-7

Dont see a lot here today for value,and i am feeling horrible so i wouldnt trust these picks at all.
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Old 04-15-2010, 12:58 AM   #1300
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Re: HORSE RACING THREAD

^^^
About what i expected today,very chalky,5 of 6,but set the conditional wager option and never got met,so no wagers today at all.
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