I keep giving you guys the right races but the wrong bomb keeps coming home unfortunately. Would have never had that $62 winner in that race but what I did find is that that race definitely looked like it had multiple vulnerable favorites and go favorites. Maybe the idea is when I find races like that we just Dutch the long shots

**** Saratoga, very frustrating for the past couple weeks. Irad doesn't give a ****.

Mr Brown how do you plead this morning....

We have Chad on the line calling in from NY,Chad what can we play for you tonight?

Ya man real long night wore the wrong shirt i mean anything but Pink Floyd man listened to drunks tell me every story and sing every song they knew all night finally gave up my belt and shoelaces to get a little peace and quiet and alone time was worth it.

Chad wants you to give him some backside BUT he will not pay for backside (see lawsuit couple years back)

Chad Brown bobble head day Travers day folks (ACTUAL SIZE TOO) do not forget to stop by the NFL meet and great tent as well and meet D. Watson (has weekends off) of the Browns while having HIM tell you how to vote in this years midterms.

Those couple songs for ya Chad...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GZuzlmpbOs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bfrTHAlkz0

___________________


horse racing - everyone knows the vast majority of players don't win in the long run

but how can that be - so many of the players here and at the other major racing forum are so very knowledgeable



I believe I may have a partial answer - other than the obvious reason - the high takeout - it relates to that old Doritos commercial where the guy said "nobody can eat just one"

in other words I believe if the players limited themselves to those races where they had a very strong opinion many would win in the long run



I've had a few winning years but overall I haven't been a long run winner



recently I've changed my strategy and there has been a tremendous improvement and I have won - not big bucks but with me it's more about self pride than it is about $$$$


I recently started limiting myself to betting one race a week - a graded stakes on Saturday where I find something I like - I look at all of the stakes on Saturday


the upside - you can usually find a very tough nag at decent odds


the downside - of course, their competition is much tougher


but it's been working for me and I'm very hopeful and fairly positive about it continuing to work for me


I trained myself to do what Doritos said couldn't be done - I eat just one



.

Its Lay's Potato Chips Man that you can not eat just one...Holy S Man you base your new strategy off a misremembered tv commercial? Recipe for success...JK GL Man

that's not my strategy - obviously - it just describes how often I choose to bet


my strategy is based on speed and pace figures, trip handicapping, jockey and trainer assessment, track conditions, projected and actual odds, pace scenario and assessment of the horse's current condition, and his suitability for the distance


what is your strategy based on______________?


.

You obviously take a joke well man....but i mean Doritos lol...To answer your question as if your someone who thinks they are entitled to it be happy to help. My strategy is myself. I only bet on sure things myself. Give me the PP's the changes the weather and stay the F out of my way has been a recipe served me well. GL

Honcho

Booooooorrrrrrrrrrinnnnnnggggg.

Dink....RIP

Sorry to hear that. Never knew him but enjoyed listening to his interviews from the past few years.

I was happy to see this GoGo was a hell of a rider...Congrats
https://paulickreport.com/horse-care...homebred-ottb/

https://paulickreport.com/news/integ...ay-lose-purse/

What was the understanding to the everyday horseplayer the trainers the owners hell the hot walker with an ear to the ground what HISA was FOR and what HISA was GOING to do...To a person they will ALL say it was to eliminate cheating (drugging horses) and stop the dirty trainers who were drugging horses period. To eliminate the needle trainers. This is so out of F'ng control now the sport imo can not recover. HISA employees are the PETA etc crowd whos arrogance is only exceeded by their ignorance. They will end horse racing as we know it if not all together which is their goal make no doubt with micromanaging bs. This encourages no one. What was the lesson taught here with this action by HISA? Has anyone from HISA ever held a riding crop know what it weighs hell feel what it feels to be hit with it promise you the answer is no BUT they are the regulatory body as if they them self have any clue. HISA is a cancer and will destroy horse racing and really horse racing has itself to blame...When you heard BB say it was Jimmy Barnes patch from a couple years ago surgery probably triggered the positive and treated the man (Steve Byk) like it was a reasonable explanation instead of laughing in his face and telling him straight out he was fos

https://paulickreport.com/news/integ...ing-108000-dq/

Bobby playing hall monitor...Everybody's smiling its a Sunshine Day

https://paulickreport.com/horseplaye...-fridays-card/

Betting Menu for next week

Well we here BC Friday...Not a lot of interest to todays card myself BUT tomorrow has my full attention. Have Saturday's card capped will have up tomorrow morning.

TS has good promo's for today and tomorrow and NYRABets also has some decent perks.

Breeders Cup Saturday 11/5/22

3.) 8-13-1
4.) 8-6-4
5.) 7-5-11
6.) 12-11-3
7.) 9-2-6
8.) 4-13-11
9.) 6-1-2
10.) 2-7-13
11.) 4-6-2

Put myself in the bubble all week listened to nothing but my own opinions and ideas and video and with that came up with these 3 to fade as always

I am in every pool today and a ton of props BUT outside Flightline i am most anxious for Moira. Thought she had an amateur ride last out and still class alone about pulled it off 1st time grass from poly and i think the green playing as quick as it is will be a positive and hope her price stays in the double digit area.

BOL to everyone itt playing today

the euros crushed on the turf today (as usual)...kinda expecting more of the same on Saturday

altho I do like War Like Goddess...hope she wins; the euro contingent for the Turf is weak

would like to beat Flightline and there is a lot of speed in that race. but I really don't see how. your straight exacta in that race may be the way to go.

g/l

Churchill Downs 11/23/22

1.) 1-5-6
2.) 8-12-10
3.) 7-5-2
4.) 12-6-11
5.) 4-7-5
6.) 1-6-4
7.) 1-12-10
8.) 5-8-2
9.) 9-3-1
10.) 6-5-1

Tough card today at CHD but as always those are your 3 to fade

WOW - nice job - I checked the Equibase full charts - a $2.00 3 horse exacta box on your picks would have crushed that card

I checked the equibase charts and I have that strategy winning 5 and losing 5

that strategy would have resulted in a $151 profit on $120 total wagered - a profit of over 100%

DAMN!!! - I've decided to quit my job and just play your picks - please post them every day___________________________(~:/


.

https://paulickreport.com/news/ray-s...s-you-nothing/

Thank You Amira! Knew i liked you

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzJcAV5xR0U
RIP Pele

Good for you DH! Hope he told his brothers via facetime I am starting Sunday...Hooyah

Where da real degens at? Ha!

I'll try to keep up with this thread better than I did last season. I took some time off after the Keeneland meet and Breeders Cup. We got some amazing photos of flightline on the backside at Keeneland. I'll pull them off the camera and post them if anyone wants to see them.

I was down at Gulfstream Park for PWC a few weeks ago and I cashed one ticket the entire day. Luckily it was the one ticket that paid for the entire day of losing + the entire trip. I hit the tri in that specific race, but missed the Superfecta that paid 5 figures because I am a dumbass and didn't all-ball in the 4th spot. Such is the horse racing life. Damned when you do, damned when you don't. LOL

My horse racing goals for 2023 are pretty simple. When I look back over my results from 2022, a few things stand out.

Race types:
> 2 turn dirt route races is my biggest leak.
> 1 turn turf sprints are my best ROIs


Bet Types
> Multiple near misses on p6 tickets. A head bob on of my p6 tickets cost me the difference between being down a few grand last year vs. being up 5 figures
> Highest ROIs were p3s

What I got right in 2022?
> Setting a line. I've become extremely proficient at setting a pretty accurate line on a specific circuit.
> I have perfected a method of finding and handicapping races rapidly that meet my strengths and it allows me to pass on races, where I am weak.

What I got wrong in 2022?
> Slacking on watching race replays
> Not tracking my ROI on races where I watched replays, made my own notes, etc vs. betting strictly off paper
> Overleveraged on the KY Derby -> If Epicenter would have won, it would have made my year and I would have been up 5 figures+ (But I am not beating myself up over it, I got the right price on him in futures pools and such.)
> Testing too many betting strategies
> Bankroll management, of course.
> Spending too much money on data (Falls under testing and tinkering too much)

Going forward in 2023, I'm just going to take what I wrote above and continue to work at getting better at this game. No intentions of making this a 2nd income stream or going pro... but that doesn't mean I am okay with torching cash either. I have some strategies that I like more than others... and i have one strategy that I am not willing to make public... but I would be open to doing so, if I hit a huge payday.

I can't tell you this strategy is brilliant just yet, without more results. I have a small sample of results, but like most things in life, the stars have to align perfectly for me to feel comfortable making said play. You are lucky to get this play 2-3 times a month at all of the tracks in North America, which makes said play hard to find.. but when I have found it, it has been an ATM for me.

I will try to keep posting in this thread throughout the year with picks, insights, my own personal failures, etc!

great post

how valuable is watching replays, are there things you can see that doesn't show up on paper?